Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,951–4,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3951	CENTER AT FORESIGHT LLC, THE	2.9%	76.6	A	CO	GRAND JUNCTION	54	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
3952	BLOOMFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.6	C	CT	BLOOMFIELD	120	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3953	CARE PAVILION NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.6	F	PA	PHILADELPHIA	396	—
3954	South Lyon Senior Care and Rehab Center	2.9%	76.6	A	MI	South Lyon	74	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3955	CARE ONE AT PEABODY	2.9%	76.6	C	MA	PEABODY	150	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3956	HALE MALAMALAMA	2.9%	76.6	B	HI	HONOLULU	40	—
3957	DESERT HAVEN CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.6	B	AZ	PHOENIX	115	—
3958	VILLA HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.6	B	CA	RIVERSIDE	59	NAHS HOLDING INC
3959	HEATHER MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.6	A	AR	HOPE	128	—
3960	TWIN OAKS HEALTH AND REHAB	2.9%	76.6	A	KS	LANSING	70	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
3961	GRAND THE	2.9%	76.5	C	OH	DUBLIN	128	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
3962	LYDIA TAFT HOUSE	2.9%	76.5	C	MA	UXBRIDGE	53	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
3963	PRUITTHEALTH - AUGUSTA HILLS	2.9%	76.5	B	GA	AUGUSTA	126	—
3964	AICOTA HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.5	A	MN	AITKIN	56	—
3965	Coastal Manor	2.9%	76.5	A	ME	YARMOUTH	39	—
3966	PRAIRIE MANOR NRSG & REHAB CTR	2.9%	76.5	B	IL	CHICAGO HEIGHTS	148	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
3967	VILLA SERENA HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.5	B	CA	LONG BEACH	52	MAYER 2012 TRUST
3968	Orchard Creek Skilled Nursing	2.9%	76.5	A	MI	Traverse City	22	—
3969	GLENBROOK	2.9%	76.5	A	CA	CARLSBAD	94	—
3970	Edgewood Rehab & Living Ctr	2.9%	76.5	A	ME	FARMINGTON	33	—
3971	MEADOWBROOK MANOR - LAGRANGE	2.9%	76.5	D	IL	LA GRANGE	197	CHRIS VANGEL GST EXEMPT DESCENDANTS TRUST
3972	Avamere Rehabilitation Of Junction City	2.9%	76.5	A	OR	JUNCTION CITY	53	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
3973	TREND HEALTH AND REHAB OF HOUSTON	2.9%	76.5	A	MS	HOUSTON	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
3974	THE ELEANOR NURSING CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.5	C	NY	HYDE PARK	120	—
3975	AVANTARA SALEM	2.9%	76.4	F	SD	SALEM	41	—
3976	HAMPTON OAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	2.9%	76.4	B	IN	SCOTTSBURG	71	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3977	Alamo Nursing Home Inc	2.9%	76.4	C	MI	Kalamazoo	100	—
3978	AVIATA AT WEST PALM BEACH	2.9%	76.4	C	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	120	—
3979	La Crescenta Healthcare Center	2.9%	76.4	A	CA	LA CRESCENTA	92	GRANCARE LLC
3980	Parkview Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.9%	76.4	B	NC	Chapel Hill	108	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
3981	Sunrise Hill Care Center	2.9%	76.4	A	IA	Traer	76	—
3982	OAK HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.4	B	PA	GREENSBURG	48	RAINTREE CONSULTING GROUP LLC
3983	HERITAGE HALL CLINTWOOD	2.9%	76.4	A	VA	CLINTWOOD	100	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
3984	UNIVERSITY NURSING & REHAB CTR	2.9%	76.4	B	GA	ATHENS	122	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
3985	CYPRESS VILLAGE	2.9%	76.4	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	100	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
3986	HERITAGE HALL TAZEWELL	2.9%	76.4	C	VA	TAZEWELL	180	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
3987	ARBOR TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	2.9%	76.4	C	IN	RICHMOND	101	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3988	MERIDIAN NURSING HOME	2.9%	76.4	A	OK	COMANCHE	63	—
3989	VISTA MANOR NURSING CENTER	2.9%	76.4	A	CA	SAN JOSE	99	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3990	ROYAL OAKS NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.4	A	FL	TITUSVILLE	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3991	LAURELS OF MASSILLON, THE	2.9%	76.4	B	OH	MASSILLON	140	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3992	Shoreland Health Care and Retirement Center Inc	2.9%	76.4	B	NC	Whiteville	89	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
3993	BARCLAYS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.4	C	NJ	CHERRY HILL	108	—
3994	AVIATA AT SARASOTA	2.9%	76.4	C	FL	SARASOTA	120	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
3995	FAMILY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.4	A	KS	WICHITA	72	AXIOM CONSULTING LLC
3996	SIENNA HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.4	B	OH	ADENA	43	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
3997	Arbor Hills Nursing Center	2.9%	76.3	B	CA	LA MESA	100	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3998	SHERMAN OAKS HEALTH & REHAB	2.9%	76.3	A	CA	SHERMAN OAKS	120	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
3999	RINALDI CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	2.9%	76.3	B	CA	GRANADA HILLS	99	CAMBRIDGE HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
4000	APERION CARE OAK LAWN	2.9%	76.3	C	IL	OAK LAWN	134	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL

Showing 3,951–4,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.