Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

401–450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
401	MEDICALODGES EUDORA	9.9%	97.6	C	KS	EUDORA	65	MEDICALODGES INC
402	ETOWAH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	9.9%	97.6	C	TN	ETOWAH	120	JOHN M FAUST LIVING TRUST
403	ROSEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER	9.9%	97.6	C	NV	RENO	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
404	The Villa at the Bay	9.9%	97.6	D	MI	Petoskey	110	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
405	Tower Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	9.9%	97.6	C	NC	Raleigh	180	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
406	Mount Ayr Health Care Center	9.9%	97.6	A	IA	Mount Ayr	46	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
407	LAKEVIEW HOUSE SKLD NRSG AND RESIDENTIAL CARE FAC	9.9%	97.6	A	MA	HAVERHILL	91	—
408	NHC HEALTHCARE, DESLOGE	9.9%	97.6	C	MO	DESLOGE	120	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
409	LIFE CARE CENTER OF HALTOM	9.9%	97.6	B	TX	FORT WORTH	0	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
410	WILLOWDALE VILLAGE	9.8%	97.6	B	IN	DALE	50	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
411	SHADY OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.8%	97.6	D	MO	THAYER	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
412	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GREENEVILLE	9.8%	97.6	B	TN	GREENEVILLE	161	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
413	Saint Albans Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	9.8%	97.6	C	VT	Saint Albans	115	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
414	Dogwood Trails Manor	9.8%	97.6	B	TX	Woodville	0	CREATIVE SOLUTIONS IN HEALTHCARE INC
415	PREMIER CARE CENTER FOR PALM SPRINGS	9.8%	97.5	C	CA	PALM SPRINGS	99	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
416	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF COOS BAY	9.8%	97.5	C	OR	COOS BAY	92	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
417	Avir at Burkburnett	9.8%	97.5	C	TX	BURKBURNETT	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
418	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF FENTRESS COUNTY	9.7%	97.5	C	TN	JAMESTOWN	140	WHEATEN LLC
419	Pembroke Center	9.7%	97.5	C	NC	Pembroke	84	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
420	Clarion Wellness and Rehabilitation Center	9.7%	97.5	C	IA	Clarion	76	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
421	LAWSON MANOR & REHAB	9.7%	97.5	C	MO	LAWSON	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
422	APERION CARE ARBORS MICHIGAN CITY	9.7%	97.5	F	IN	MICHIGAN CITY	180	MAJOR HOSPITAL
423	Metairie Health Care Center	9.7%	97.5	C	LA	METAIRIE	202	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
424	Sage Bluff Health and Rehab Center	9.7%	97.5	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	84	MAJOR HOSPITAL
425	WATERS OF COVINGTON, THE	9.7%	97.5	C	IN	COVINGTON	119	MAJOR HOSPITAL
426	Greenville Operations RI LLC DBA Greenville Skille	9.6%	97.5	D	RI	Greenville	131	MAYFLOWER HEALTHCARE LLC
427	Wisteria Place	9.6%	97.5	C	TX	Abilene	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
428	WESTERN PRAIRIE SENIOR LIVING LLC	9.6%	97.5	C	KS	ULYSSES	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
429	Crittenden County Health & Rehabilitation Center	9.6%	97.5	C	KY	Marion	101	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
430	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MICHIGAN CITY	9.6%	97.5	C	IN	MICHIGAN CITY	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
431	OAKS - BETHANY SKILLED NURSING, THE	9.6%	97.4	B	GA	VIDALIA	168	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
432	Bloomfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	9.6%	97.4	C	NM	Bloomfield	95	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
433	Colonial Manor Nursing Center	9.6%	97.4	D	TX	Cleburne	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
434	NHC HEALTHCARE, KENNETT	9.6%	97.4	C	MO	KENNETT	170	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
435	PARKERSBURG CENTER	9.6%	97.4	B	WV	PARKERSBURG	66	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
436	PAONIA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	9.6%	97.4	D	CO	PAONIA	60	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
437	Landmark of Cicero Rehabilitation and Nursing Cent	9.6%	97.4	F	IL	CICERO	485	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
438	Courtney Manor	9.6%	97.4	D	MI	Bad Axe	125	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
439	THE EARLWOOD	9.6%	97.4	D	CA	TORRANCE	87	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
440	NHC HEALTHCARE, JOPLIN	9.6%	97.4	C	MO	JOPLIN	124	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
441	Regency Care Center	9.6%	97.4	C	IA	Norwalk	101	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
442	Good Samaritan Society - St Luke's Village	9.6%	97.4	D	NE	Kearney	60	SANFORD
443	Life Care Center of Post Falls	9.6%	97.4	B	ID	Post Falls	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
444	PARKSIDE MANOR	9.6%	97.4	F	MO	COLUMBIA	120	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
445	Colonial Manor of Randolph	9.6%	97.4	B	NE	Randolph	45	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
446	LIFE CARE CENTER OF FEDERAL WAY	9.5%	97.4	D	WA	FEDERAL WAY	157	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
447	REDMOND CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	9.5%	97.4	B	WA	REDMOND	139	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
448	STONEBRIDGE HERMANN	9.5%	97.4	C	MO	HERMANN	118	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
449	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ATHENS	9.5%	97.4	C	TN	ATHENS	128	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
450	LEWIS & CLARK GARDENS	9.5%	97.3	F	MO	SAINT CHARLES	142	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC

Showing 401–450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.