Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,851–3,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3851	BRIA OF CAHOKIA	3.0%	77.2	F	IL	CAHOKIA	133	—
3852	Regency at Grand Blanc	3.0%	77.2	B	MI	Grand Blanc	138	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3853	Nye Legacy Health & Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.2	B	NE	Fremont	100	PARAGON MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3854	LINCOLNWOOD PLACE	3.0%	77.2	C	IL	LINCOLNWOOD	40	CCRC OPS MB1 T LLC
3855	NHC HEALTHCARE, MCMINNVILLE	3.0%	77.2	A	TN	MCMINNVILLE	115	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3856	SENIOR SUITES HEALTHCARE	3.0%	77.2	B	OK	BROKEN ARROW	92	—
3857	HAMPTON POST ACUTE	3.0%	77.2	B	CA	STOCKTON	120	9560 PICO LLC
3858	Western State Nursing Facility	3.0%	77.1	A	KY	Hopkinsville	144	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
3859	NHC Healthcare - Greenville	3.0%	77.1	A	SC	Greer	132	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3860	La Bella of Freeburg	3.0%	77.1	C	IL	FREEBURG	118	—
3861	MILL CREEK NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.0%	77.1	A	OH	GALION	79	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3862	SAN SIMEON BY THE SOUND CENTER FOR NURSING & REHAB	3.0%	77.1	D	NY	GREENPORT	120	—
3863	PARK PLACE	3.0%	77.1	A	AL	SELMA	103	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
3864	Montello Care Center	3.0%	77.1	D	WI	Montello	50	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
3865	BROOKSIDE VILLAGE INC	3.0%	77.1	C	IN	JASPER	27	CARDON AND ASSOCIATES INC
3866	OCALA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.1	A	FL	OCALA	180	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3867	GLEN HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.1	A	AL	NORTHPORT	200	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3868	Hillcrest Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.1	A	KY	Corbin	120	SEKY HOLDING CO
3869	STANLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.0%	77.1	A	CA	WESTMINSTER	30	—
3870	Quinn Meadows Rehabilitation and Care Center	3.0%	77.1	A	ID	Pocatello	41	TANABELL HEALTH SERVICES INC
3871	WESTMONT HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY	3.0%	77.1	F	IA	LOGAN	46	—
3872	MONUMENTALPOSTACUTECARE AT WOODSIDE PARK	3.0%	77.1	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
3873	NHC HEALTHCARE, JOHNSON CITY	3.0%	77.1	B	TN	JOHNSON CITY	167	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3874	LEGACY HEIGHTS NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	3.0%	77.1	B	AR	RUSSELLVILLE	122	—
3875	Ivy at Davenport	3.0%	77.1	F	IA	Davenport	75	—
3876	Country Drive Post Acute	3.0%	77.1	A	CA	FREMONT	126	9560 PICO LLC
3877	KATHERINE'S PLACE AT WEDINGTON	3.0%	77.1	B	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	119	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3878	Adams Farm Living & Rehabilitation	3.0%	77.1	B	NC	Jamestown	120	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
3879	KENSINGTON PLACE NRSG & REHAB	3.0%	77.0	D	IL	CHICAGO	155	WISSATI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3880	MODOC MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	3.0%	77.0	A	CA	ALTURAS	84	—
3881	FLORHAM PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.0%	77.0	A	NJ	FLORHAM PARK	53	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3882	Maple Manor Rehab Center	3.0%	77.0	C	MI	Wayne	59	—
3883	RIVERVIEW, THE	3.0%	77.0	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	130	—
3884	Elk Grove Post Acute	3.0%	77.0	C	CA	Elk Grove	136	9560 PICO LLC
3885	WellBridge of Grand Blanc	3.0%	77.0	C	MI	Grand Blanc	128	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3886	FOX SUBACUTE AT MECHANICSBURG	3.0%	77.0	A	PA	MECHANICSBURG	56	FOX SUBACUTE MANAGEMENT INC
3887	WILLOW SPRINGS CARE AND REHABILITATION	3.0%	77.0	B	WA	YAKIMA	75	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
3888	Rochester Manor	3.0%	77.0	B	NH	ROCHESTER	108	—
3889	QUITMAN COUNTY HEALTH & REHAB LLC	3.0%	77.0	A	MS	MARKS	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3890	CANYON VISTA POST ACUTE	3.0%	77.0	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	120	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3891	SKILLED NURSING UNIT AT ORO VALLEY HOSPITAL	2.9%	76.9	A	AZ	ORO VALLEY	33	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3892	Aspen Ridge Transitional Rehab	2.9%	76.9	B	UT	Murray	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3893	LAURELS OF ATHENS, THE	2.9%	76.9	B	OH	ATHENS	111	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3894	Beaverton Post Acute Care of Cascadia	2.9%	76.9	A	OR	BEAVERTON	104	NAIR LLC
3895	CEDARWOOD PLAZA	2.9%	76.9	A	OH	CLEVELAND HEIGHTS	115	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
3896	APPLE REHAB CROMWELL	2.9%	76.9	D	CT	CROMWELL	85	—
3897	CCC OF WEST GREEN BAY	2.9%	76.9	B	WI	GREEN BAY	105	—
3898	HERITAGE HALL - BROOKNEAL	2.9%	76.9	A	VA	BROOKNEAL	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
3899	Regency at Chene	2.9%	76.9	B	MI	Detroit	160	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3900	Alden Estates of Countryside, Inc	2.9%	76.9	C	WI	JEFFERSON	120	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 3,851–3,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.