Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,751–1,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1751	Allendale Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	5.1%	89.6	B	MI	Allendale	60	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1752	Bella Vita Health and Rehabilitation Center	5.1%	89.6	A	AZ	GLENDALE	176	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1753	Omni Continuing Care	5.1%	89.6	C	MI	Detroit	136	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
1754	Champions Healthcare at Willowbrook	5.1%	89.6	D	TX	Houston	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
1755	WOODLAND CARE CENTER	5.1%	89.6	C	CA	RESEDA	157	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1756	COBALT LODGE HEALTH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.1%	89.6	D	CT	COBALT	60	—
1757	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING MALDEN	5.1%	89.6	C	MO	MALDEN	58	CHP SNFCO LLC
1758	ROCKDALE ESTATES & REHABILITATION	5.1%	89.6	C	TX	ROCKDALE	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1759	RUSHVILLE NURSING & REHAB CTR	5.1%	89.6	D	IL	RUSHVILLE	96	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
1760	PruittHealth-Farmville	5.1%	89.6	A	NC	Farmville	56	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1761	Green Country Care Center	5.1%	89.6	B	OK	Tulsa	114	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
1762	Vian Nursing & Rehab, LLC	5.1%	89.6	B	OK	Vian	133	—
1763	ROSE VILLA HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.1%	89.6	B	CA	BELLFLOWER	53	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1764	ANSLEY COVE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	5.1%	89.6	B	FL	MAITLAND	39	—
1765	DIVERSICARE OF COUNCIL GROVE	5.1%	89.5	B	KS	COUNCIL GROVE	60	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
1766	AUTUMN CARE OF MADISON	5.1%	89.5	B	VA	MADISON	92	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1767	GROVES CENTER	5.1%	89.5	F	FL	LAKE WALES	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
1768	The Inn at Freedom Village	5.1%	89.5	A	MI	Holland	39	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1769	HOUSTON TRANSITIONAL CARE	5.0%	89.5	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1770	DYER NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.0%	89.5	D	IN	DYER	161	MAJOR HOSPITAL
1771	Rock Hill Post Acute Care Center	5.0%	89.5	A	SC	Rock Hill	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1772	Santa Fe Health & Rehabilitation Center	5.0%	89.5	B	TX	Weatherford	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
1773	PIONEER CARE AND REHABILITATION	5.0%	89.5	B	MT	DILLON	87	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
1774	MEDICALODGES WICHITA	5.0%	89.5	A	KS	WICHITA	55	MEDICALODGES INC
1775	The Center At Val Vista, Llc	5.0%	89.5	A	AZ	GILBERT	96	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
1776	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF NEWPORT	5.0%	89.5	B	OR	NEWPORT	52	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
1777	THE KING'S DAUGHTERS & SONS NURSING HOME	5.0%	89.5	C	OK	DURANT	65	ARCP HEALTH LP
1778	Brunswick Cove Nursing Center	5.0%	89.4	B	NC	Winnabow	175	—
1779	SIENNA SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	5.0%	89.4	B	OH	WINTERSVILLE	88	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
1780	HILLCREST CENTER	5.0%	89.4	B	PA	WYNCOTE	180	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1781	HICKORY CREEK OF ATHENS	5.0%	89.4	A	OH	THE PLAINS	90	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
1782	The Laurels of Hudsonville	5.0%	89.4	C	MI	Hudsonville	108	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
1783	LAREDO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.0%	89.4	C	TX	LAREDO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1784	LEXINGTON POST ACUTE	5.0%	89.4	F	TN	LEXINGTON	118	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
1785	PRUITTHEALTH - GRIFFIN	5.0%	89.4	B	GA	GRIFFIN	69	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1786	BRIARWOOD VILLAGE	5.0%	89.4	C	OH	COLDWATER	112	HCF INC
1787	DUNMORE HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.4	D	PA	DUNMORE	92	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1788	CENTER AT WATERFRONT LLC	5.0%	89.4	B	KS	WICHITA	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
1789	SCHOENBRUNN HEALTHCARE	5.0%	89.4	C	OH	NEW PHILADELPHIA	95	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
1790	BRENTWOOD PLACE TWO	5.0%	89.4	B	TX	DALLAS	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1791	CYPRESS GROVE REHABILITATION CENTER	5.0%	89.4	A	IN	NEWBURGH	90	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
1792	HARVARD GARDENS REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.4	C	OH	CLEVELAND	130	STELLAR CARE GROUP LLC
1793	Medilodge of Frankenmuth	5.0%	89.4	B	MI	Frankenmuth	105	B&Y TRUST
1794	Oaklawn Care & Rehabilitation Center	5.0%	89.4	B	MN	MANKATO	60	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
1795	Springdale Healthcare Center	5.0%	89.4	B	SC	Camden	148	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
1796	ST CATHERINES MANOR OF WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE	5.0%	89.4	A	OH	WASHINGTON COURT HOU	55	HCF INC
1797	Powdersville Post-Acute	5.0%	89.4	B	SC	Easley	60	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1798	Fall Creek Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	5.0%	89.4	C	TX	Humble	0	LTC HOUSTON MANAGEMENT LLC
1799	HAMPSHIRE CENTER	5.0%	89.4	B	WV	ROMNEY	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1800	Tri Cities Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	5.0%	89.3	B	KY	Cumberland	85	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC

Showing 1,751–1,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.