915 CARL ALLEN STREET, MOUNT VERNON, MO 65712 · CCN 265752
Composite
41.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
90
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 41.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
0.56
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.00
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
0.65
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
0.52
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
65.1
0.56
0.00
0.11
0.45
0.65
100.0%
2025Q3
92
70.1
0.60
0.01
0.09
0.51
0.74
100.0%
2025Q2
91
67.0
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.26
100.0%
2025Q1
90
66.3
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.25
99.6%
2024Q4
92
66.6
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.07
100.0%
2024Q3
92
68.6
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.49
40.5%
2024Q2
91
69.8
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.29
95.9%
2024Q1
91
66.7
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.20
57.5%
2023Q4
92
63.3
1.93
0.01
0.00
1.92
1.88
4.6%
2023Q3
92
56.7
1.95
0.04
0.12
1.79
1.82
11.0%
2023Q2
91
54.9
2.24
0.11
0.18
1.95
2.10
0.0%
2023Q1
90
51.3
2.68
0.13
0.50
2.06
2.36
0.2%
2022Q4
92
49.2
2.31
0.04
0.39
1.88
2.02
0.0%
2022Q3
92
36.5
2.98
0.00
0.21
2.77
2.91
16.7%
2022Q2
91
39.2
3.06
0.12
0.40
2.54
2.88
25.0%
2022Q1
90
37.0
3.32
0.13
0.46
2.73
3.13
25.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-03-19
2026-02-02
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-03-19
2025-12-12
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-12-15
2025-12-12
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-12-15
2025-08-13
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
K
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-09-27
2025-08-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-09-27
2025-05-02
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-06-15
2025-05-02
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-06-15
2024-05-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-25
2023-10-10
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-11-24
2023-10-10
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-11-24
2023-09-22
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
E
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-11-05
2023-09-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-11-05
2020-01-21
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2020-03-06
2020-01-21
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
E
2020-03-01
2020-01-21
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2020-03-01
2020-01-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2020-03-06
2020-01-21
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2020-03-06
2020-01-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-03-06
2020-01-21
Health
F0923
Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both.
E
2020-03-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BALDWIN, DARREL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURKS, DYLAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHOATE, H
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
EDEN, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-17
current
pecos_ownership
HILTON, KEVIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUSTON, CESSILY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
MIDWEST PHYSICAL THERAPY PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEWBY, RUSSELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
SPRINGER, MAX
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
WHITESELL, SOPHIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, CHERYL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, TINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CESSILY HUSTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERYL WILLIAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARREL BALDWIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID EDEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DYLAN BURKS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
H CHOATE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN HILTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAX SPRINGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL NEWBY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOPHIE WHITESELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA WILLIAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29109
acs median gross
0
$458
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29109
acs median gross
1
$508
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29109
acs median gross
2
$803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29109
acs median gross
3
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
fmr
3
$1,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29109
acs median gross
4
$1,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
fmr
4
$1,337
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29109
acs median gross
$800
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29109
acs recent mover gross
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs median gross
1
$572
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs median gross
2
$695
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs median gross
3
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs median gross
5
$579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs median gross
$674
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 65712
acs recent mover gross
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 65712
payment standard 110
0
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 90
0
$594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
safmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 110
1
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 90
1
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
safmr
1
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 110
2
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 90
2
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
safmr
2
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 110
4
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
payment standard 90
4
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 65712
safmr
4
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.