Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,901–3,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3901	MILL CREEK	2.9%	76.9	C	TX	SILSBEE	0	TYLER COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3902	MONITEAU CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.9	F	MO	CALIFORNIA	60	—
3903	COASTAL POST ACUTE	2.9%	76.9	C	CA	SALINAS	80	9560 PICO LLC
3904	VANCREST OF DELPHOS	2.9%	76.9	B	OH	DELPHOS	99	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
3905	BAYSHORE POINTE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.9	B	FL	TAMPA	117	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3906	HERITAGE LIVING CENTER	2.9%	76.9	B	AR	CONWAY	140	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3907	AZALEALAND NURSING HOME	2.9%	76.9	B	GA	SAVANNAH	107	—
3908	NHC HEALTHCARE, KINGSPORT	2.9%	76.9	A	TN	KINGSPORT	90	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3909	Kingston Health Center of Vermilion	2.9%	76.9	C	OH	VERMILION	120	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
3910	BERKELEY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	2.9%	76.9	D	IL	OAK PARK	72	—
3911	SEACREST POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.9	D	CA	SAN PEDRO	80	—
3912	Upland Rehabilitation and Care Center	2.9%	76.9	A	CA	Upland	206	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3913	COLONIAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC	2.9%	76.7	C	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	80	MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
3914	NHC HealthCare - North Augusta	2.9%	76.7	A	SC	North Augusta	192	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3915	BRIDGEWATER HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.7	B	IN	CARMEL	120	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
3916	Bay Shores Senior Care and Rehab Center	2.9%	76.7	B	MI	Bay City	126	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3917	Harmony House Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, I	2.9%	76.7	A	LA	SHREVEPORT	115	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3918	CARDIGAN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.7	B	MA	SCITUATE	65	—
3919	TIMBERLYN HEIGHTS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.7	A	MA	GREAT BARRINGTON	71	BEAR MOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE LLC
3920	The Springs at Stony Brook	2.9%	76.7	F	KY	Louisville	66	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3921	Iron River Care Center	2.9%	76.7	C	MI	Iron River	69	—
3922	North Hills Life Care and Rehab	2.9%	76.7	B	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	92	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3923	IVY CREEK HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE	2.9%	76.7	C	CA	SAN GABRIEL	98	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3924	LANDINGS OF WESTERVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB THE	2.9%	76.7	A	OH	WESTERVILLE	120	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3925	NHC Healthcare - Lexington	2.9%	76.7	A	SC	West Columbia	170	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3926	KEYSTONE POINTE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.9%	76.7	A	OH	LAGRANGE	121	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3927	LANFAIR CENTER FOR REHAB & NSG CARE INC	2.9%	76.7	A	OH	LANCASTER	84	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
3928	THE LIVING CENTRE	2.9%	76.7	B	MT	STEVENSVILLE	50	—
3929	WILLOW RIDGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER,LLC	2.9%	76.7	A	LA	ARCADIA	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
3930	BRYN MAWR VILLAGE	2.9%	76.7	D	PA	BRYN MAWR	120	—
3931	HAVEN OF FLAGSTAFF	2.9%	76.7	C	AZ	FLAGSTAFF	83	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
3932	Victoria Care Center	2.9%	76.7	A	CA	Ventura	188	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3933	La Jolla Post-Acute	2.9%	76.7	C	CA	LA JOLLA	161	COVENANT CARE LLC
3934	CHINO VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTE	2.9%	76.7	B	CA	POMONA	102	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
3935	Encinitas Post-Acute	2.9%	76.7	B	CA	ENCINITAS	99	COVENANT CARE LLC
3936	CANFIELD ACRES LLC DBA WINDSOR HOUSE AT CANFIELD	2.9%	76.6	A	OH	CANFIELD	96	—
3937	AVANTE AT MELBOURNE INC	2.9%	76.6	B	FL	MELBOURNE	110	AG HOLDINGS INC
3938	Lilac Manor Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	2.9%	76.6	B	NY	Rochester	200	—
3939	AUTUMN AEGIS NURSING HOME	2.9%	76.6	A	OH	LORAIN	99	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3940	Florence Park Care Center	2.9%	76.6	B	KY	Florence	150	—
3941	PARSONS HILL REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	76.6	B	MA	WORCESTER	162	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
3942	MAJESTIC CARE OF FORT WAYNE	2.9%	76.6	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	70	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3943	NHC HEALTHCARE, COOKEVILLE	2.9%	76.6	A	TN	COOKEVILLE	104	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3944	COLUMBIANA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.9%	76.6	A	AL	COLUMBIANA	63	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3945	SUMMERSVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	76.6	C	WV	SUMMERSVILLE	90	RRW LLC
3946	CAMBRIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	76.6	A	CT	FAIRFIELD	160	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3947	RIVER RUN HEALTHCARE OF PORTSMOUTH	2.9%	76.6	A	OH	PORTSMOUTH	25	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
3948	GORHAM HOUSE	2.9%	76.6	B	ME	GORHAM	69	CONTINUUM HOME SERVICES INC
3949	OAKTON PLACE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION AT THE ARLI	2.9%	76.6	D	FL	NAPLES	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
3950	PALM GARDEN OF WEST PALM BEACH	2.9%	76.6	B	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	176	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC

Showing 3,901–3,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.