Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

501–550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
501	Landmark at 95th Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	9.0%	97.0	D	IL	CHICAGO	228	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
502	SEAFORD CENTER	9.0%	97.0	D	DE	SEAFORD	124	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
503	CARLTON AT THE LAKE, THE	9.0%	97.0	F	IL	CHICAGO	244	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
504	Lakeside Health and Wellness	9.0%	97.0	F	TX	Kemp	0	ML LLC
505	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CAPE GIRARDEAU	9.0%	97.0	C	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
506	Landmark of Oak Lawn Rehabilitation and Nursing Ce	8.9%	97.0	F	IL	OAK LAWN	143	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
507	Duncanville Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	8.9%	97.0	D	TX	Duncanville	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
508	BAINBRIDGE ISLAND HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	8.9%	97.0	C	WA	BAINBRIDGE ISLAND	58	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
509	East Carolina Health and Rehabilitation Center	8.9%	97.0	F	NC	Greenville	130	—
510	Life Care Center of Omaha	8.9%	97.0	B	NE	Omaha	128	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
511	LA VIDA SERENA NURSING AND REHABILITATION	8.9%	97.0	C	TX	DEL RIO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
512	AUTUMN OAKS CARING CENTER	8.9%	97.0	F	MO	MOUNTAIN GROVE	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
513	DESOTO NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	8.9%	97.0	C	TX	DESOTO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
514	CRAWFORD MANOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	8.9%	97.0	D	OH	CLEVELAND	50	BNV DYNASTY LLC
515	Concordia Nursing & Rehab, LLC	8.9%	97.0	F	AR	Bella Vista	102	—
516	EUREKA REHABILITATION & WELLNESS CENTER, LP	8.9%	97.0	C	CA	EUREKA	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
517	MOUNTAIN CITY CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	8.9%	97.0	C	TN	MOUNTAIN CITY	120	WHEATEN LLC
518	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - TWELFTH STREET CARE CENTER	8.9%	96.9	C	IN	MISHAWAKA	87	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
519	Ovid Healthcare Center	8.8%	96.9	D	MI	Ovid	94	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
520	CLINTON HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	8.8%	96.9	D	MO	CLINTON	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
521	JERSEYVILLE NSG & REHAB CENTER	8.8%	96.9	F	IL	JERSEYVILLE	111	—
522	FOREST CITY REHAB & NRSG CTR	8.8%	96.9	D	IL	ROCKFORD	213	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
523	WARREN BARR NORTH SHORE	8.8%	96.9	F	IL	HIGHLAND PARK	215	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
524	Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Whitehall	8.8%	96.9	D	MI	Whitehall	125	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
525	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - RICHMOND CARE CENTER	8.8%	96.9	D	IN	RICHMOND	87	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
526	COMMUNITY FIRST MEDICAL CENTER	8.8%	96.9	B	IL	CHICAGO	66	—
527	St. Anthony Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	8.8%	96.9	B	NM	Clovis	70	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
528	Parkdale Health and Rehab	8.8%	96.9	B	UT	Price	58	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
529	Sandy River Center	8.8%	96.9	C	ME	Farmington	82	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
530	Lewiston Transitional Care of Cascadia	8.8%	96.9	A	ID	Lewiston	96	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
531	GEORGIA MANOR NURSING HOME	8.8%	96.9	C	TX	AMARILLO	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
532	SILVER HEALTHCARE CENTER	8.8%	96.9	D	NJ	CHERRY HILL	256	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
533	Fort Valley Crossing of Journey LLC	8.8%	96.9	C	GA	FORT VALLEY	75	BARRES LLC
534	Heritage Health Care Center	8.8%	96.8	A	AZ	GLOBE	96	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
535	HAVEN OF SAFFORD	8.8%	96.8	F	AZ	SAFFORD	106	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
536	ROSE MEADOWS HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	8.8%	96.8	D	PA	PITTSBURGH	200	RRW LLC
537	DIVERSICARE OF CHANUTE	8.8%	96.8	C	KS	CHANUTE	77	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
538	Holly Hill House	8.8%	96.8	C	LA	Sulphur	200	—
539	KAPLAN HEALTHCARE CENTER	8.8%	96.8	F	LA	KAPLAN	113	NEXION HEALTH INC
540	WELLBROOKE OF CARMEL	8.8%	96.8	F	IN	CARMEL	74	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
541	HICKORY CREEK AT PERU	8.8%	96.8	A	IN	PERU	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
542	DFW Nursing & Rehab	8.8%	96.8	F	TX	Fort Worth	0	—
543	ALDEN MEADOW PARK HCC	8.8%	96.8	D	WI	CLINTON	94	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
544	LIFE CARE CENTER OF RENO	8.8%	96.8	C	NV	RENO	198	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
545	PARKHILL NORTH NURSING HOME	8.8%	96.8	B	OK	SALINA	65	BGM ESTATE LLC
546	Hopewell Grove Rehabilitation and Healthcare	8.7%	96.8	F	OH	CHILLICOTHE	100	WHEATEN LLC
547	CENTER HOME HISPANIC ELDERLY	8.7%	96.8	F	IL	CHICAGO	156	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
548	NOKOMIS HC & SENIOR LIVING	8.7%	96.8	C	IL	NOKOMIS	92	—
549	ESTATES OF PERRYVILLE, LLC, THE	8.7%	96.8	B	MO	PERRYVILLE	156	—
550	EASTWOOD MANOR	8.7%	96.8	F	OK	COMMERCE	80	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST

Showing 501–550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.