Reads as: riskier than 22.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MD median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.20
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.96
3.17
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.29
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
43.2
4.20
0.38
1.40
2.41
3.96
0.1%
2025Q3
92
43.3
4.31
0.38
1.46
2.46
4.09
0.0%
2025Q2
91
41.3
4.21
0.45
1.30
2.46
3.83
0.0%
2025Q1
90
42.0
3.83
0.30
1.31
2.21
3.69
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.0
3.91
0.39
1.15
2.36
3.75
0.0%
2024Q3
92
42.5
4.14
0.46
1.16
2.52
3.91
0.0%
2024Q2
91
44.5
4.03
0.54
1.10
2.39
3.66
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.5
4.15
0.61
1.10
2.43
3.76
0.0%
2023Q4
92
44.2
3.84
0.59
0.85
2.40
3.66
1.9%
2023Q3
92
42.8
4.11
0.70
0.92
2.49
3.78
7.0%
2023Q2
91
42.8
4.15
0.74
0.93
2.47
3.89
8.1%
2023Q1
90
45.5
3.76
0.72
0.86
2.18
3.42
7.5%
2022Q4
92
42.8
4.12
0.69
1.05
2.37
3.90
13.3%
2022Q3
92
40.2
4.46
0.61
1.32
2.52
4.21
16.6%
2022Q2
91
39.2
4.50
0.53
1.27
2.70
4.44
22.6%
2022Q1
90
40.4
4.33
0.70
1.10
2.53
4.12
13.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
25
B × 1D × 16E × 8
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-20
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-04-22
2026-03-20
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-04-22
2024-12-12
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
E
2025-01-26
2024-12-12
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-01-26
2020-02-27
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2020-04-11
2020-02-27
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2020-04-11
2019-04-11
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2019-05-15
2019-04-11
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2019-05-15
2019-04-11
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2019-05-15
2019-04-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
B
2019-05-15
2019-04-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-05-15
2019-04-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2019-05-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BERNSTEIN, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
COELHO, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
FALCO, DENISE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
FRANTZ, EDWARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, TONY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
KESSLER, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
KIM, CECILIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-07
current
pecos_ownership
NASRAWY, CINDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
O'RIORDAN, DAMIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
PAINTER, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
ROYAL, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
SEKEL, WENDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
WELLS, ANJA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
WELLS, ANJA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-16
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OPCO GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER TRS HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW COELHO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANJA WELLS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANJA WELLS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CECILIA KIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA BERNSTEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY NASRAWY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAMIEN O'RIORDAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID PAINTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENISE FALCO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD FRANTZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA THOMPSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA ROYAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS KESSLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONY HARRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDY SEKEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 24031
acs median gross
0
$1,685
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
0
$1,953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
1
$1,819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
1
$2,015
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
2
$2,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
2
$2,246
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
3
$2,515
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
4
$3,095
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
fmr
4
$3,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 24031
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
acs median gross
$2,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 24031
acs recent mover gross
$2,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
0
$1,464
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
1
$1,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
2
$2,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
3
$2,290
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
4
$2,588
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
5
$3,000
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs median gross
$1,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 20906
acs recent mover gross
$1,916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 20906
payment standard 110
0
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 90
0
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
safmr
0
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 110
1
$2,156
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 90
1
$1,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
safmr
1
$1,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 110
2
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 90
2
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
safmr
2
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 110
3
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 90
3
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
safmr
3
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 110
4
$3,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
payment standard 90
4
$2,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 20906
safmr
4
$3,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.