Composite
55.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 86.6 | 86.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 16.65 | in index |
| billing conduct | 66.6 | 46.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.37 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 31.4 | 21.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.25 | in index |
| financial risk | 25.9 | 31.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.98 | in index |
| chow risk | 45.0 | 43.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.19 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 46.1 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 61.4 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 31.2 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 21.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 86.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.9 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 4.16 | -1.44 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.30 | -0.15 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.47 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.64 | +0.24 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 4.16 | -0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MD median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.64 | 3.32 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.50 | 3.17 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.70 | 3.36 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 172.0 | 2.64 | 0.25 | 0.77 | 1.63 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 168.7 | 2.73 | 0.20 | 0.82 | 1.71 | 2.47 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 178.0 | 2.55 | 0.14 | 0.81 | 1.59 | 2.35 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 184.7 | 2.38 | 0.12 | 0.92 | 1.34 | 2.21 | 0.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 177.7 | 2.44 | 0.17 | 0.90 | 1.37 | 2.35 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 171.1 | 2.45 | 0.18 | 0.87 | 1.41 | 2.33 | 2.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 170.4 | 2.56 | 0.19 | 0.89 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 0.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 173.0 | 2.67 | 0.21 | 0.94 | 1.53 | 2.61 | 2.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 175.1 | 2.68 | 0.16 | 0.98 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 178.2 | 2.76 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 1.62 | 2.70 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 179.0 | 2.84 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 2.78 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 176.3 | 2.78 | 0.21 | 0.86 | 1.70 | 2.78 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 171.9 | 2.65 | 0.14 | 0.87 | 1.63 | 2.56 | 0.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 159.9 | 2.64 | 0.11 | 0.94 | 1.59 | 2.42 | 6.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 151.6 | 2.76 | 0.18 | 0.95 | 1.63 | 2.51 | 9.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 154.3 | 2.90 | 0.19 | 0.98 | 1.74 | 2.76 | 19.1% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | — |
| 2026-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2026-03-12 |
| 2026-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2026-03-12 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-06 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2023-08-29 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-09-26 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | B | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | B | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | E | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2020-03-17 |
| 2020-01-31 | Health | F0926 | Have policies on smoking. | D | 2020-03-17 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | C | 2019-04-29 |
| 2019-03-15 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | C | 2019-04-29 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBF HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FRANKEL, CHAIM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEK IRRV TR | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KAGAN, JEFFREY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NMJ IRRV TR | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SAVA ACQUISITION LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHAIM FRANKEL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 70% | 2022-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY KAGAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-01 | — | BETHESDA SNF OPERATOR LLC | SSC BETHESDA OPERATING COMPANY LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | FROSTBURG REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 122 | KAYLOR FROSTBURG LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH MOUNTAIN REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 157 | SM REHAB |
| 2024-12-01 | ST. ELIZABETH REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 162 | ST. ELIZABETH OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | SNOW HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 69 | SNOW HILL SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | DENNETT REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | DENNETT SNF |
| 2024-09-01 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 120 | FREDERICK CROSSING OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | BAY HARBOR POST ACUTE HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 305 | BAY HARBOR OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | GREEN ACRES NURSING AND REHAB | — | — | — | 170 | 10200 LA PLATA OPCO LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | COPPER RIDGE NURSING AND ASSISTED LIVING CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | CARROLL MD OPCO LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG | — | — | — | 131 | RESORTS OF AUGSBURG CORP |
| 2023-12-01 | ROSSVILLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 172 | ROSSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | TOWSON REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 132 | TOWSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 0 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,819 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 1 | $2,015 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,113 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 2 | $2,246 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,515 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 3 | $2,835 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,095 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | fmr | 4 | $3,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 24031 | acs median gross | $2,068 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 24031 | acs recent mover gross | $2,226 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,806 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,189 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,652 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,933 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,454 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 20814 | acs median gross | $2,333 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 20814 | acs recent mover gross | $2,568 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,607 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | safmr | 0 | $2,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,196 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | safmr | 1 | $2,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,992 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,448 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | safmr | 2 | $2,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,773 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,087 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | safmr | 3 | $3,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,444 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,636 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 20814 | safmr | 4 | $4,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |