Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,451–3,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3451	Cathedral Village	0.6%	77.5	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	82	PHI
3452	LARCHWOOD LODGE NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	NORTH WALTHAM	0	—
3453	Blue Ridge Health Care Center	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Raleigh	0	—
3454	Red Oak Rehab and Care Center	0.6%	77.3	B	IA	Red Oak	58	LANTIS ENTERPRISES INC
3455	Clarksville Skilled Nursing & Rehab Center	0.6%	77.3	A	IA	Clarksville	42	—
3456	Country Manor Health & Rehab Ctr	0.6%	77.3	A	MN	SARTELL	131	CONTINUUMS MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
3457	ALLEGIANT WELLNESS AND REHAB	0.6%	77.3	A	TX	CROWLEY	0	—
3458	LUTHER OAKS	0.6%	77.3	A	IL	BLOOMINGTON	19	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
3459	DADE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.6%	77.3	B	GA	TRENTON	71	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
3460	Odebolt Specialty Care	0.6%	77.3	B	IA	Odebolt	38	CARE INITIATIVES
3461	ST PETERS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.3	C	NY	ALBANY	160	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
3462	SPRINGFIELD NURSING & INDEPENDENT LIVING	0.6%	77.3	F	OH	SPRINGFIELD	90	—
3463	BRADLEY HOME INFIRMARY/PAVILION	0.6%	77.3	B	CT	MERIDEN	30	—
3464	BAYLEY PLACE	0.6%	77.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	110	—
3465	Algona Manor Care Center	0.6%	77.3	A	IA	Algona	46	THOMAS F JUCKETTE MARITAL TRUST
3466	LAWRENCE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL SNF	0.6%	77.3	A	KS	LAWRENCE	14	—
3467	PRINCE OF PEACE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.3	A	ND	ELLENDALE	55	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
3468	THE TERRACES AT SAN JOAQUIN GARDENS VILLAGE	0.6%	77.3	A	CA	FRESNO	54	HUMANGOOD
3469	COUNTRYSIDE POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.3	A	TN	LAWRENCEBURG	162	—
3470	Mt Greylock Extended Care Facility	0.6%	77.3	A	MA	PITTSFIELD	100	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
3471	Beadles Nursing Home	0.6%	77.3	C	OK	Alva	74	—
3472	Woodview Home, Inc.	0.6%	77.3	A	OK	ARDMORE	68	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
3473	SAMARITAN KEEP NURSING HOME INC	0.6%	77.3	C	NY	WATERTOWN	272	—
3474	AVENUES AT SPRINGFIELD	0.6%	77.3	C	IL	SPRINGFIELD	65	—
3475	STONEBRIDGE AT MONTGOMERY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.3	A	NJ	SKILLMAN	50	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
3476	BELL TRACE HEALTH AND LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.3	B	IN	BLOOMINGTON	90	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3477	ENGLEWOOD HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.3	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	64	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3478	HAZEL HAWKINS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.6%	77.3	A	CA	HOLLISTER	119	—
3479	Alpine Meadow Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.6%	77.3	A	UT	West Valley City	42	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
3480	EMPRESS CARE CENTER, LLC	0.6%	77.3	B	CA	SAN JOSE	67	—
3481	Corydon Specialty Care	0.6%	77.2	B	IA	Corydon	71	CARE INITIATIVES
3482	LUTHERAN CONVALESCENT HOME	0.6%	77.2	B	MO	WEBSTER GROVES	251	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
3483	SHADY LAWN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.2	C	OH	DALTON	98	—
3484	Mechanicsville Specialty Care	0.6%	77.2	A	IA	Mechanicsville	39	CARE INITIATIVES
3485	Amelia Manor Nursing Home	0.6%	77.2	B	LA	Lafayette	151	—
3486	BRUCE MCCANDLESS CO STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.2	F	CO	FLORENCE	105	STATE OF COLORADO
3487	QUAIL RIDGE LIVING CENTER, INC	0.6%	77.2	A	OK	COLCORD	120	—
3488	MERRIMACK COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.2	C	NH	BOSCAWEN	290	—
3489	Trinity Ridge	0.6%	77.2	A	NC	Hickory	120	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
3490	ASHTON CREEK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.2	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	139	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3491	MEADOWS ON FAIRVIEW	0.6%	77.2	A	MN	WYOMING	14	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3492	W D BILL MANNING TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME	0.6%	77.2	A	TN	HUMBOLDT	140	TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME BOARD
3493	Whispering Pines Nursing & Rehab Center	0.6%	77.2	B	NC	Fayetteville	86	—
3494	Aberdeen Rehabilitation and Skilled Nursing Center	0.6%	77.2	B	MI	Trenton	120	—
3495	NORRIDGE GARDENS	0.6%	77.2	D	IL	NORRIDGE	292	—
3496	PERSIMMON RIDGE REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.6%	77.2	B	IN	PORTLAND	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3497	Sunrise Hill Care Center	0.6%	77.2	A	IA	Traer	76	—
3498	HIGH SHOALS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.2	A	GA	BISHOP	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3499	EASTERN MONTANA VETERANS HOME	0.6%	77.2	C	MT	GLENDIVE	80	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
3500	MARTHA AND MARY HEALTH SERVICE	0.6%	77.2	C	WA	POULSBO	135	—

Showing 3,451–3,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.