Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

451–500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
451	MILLER'S AT OAK POINTE	9.5%	97.3	A	IN	COLUMBIA CITY	82	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
452	Rocky Mountain Care - Logan	9.5%	97.3	B	UT	Logan	120	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
453	TROY HILLS CENTER	9.5%	97.3	D	NJ	PARSIPPANY	130	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
454	BROOKHAVEN NURSING & REHAB	9.4%	97.3	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	90	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
455	GASSVILLE THERAPY AND LIVING	9.4%	97.3	D	AR	GASSVILLE	105	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
456	Mountain View Center Genesis Healthcare	9.4%	97.3	D	VT	Rutland	158	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
457	Omaha Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	9.4%	97.3	B	NE	Omaha	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
458	Clearwater Health & Rehabilitation of Cascadia	9.4%	97.3	C	ID	Orofino	60	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
459	Greentree Health and Rehabilitation Center	9.4%	97.3	A	WI	Clintonville	50	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
460	Valley View Manor Hcc	9.4%	97.3	D	MN	LAMBERTON	50	—
461	GRANDE OAKS	9.4%	97.3	C	OH	OAKWOOD VILLAGE	60	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
462	ALTA REHAB AT OAK BROOK	9.4%	97.3	D	IL	OAK BROOK	156	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
463	HALSTEAD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	9.3%	97.3	B	KS	HALSTEAD	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
464	Luling Living Center	9.3%	97.3	B	LA	Luling	117	—
465	THE SARAH ROBERTS FRENCH HOME	9.3%	97.3	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	CREATIVE SOLUTIONS IN HEALTHCARE INC
466	GETTYSBURG CENTER	9.3%	97.3	B	PA	GETTYSBURG	118	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
467	LIFE CARE CENTER OF COLORADO SPRINGS	9.3%	97.2	D	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	121	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
468	ARBORS AT WOODSFIELD	9.3%	97.2	B	OH	WOODSFIELD	85	B&Y TRUST
469	Casa De Oro Center	9.3%	97.2	C	NM	Las Cruces	158	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
470	HERITAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	9.3%	97.2	D	OH	OAKWOOD VILLAGE	60	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
471	OSAGE NURSING HOME, LLC	9.2%	97.2	B	OK	NOWATA	50	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
472	Menomonee Falls Health Services	9.2%	97.2	C	WI	MENOMONEE FALLS	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
473	LAUDERDALE COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	9.2%	97.2	C	TN	RIPLEY	71	—
474	Windsor Atrium	9.2%	97.2	C	TX	Harlingen	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
475	ALDEN DEBES REHAB & HCC	9.2%	97.2	F	IL	ROCKFORD	268	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
476	PASADENA PARK HEALTHCARE AND WELLNESS CENTER	9.2%	97.2	B	CA	PASADENA	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
477	White Oak Manor-Shelby	9.2%	97.2	B	NC	Shelby	160	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
478	SUNPLEX SUB-ACUTE CENTER	9.2%	97.2	C	MS	OCEAN SPRINGS	73	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
479	BETZ NURSING HOME	9.2%	97.2	B	IN	AUBURN	114	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
480	Ironwood Rehabilitation and Care Center	9.2%	97.2	B	ID	Coeur d'Alene	80	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
481	Rosewood Nursing Center	9.2%	97.2	D	LA	Lake Charles	150	TUTERA INVESTMENTS LLC
482	Sand Springs Nursing and Rehabilitation	9.2%	97.1	F	OK	Sand Springs	173	—
483	TIMBER POINT HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.2%	97.1	F	IL	CAMP POINT	110	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
484	SPRING GATE REHAB & HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.2%	97.1	F	TN	MEMPHIS	206	B&Y TRUST
485	HOLLY SPRINGS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.1%	97.1	C	MS	HOLLY SPRINGS	120	NEXION HEALTH INC
486	Crestpark Helena, LLC	9.1%	97.1	B	AR	HELENA	100	BELEW LLC
487	Skies Healthcare & Rehabilitation Center	9.1%	97.1	C	NM	Albuquerque	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
488	DIXON HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.1%	97.1	C	OH	WINTERSVILLE	85	RRW LLC
489	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	9.1%	97.1	D	IN	NEW CARLISLE	70	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
490	Westhaven Nursing Home	9.1%	97.1	C	OK	Stillwater	125	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
491	Advanced Health Care of St. George	9.0%	97.1	C	UT	St George	100	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
492	RESTHAVEN LIVING CENTER	9.0%	97.1	C	LA	BOGALUSA	145	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
493	COLUMBIA HEALTHCARE CENTER	9.0%	97.1	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	171	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
494	GREGORY RIDGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	9.0%	97.1	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	116	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
495	SOUTH HAMPTON PLACE	9.0%	97.1	D	MO	COLUMBIA	100	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
496	Accordius Health at Gastonia	9.0%	97.1	C	NC	Gastonia	118	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
497	CAREONE AT LIVINGSTON	9.0%	97.0	C	NJ	LIVINGSTON	120	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
498	COLONIAL TERRACE CARE CENTER	9.0%	97.0	A	OK	PRYOR	75	BGM ESTATE LLC
499	TRENTON GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	9.0%	97.0	D	NJ	TRENTON	215	—
500	RIVERVIEW NURSING CENTER	9.0%	97.0	B	MO	MOKANE	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC

Showing 451–500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.