Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,051–4,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4051	LANDMARK NURSING CENTER HAMMOND	2.8%	76.0	A	LA	HAMMOND	150	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4052	Sprenger Healthcare of Bluffton	2.8%	76.0	D	SC	Bluffton	60	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4053	HERITAGE HALL DILLWYN	2.8%	76.0	A	VA	DILLWYN	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4054	MAJESTIC CARE OF NEWBURGH	2.8%	76.0	C	IN	NEWBURGH	104	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4055	ADVANCED HEALTHCARE OF MESA	2.8%	76.0	A	AZ	MESA	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4056	Faith Haven Senior Care Centre	2.8%	76.0	B	MI	Jackson	81	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4057	SIESTA KEY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.8%	76.0	F	FL	SARASOTA	120	—
4058	LANDMARK SOUTH NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.8%	76.0	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	144	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
4059	CORONADO RIDGE SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CE	2.8%	75.9	B	NV	HENDERSON	121	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4060	ADVANCE HEALTH CARE OF SCOTTSDALE	2.8%	75.9	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4061	ROSELAWN GARDENS NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.8%	75.9	A	OH	ALLIANCE	44	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
4062	PINE HAVEN CHRISTIAN HOME	2.8%	75.9	F	WI	SHEBOYGAN FALLS	50	—
4063	SANTA FE LODGE	2.8%	75.9	A	CA	EL MONTE	46	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4064	ADVINIACARE AT PROVINCETOWN	2.8%	75.9	B	MA	PROVINCETOWN	41	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL
4065	FORT TRYON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	2.8%	75.9	B	NY	NEW YORK	205	—
4066	BUTLER COUNTY CARE FACILITY	2.8%	75.9	F	OH	HAMILTON	109	—
4067	ENNISCOURT NURSING CARE	2.8%	75.8	A	OH	LAKEWOOD	50	PREMIER THERAPY LLC
4068	Springbrook Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	2.8%	75.8	A	NC	Clayton	100	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
4069	WEST GATE VILLAGE	2.8%	75.8	A	AL	BREWTON	125	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4070	HERITAGE GROVE ESTATES	2.8%	75.8	C	KS	TOPEKA	80	—
4071	KRUSE VILLAGE SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	2.8%	75.8	B	TX	BRENHAM	65	DIMENSIONS HEALTH STRATEGIES CORPORATION
4072	SCOTT LAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.8%	75.8	C	FL	LAKELAND	120	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
4073	CHESTNUT RIDGE NSG & REHAB CTR	2.8%	75.8	B	GA	CUMMING	150	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
4074	COUNTRYSIDE HEALTH & REHAB OF NEWTON COUNTY	2.8%	75.8	A	AR	JASPER	70	—
4075	LODGE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	2.8%	75.8	B	OH	LOVELAND	120	CONCEPT REHAB INC
4076	Brandon Woods of New Bedford	2.8%	75.8	C	MA	NEW BEDFORD	135	ESSEX GROUP INCORPORATED
4077	PARK FOREST CARE CENTER LLC	2.8%	75.8	D	CO	WESTMINSTER	103	—
4078	GOOD SHEPHERD VILLAGE	2.8%	75.8	B	OH	SPRINGFIELD	81	—
4079	SUNSET ESTATES OF PURCELL	2.8%	75.8	B	OK	PURCELL	69	—
4080	GREEN VALLEY SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CE	2.8%	75.8	B	PA	POTTSVILLE	48	GEORGE S REPCHICK 2020 FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
4081	HARALSON NSG & REHAB CENTER	2.8%	75.8	B	GA	BREMEN	120	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
4082	VANCREST HEALTH CARE CENTER OF EATON	2.8%	75.8	B	OH	EATON	81	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
4083	PARKWAY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.8%	75.8	D	TN	MEMPHIS	120	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
4084	Rose Haven Nursing Home	2.8%	75.8	B	IA	Marengo	58	—
4085	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF FT PAYNE	2.8%	75.8	A	AL	FORT PAYNE	123	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4086	MEDWAY COUNTRY MANOR SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITAT	2.8%	75.8	C	MA	MEDWAY	123	MAVADO MANAGEMENT LLC
4087	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE LAKEWOOD	2.8%	75.8	B	OH	LAKEWOOD	114	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4088	Peak Resources - Pinelake	2.8%	75.8	B	NC	Carthage	108	PEAK RESOURCES INC
4089	WAPAKONETA MANOR	2.8%	75.8	B	OH	WAPAKONETA	73	HCF INC
4090	MAPLEWOOD PARK PLACE	2.8%	75.8	A	MD	BETHESDA	31	—
4091	REGENCY WENATCHEE REHABILIATION & NURSING CENTER	2.8%	75.8	C	WA	WENATCHEE	55	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
4092	PACIFICA HOSPITAL OF THE VALLEY DP SNF	2.8%	75.8	B	CA	SUN VALLEY	98	—
4093	ARCHSTONE CARE CENTER	2.8%	75.8	B	AZ	CHANDLER	120	—
4094	Caretel Inns of Linden	2.8%	75.8	C	MI	Linden	60	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
4095	Maple Crest Health Center	2.8%	75.8	B	NE	Omaha	175	AMERICAN BAPTIST HOMES OF THE MIDWEST
4096	PINE ACRES REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	2.8%	75.8	B	NJ	MADISON	102	—
4097	PLUM CREEK CARE CENTER	2.8%	75.8	F	NE	LEXINGTON	66	—
4098	FREEDOM POINTE HEALTH CENTER	2.8%	75.7	A	FL	THE VILLAGES	72	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
4099	FOREST VIEW CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	2.8%	75.7	A	NY	FOREST HILLS	160	ESTATE OF ESTHER FRIEDMAN
4100	ENCORE AT WINDSOR HILLS	2.8%	75.7	B	DE	WILMINGTON	46	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC

Showing 4,051–4,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.