Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,151–3,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3151	Mansfield Nursing Center	3.5%	81.3	B	LA	MANSFIELD	100	THE VERNICE C WRIGHT IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3152	EL RENO POST-ACUTE REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	81.3	A	OK	EL RENO	66	—
3153	LONG BEACH POST ACUTE	3.5%	81.3	A	CA	LONG BEACH	78	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
3154	FALLS VILLAGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.5%	81.3	B	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	108	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
3155	THE LAURELS OF WILLOW CREEK	3.5%	81.3	A	VA	MIDLOTHIAN	120	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3156	Medilodge of Plymouth	3.5%	81.3	A	MI	Plymouth	39	B&Y TRUST
3157	ARBORS AT MIFFLIN	3.5%	81.3	B	OH	MANSFIELD	99	B&Y TRUST
3158	South Kingstown Nurs. & Rehab Ctr	3.5%	81.3	B	RI	West Kingston	112	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
3159	GRANBY HOUSE	3.5%	81.3	A	MO	GRANBY	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3160	PARK MANOR LTD	3.5%	81.3	A	WI	PARK FALLS	92	—
3161	Lakeview Manor Healthcare Center	3.5%	81.3	A	MI	Tawas City	60	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3162	CHATEAU NRSG & REHAB CENTER	3.5%	81.3	C	IL	WILLOWBROOK	150	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
3163	MEADVILLE CONVALESCENT HOME	3.5%	81.3	A	MS	MEADVILLE	60	—
3164	Medilodge of Kalamazoo	3.5%	81.3	A	MI	Kalamazoo	39	B&Y TRUST
3165	The Laurels of Carson City	3.5%	81.3	D	MI	Carson City	82	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3166	SIERRA VISTA HEALTHCARE	3.5%	81.3	B	CA	FRESNO	99	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
3167	FLORENCE NURSING HOME	3.5%	81.3	A	IL	MARENGO	56	—
3168	Aloha Nursing & Rehab Centre	3.5%	81.2	C	HI	Kaneohe	141	—
3169	FIESER NURSING CENTER	3.5%	81.2	C	MO	FENTON	47	—
3170	CENTER AT LOWRY, LLC	3.5%	81.2	B	CO	DENVER	96	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
3171	OAKS AT BETHESDA THE	3.5%	81.2	C	OH	ZANESVILLE	55	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3172	LAKEPOINT WICHITA, LLC	3.5%	81.2	A	KS	WICHITA	110	—
3173	Chatham Health & Rehabilitation Center	3.5%	81.2	B	VA	CHATHAM	85	BNV DYNASTY LLC
3174	Regency At Bluffs Park	3.5%	81.2	B	MI	Ann Arbor	71	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3175	RIVER VALLEY CARE CENTER	3.5%	81.2	A	CA	LIVE OAK	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3176	JEFFERSON CITY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	3.5%	81.2	B	TN	JEFFERSON CITY	170	B&Y TRUST
3177	AVALON HEALTH CARE CENTER AT STONERIDGE	3.5%	81.2	B	CT	MYSTIC	40	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
3178	Wilson Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.5%	81.2	B	NC	Wilson	108	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
3179	ARLINGTON CARE CENTER	3.5%	81.2	A	OH	NEWARK	110	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3180	TENNESSEE VETERANS HOME	3.5%	81.2	B	TN	MURFREESBORO	140	TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME BOARD
3181	Medilodge of Sterling	3.5%	81.2	A	MI	Sterling	39	B&Y TRUST
3182	SARASOTA POINT REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	81.2	B	FL	SARASOTA	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3183	VIENNA SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	3.5%	81.2	C	OH	DAYTON	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3184	AVANTE AT BOCA RATON, INC.	3.5%	81.1	A	FL	BOCA RATON	144	AG HOLDINGS INC
3185	AVON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	81.1	B	IN	AVON	137	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3186	Arabella Health and Wellness of Red Bay	3.5%	81.1	A	AL	RED BAY	90	—
3187	Madison Health and Rehabilitation	3.5%	81.1	C	NC	Mars Hill	100	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
3188	AVANTE AT ORMOND BEACH, INC	3.5%	81.1	B	FL	ORMOND BEACH	133	AG HOLDINGS INC
3189	HENNESSEY NURSING & REHAB	3.5%	81.1	A	OK	HENNESSEY	50	—
3190	BEARE MANOR	3.5%	81.1	A	OK	HARTSHORNE	60	—
3191	MARQUIS HOPE VILLAGE	3.5%	81.1	A	OR	CANBY	50	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
3192	THE SPRINGS AT PACIFIC REGENT	3.5%	81.1	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	59	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3193	PARKWAY HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.5%	81.1	A	CA	LA MESA	60	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
3194	CHAFFEE NURSING CENTER	3.5%	81.1	B	MO	CHAFFEE	71	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
3195	MARION POINTE	3.5%	81.1	A	OH	MARION	45	JAG HEALTHCARE INC
3196	TRUEMAN POINTE CARE CENTER	3.5%	81.0	A	OH	HILLIARD	72	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3197	CREEKSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.5%	81.0	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	120	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3198	Cypress Pointe Rehabilitation Center	3.5%	81.0	A	NC	Wilmington	90	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3199	LEXINGTON NURSING HOME, INC.	3.5%	81.0	A	OK	LEXINGTON	70	—
3200	CARE ONE AT WILMINGTON	3.5%	81.0	B	MA	WILMINGTON	132	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 3,151–3,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.