Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,451–1,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1451	SEVIERVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	90.5	B	TN	SEVIERVILLE	98	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
1452	FOREST HILL MANOR	1.8%	90.5	D	ME	FORT KENT	45	—
1453	SANFORD CARE CENTER VERMILLION	1.8%	90.5	D	SD	VERMILLION	66	—
1454	Town Hall Estates Keene, Inc.	1.8%	90.5	F	TX	Keene	126	—
1455	HOMEWOOD LIVING MARTINSBURG, INC	1.8%	90.5	A	PA	MARTINSBURG	129	—
1456	La Bella of Sterling	1.8%	90.5	D	IL	STERLING	70	—
1457	RESIDENCES AT VANTAGE POINT	1.8%	90.5	A	MD	COLUMBIA	44	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1458	Premier Living and Rehab Center	1.8%	90.5	F	NC	Lake Waccamaw	127	—
1459	AMS Memorial-Greene	1.8%	90.5	B	IA	Greene	31	—
1460	SITTER AND BARFOOT VETERANS CARE CENTER	1.8%	90.5	A	VA	RICHMOND	200	—
1461	EASTERN STAR HOME OF SOUTH DAKOTA, INC	1.8%	90.5	A	SD	REDFIELD	30	—
1462	Heritage of Webster County	1.8%	90.5	C	NE	Red Cloud	43	—
1463	The Gilbert Residence	1.8%	90.5	A	MI	Ypsilanti	32	—
1464	SMP HEALTH - MARYHILL	1.8%	90.5	A	ND	ENDERLIN	42	SISTERS OF MARY OF THE PRESENTATION LONG TERM CARE
1465	LORETTO LIVING CENTER AT LORETTO MOTHERHOUSE, INC	1.8%	90.5	A	KY	Nerinx	55	—
1466	Eventide Lutheran Home	1.8%	90.5	A	MN	MOORHEAD	145	BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
1467	SACRED HEART HOME INC	1.8%	90.4	A	MD	HYATTSVILLE	44	—
1468	Christwood	1.8%	90.4	A	LA	COVINGTON	30	GREENBRIER SENIOR LIVING LLC
1469	NORTH VALLEY HOSPITAL	1.8%	90.4	B	WA	TONASKET	42	—
1470	CROWLEY RIDGE CARE CENTER	1.8%	90.4	B	MO	DEXTER	90	—
1471	ATTALLA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.8%	90.4	B	AL	ATTALLA	182	—
1472	DAUGHTERS OF SARAH NURSING CENTER	1.8%	90.4	A	NY	ALBANY	210	—
1473	IROQUOIS NURSING HOME INC	1.8%	90.4	A	NY	JAMESVILLE	160	—
1474	THE VILLAGE AT ROCKVILLE	1.8%	90.4	B	MD	ROCKVILLE	160	—
1475	PORT LAVACA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	90.4	C	TX	PORT LAVACA	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
1476	TREMPEALEAU CTY HCC IMD	1.8%	90.3	A	WI	WHITEHALL	34	—
1477	Harmony Care at Brookshire	1.8%	90.3	D	TX	Brookshire	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1478	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE, INC	1.8%	90.3	A	AR	LITTLE ROCK	70	—
1479	HOLLIDAYSBURG VETERANS HOME	1.8%	90.3	A	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	257	—
1480	Unity Living Center	1.8%	90.3	B	NY	Rochester	120	—
1481	Avir at Beaumont	1.8%	90.3	C	TX	BEAUMONT	0	BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1482	WYOMING COUNTY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL S N F	1.8%	90.3	A	NY	WARSAW	138	—
1483	NORWALK MEMORIAL HOME	1.8%	90.3	A	OH	NORWALK	69	FISHER TITUS HEALTH
1484	SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA VETERAN'S CENTER	1.8%	90.3	A	PA	SPRING CITY	238	—
1485	MOUNT SAINT JOSEPH REHAB CENTER	1.8%	90.3	B	OH	EUCLID	90	—
1486	THE PINES HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTERS OLEAN CAMPUS	1.8%	90.3	A	NY	OLEAN	120	COUNTY OF CATTARAUGUS
1487	BOCA RATON REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	90.3	B	FL	BOCA RATON	120	—
1488	KNUTE NELSON CARE CENTER	1.8%	90.3	A	MN	ALEXANDRIA	83	VIVIE
1489	Kahl Home for the Aged & Infirmed	1.8%	90.3	B	IA	Davenport	135	—
1490	SONTERRA HEALTH CENTER	1.8%	90.3	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
1491	Givens Health Center	1.8%	90.2	A	NC	Asheville	70	GIVENS ESTATES INC
1492	AUBURN HOME IN WACONIA	1.8%	90.2	C	MN	WACONIA	37	—
1493	Carroll Lutheran Village	1.8%	90.2	B	MD	WESTMINSTER	72	SODEXHO INC
1494	ASBURY SOLOMONS	1.8%	90.2	A	MD	SOLOMONS	48	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
1495	Calvert City Convalescent Center	1.8%	90.2	A	KY	Calvert City	95	—
1496	TIPPAH COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.8%	90.2	A	MS	RIPLEY	40	—
1497	BUFFALO LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.8%	90.2	A	MN	BUFFALO LAKE	49	—
1498	St. Joseph's Villa, Inc.	1.8%	90.2	C	NE	David City	58	—
1499	LOCUST GROVE VILLAGE	1.8%	90.2	B	KS	LA CROSSE	38	—
1500	LAURELBROOK NURSING HOME	1.8%	90.2	A	TN	DAYTON	50	—

Showing 1,451–1,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.