Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,001–4,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4001	River Hills Village in Keokuk	2.9%	76.3	A	IA	Keokuk	84	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
4002	GARDEN VIEW CARE CENTER AT DOUGHERTY FERRY	2.9%	76.3	A	MO	VALLEY PARK	66	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
4003	SPRINGFIELD NURSING & INDEPENDENT LIVING	2.9%	76.3	F	OH	SPRINGFIELD	90	—
4004	FOOTHILL ACRES REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	2.9%	76.3	B	NJ	HILLSBOROUGH	200	—
4005	The Heights of Atascosa	2.9%	76.3	A	TX	PLEASANTON	0	BEXAR COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4006	DELMAR GARDENS OF O'FALLON	2.9%	76.3	B	MO	O FALLON	198	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
4007	PALM CITY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.3	A	FL	PALM CITY	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4008	SIERRA LAKES NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.3	B	FL	MIAMI	180	PHILIPSON FAMILY LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY LLC
4009	GREEN ACRES HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.3	B	CA	ROSEMEAD	85	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
4010	BELLFLOWER POST ACUTE	2.9%	76.3	B	CA	BELLFLOWER	59	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
4011	Parkview Care Center	2.9%	76.3	B	IA	Fairfield	70	—
4012	BONITA HILLS POST ACUTE	2.9%	76.2	B	CA	LA HABRA	86	—
4013	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER -	2.9%	76.2	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
4014	INTEGRITY HC OF MARION	2.9%	76.2	D	IL	MARION	125	—
4015	VILLAGE CREST CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.2	B	CT	NEW MILFORD	95	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
4016	FLORENCE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR, LLC	2.9%	76.2	A	AL	FLORENCE	147	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
4017	ORANGE CITY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.2	B	FL	DEBARY	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4018	YORK HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	2.9%	76.2	D	CA	LOS ANGELES	107	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
4019	Perry Creek Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.9%	76.2	D	NC	Raleigh	132	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
4020	MOUNTAIN MEADOWS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.1	B	AR	BATESVILLE	110	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4021	TUSKAWILLA NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.1	A	FL	WINTER SPRINGS	98	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4022	BROOKSIDE INN	2.9%	76.1	A	CO	CASTLE ROCK	126	—
4023	LAKERIDGE VILLA HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.1	A	OH	CINCINNATI	99	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
4024	VALLEY PALMS CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.1	B	CA	N HOLLYWOOD	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
4025	HERITAGE HALL FRONT ROYAL	2.9%	76.1	A	VA	FRONT ROYAL	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4026	Guest House Nursing and Rehabilitation	2.9%	76.1	C	LA	WEST MONROE	140	—
4027	CLIFFSIDE REHAB & RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.1	A	NY	FLUSHING	218	ESTATE OF ESTHER FRIEDMAN
4028	VI AT THE GLEN	2.9%	76.1	A	IL	GLENVIEW	47	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4029	ENGLISH OAKS CONVALESCENT & REHABILITATION HOSPITA	2.9%	76.1	A	CA	MODESTO	180	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4030	Azria Health Rose Vista	2.9%	76.1	B	IA	Woodbine	76	AZRIA VENTURES LLC
4031	HARBOR HILL CENTER	2.9%	76.1	B	ME	BELFAST	40	—
4032	COURTYARDS COMM LIVING CENTER	2.9%	76.1	B	MS	FULTON	66	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
4033	SENIOR CARE CENTER - ST MARYS	2.8%	76.0	D	GA	SAINT MARYS	78	SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HEALTH SYSTEM INC
4034	Schnepp Senior Care and Rehabilitation Center	2.8%	76.0	A	MI	St. Louis	97	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4035	PEBBLEBROOK HEALTH CENTER AT PARK SPRINGS	2.8%	76.0	B	GA	STONE MOUNTAIN	60	ISAKSON LIVING INC
4036	REST HAVEN NURSING HOME INC	2.8%	76.0	A	OH	GREENVILLE	76	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
4037	BEECHER MANOR NRSG & REHAB CTR	2.8%	76.0	C	IL	BEECHER	128	B & Z GRANDCHILDREN ACCUMULATION TRUST
4038	ASPIRE PHYSICAL RECOVERY CENTER OF WEST ALABAMA	2.8%	76.0	A	AL	NORTHPORT	75	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4039	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF MONTGOMERY	2.8%	76.0	A	AL	MONTGOMERY	185	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4040	WOODLANDS HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.8%	76.0	A	CA	LOS GATOS	65	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
4041	AVALON CARE CENTER AT NORTHPOINTE	2.8%	76.0	D	WA	SPOKANE	119	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
4042	VI AT AVENTURA	2.8%	76.0	C	FL	AVENTURA	40	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
4043	NHC HEALTHCARE, DICKSON	2.8%	76.0	A	TN	DICKSON	191	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
4044	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF AURORA	2.8%	76.0	A	CO	AURORA	54	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4045	CARE ONE AT CONCORD	2.8%	76.0	D	MA	W CONCORD	135	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
4046	Palmer Healthcare Center	2.8%	76.0	C	MA	PALMER	61	—
4047	BEDFORD CARE CENTER OF MENDENHALL	2.8%	76.0	A	MS	MENDENHALL	60	BEDFORD HEALTH PROPERTIES LLC
4048	SAN JACINTO MANOR	2.8%	76.0	F	TX	DEER PARK	96	—
4049	HENNIS CARE CENTRE OF DOVER	2.8%	76.0	C	OH	DOVER	120	—
4050	Good Samaritan Society - Hastings Village	2.8%	76.0	F	NE	Hastings	108	SANFORD

Showing 4,001–4,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.