Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,851–2,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2851	EMILY P. BISSELL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	DE	WILMINGTON	—	—
2852	PARK VIEW CARE CENTER OF BURLI	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	BURLINGTON	—	—
2853	ST JOSEPH TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	ID	LEWISTON	—	—
2854	FAIR PARK HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	HENDERSON	—	—
2855	THE LIVING CENTER OF CHILDRESS	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CHILDRESS	0	—
2856	HARMONY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SARASOTA	0	—
2857	MOUNTAINVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	MONTGOMERY	0	—
2858	TANNER MED CTR SUBACUTE CARE U	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	CARROLLTON	—	—
2859	GOVALLE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	AUSTIN	—	—
2860	COMMUNITY CARE CENTER OF CLARENDON	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CLARENDON	0	—
2861	CENTRAL COAST NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SANTA BARBARA	—	—
2862	HARMARVILLE TRANSITIONAL REHABILITATION UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	PITTSBURGH	—	—
2863	Western Kentucky Veterans Center	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	HANSON	—	—
2864	TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	TIFTON	—	—
2865	EAST PEORIA GARDENS HLTHCR CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	EAST PEORIA	0	—
2866	FREEMAN HOSPITAL AND HEALTH SYSTEM	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	JOPLIN	—	—
2867	SMITH NURSING HOME INC	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CANTON	—	—
2868	IRVINGTON NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	—	—
2869	TAHOKA CARE CENTER, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TAHOKA	0	—
2870	WAKEMED ZEBULON/WENDELL OUTPATIENT & SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	ZEBULON	—	—
2871	GREAT PLAINS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	B	TX	DUMAS	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
2872	Rocky Mountain Care - Riverton	0.6%	77.5	B	UT	Riverton	40	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
2873	VERNON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	VERNON	0	—
2874	HUNTINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	EL SERENO	0	—
2875	GREENS AT CREEKSIDE, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	KANSAS CITY	—	—
2876	TEXAN NURSING & REHAB OF WACO LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WACO	—	—
2877	OWATONNA CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	OWATONNA	0	—
2878	NORTH LAKE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	MERRILLVILLE	0	—
2879	NEW BOSTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	NEW BOSTON	—	—
2880	WOODLAND VIEW CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	TULSA	0	—
2881	CLAYSTONE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ENNIS	—	—
2882	ST MARY'S HEALTHCARE T C DEMONSTRATION PROJECT	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	AMSTERDAM	—	—
2883	SAINT ANNS NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PANHANDLE	0	—
2884	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - GLENWOOD LAKEVIEW	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	GLENWOOD	0	—
2885	BRIARWOOD CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	SOUTH AMBOY	0	—
2886	HALIFAX REGIONAL HOSPITAL SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	—	—
2887	GILMAN CARE CENTER, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	GILMAN	—	—
2888	HUDSON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	SD	HUDSON	—	—
2889	MISSION BAY CONVALESCENT HOSPI	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	—	—
2890	COLONIAL HEIGHTS	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	LAWRENCE	—	—
2891	PARKVIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PARIS	—	—
2892	FOREST HILLS OF DC	0.6%	77.5	B	DC	WASHINGTON	55	—
2893	TOPEKA COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	TOPEKA	—	—
2894	PARK PLAZA	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MART	—	—
2895	OUR LADY OF THE LAKE HOSPITAL- SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	BATON ROUGE	—	—
2896	DAHL MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MT	EKALAKA	—	—
2897	CARE LIVING CENTER OF EDMOND	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	EDMOND	0	—
2898	MIAMI HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CLEVES	0	—
2899	HILLTOP HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	ANSONIA	—	—
2900	RESIDENCE AT GREYSTONE, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—

Showing 2,851–2,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.