Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,101–3,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3101	Hendersonville Health and Rehabilitation	3.6%	81.6	B	NC	Flat Rock	130	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
3102	SPRINGS OF LIMA THE	3.6%	81.6	B	OH	LIMA	56	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3103	Franciscan Villa	3.6%	81.6	B	OK	Broken Arrow	110	DIAKONOS GROUP LLC
3104	MS CARE CENTER OF MORTON	3.6%	81.6	A	MS	MORTON	120	—
3105	Ambassador Health of Omaha	3.6%	81.6	A	NE	Omaha	146	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
3106	YORK NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	81.6	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	240	—
3107	Lake Way Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.6%	81.6	B	KY	Benton	96	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
3108	Southgate Health Care Center	3.6%	81.6	D	IL	METROPOLIS	140	—
3109	MARQUIS TUALATIN POST ACUTE REHAB	3.6%	81.6	A	OR	TUALATIN	54	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
3110	The Oaks Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.6%	81.6	C	OH	ZANESVILLE	75	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3111	SUNLAND POST ACUTE	3.6%	81.6	C	CA	SUNLAND	121	NEW VISTA PAC HB OPERATOR LLC
3112	The Villa at Silverbell Estates	3.6%	81.5	C	MI	Orion	106	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
3113	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ESTERO	3.6%	81.5	B	FL	ESTERO	155	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3114	SILVERSTONE PLACE	3.6%	81.5	C	MO	ROLLA	110	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3115	WILLOW TREE HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.6%	81.5	B	WV	CHARLES TOWN	104	RRW LLC
3116	ABINGDON CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	81.5	C	NJ	GREEN BROOK	180	—
3117	TORRANCE CARE CENTER WEST, INC	3.6%	81.5	B	CA	TORRANCE	195	—
3118	NHC Healthcare - Greenwood	3.6%	81.5	C	SC	Greenwood	152	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3119	Tabor Manor Care Center	3.6%	81.5	C	IA	Tabor	46	—
3120	VIEW RIDGE CARE CENTER	3.6%	81.5	A	WA	EVERETT	70	NIGHTINGALE HEALTHCARE LLC
3121	VERMONT HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.6%	81.5	F	CA	TORRANCE	200	—
3122	HOLSTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	81.5	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	94	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3123	Whispering Pines Nursing and Rehab, LLC	3.6%	81.5	C	WI	Ripon	50	—
3124	TRINITY HEALTH CARE OF MINGO	3.6%	81.5	A	WV	WILLIAMSON	90	TRINITY HEALTH CARE SERVICES INC
3125	Medilodge of Holland	3.6%	81.5	A	MI	Holland	77	B&Y TRUST
3126	Bennington Health & Rehab	3.6%	81.5	D	VT	Bennington	91	—
3127	Jefferson Healthcare Center	3.6%	81.5	A	LA	Jefferson	222	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
3128	OCALA OAKS REHABILITATION CENTER	3.6%	81.4	B	FL	OCALA	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3129	Water's Edge Center For Health & Rehab	3.6%	81.4	C	CT	MIDDLETOWN	150	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3130	HILLCREST NURSING CENTER	3.6%	81.4	A	MS	MAGEE	100	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3131	Waterman Canyon Post Acute	3.6%	81.4	A	CA	San Bernardino	166	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3132	Lexington House	3.6%	81.4	A	LA	ALEXANDRIA	130	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3133	DELMAR GARDENS OF GWINNETT	3.6%	81.4	B	GA	LAWRENCEVILLE	67	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
3134	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PALM BAY	3.6%	81.4	A	FL	PALM BAY	141	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3135	AVANTE AT ORLANDO INC	3.6%	81.4	A	FL	ORLANDO	118	AG HOLDINGS INC
3136	PruittHealth- Walterboro	3.6%	81.4	B	SC	Walterboro	132	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3137	PruittHealth- Blythewood	3.6%	81.4	B	SC	Columbia	120	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
3138	LAURELS OF BLANCHESTER, THE	3.5%	81.3	C	OH	BLANCHESTER	50	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3139	PACIFIC POST ACUTE	3.5%	81.3	C	CA	SANTA MONICA	49	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
3140	Milwaukee Health and Rehab	3.5%	81.3	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	95	—
3141	CARMEL MOUNTAIN REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.5%	81.3	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3142	GORDON LANE CARE CENTER	3.5%	81.3	B	CA	FULLERTON	99	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
3143	JEFF DAVIS LIVING CENTER, LLC	3.5%	81.3	B	LA	JENNINGS	120	—
3144	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT SALEM COUNTY	3.5%	81.3	C	NJ	SALEM	116	—
3145	The Laurels of Chatham	3.5%	81.3	A	NC	Pittsboro	140	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3146	Maple Woods Manor	3.5%	81.3	A	MI	Clio	151	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
3147	RIVER OAKS RETIREMENT MANOR	3.5%	81.3	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	100	—
3148	VENETIAN GARDENS	3.5%	81.3	A	OH	LOVELAND	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3149	The Willows at Hamburg	3.5%	81.3	B	KY	Lexington	64	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3150	OZARK REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.5%	81.3	D	MO	OSAGE BEACH	60	—

Showing 3,101–3,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.