Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,801–3,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3801	Legend Oaks Healthcare and Rehabilitation - West S	3.0%	77.5	B	TX	San Antonio	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
3802	REGENCY CARE CENTER AT MONROE	3.0%	77.5	B	WA	MONROE	92	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
3803	BROOKDALE UNIVERSITY PARK SNF (AL)	3.0%	77.5	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	66	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
3804	LA SIERRA CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.5	B	CA	MERCED	68	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3805	ROSELAWN MANOR	3.0%	77.5	B	OH	SPENCERVILLE	49	HCF INC
3806	Autumn Lake Healthcare at Oceanview	3.0%	77.5	C	NJ	OCEAN VIEW	120	MJH GROUP LLC
3807	PILGRIM REHABILITATION & SKILLED NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.5	A	MA	PEABODY	152	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
3808	WHITE OAK MANOR - CHARLESTON	3.0%	77.5	B	SC	CHARLESTON	176	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3809	FUTURE CARE NORTHPOINT	3.0%	77.5	A	MD	BALTIMORE	180	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
3810	Accura Healthcare of South Des Moines	3.0%	77.5	D	IA	Des Moines	89	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
3811	ST AUGUSTINE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.5	B	FL	SAINT AUGUSTINE	120	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3812	CRYSTAL CARE CENTER OF FRANKLIN FURNACE	3.0%	77.5	A	OH	FRANKLIN FURNACE	30	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
3813	Caretel Inns of Tri-Cities	3.0%	77.4	B	MI	Bay City	60	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
3814	GREENFIELD CARE CENTER OF SOUTH GATE	3.0%	77.4	C	CA	SOUTH GATE	99	—
3815	ADARA LIVING	3.0%	77.4	C	CO	BROOMFIELD	210	LJ1115 LLC
3816	PLACE AT MARTINEZ, THE	3.0%	77.4	A	GA	AUGUSTA	100	—
3817	Westbrook Acres	3.0%	77.4	A	IA	Gladbrook	54	—
3818	PARKWAY PAVILION HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.4	B	CT	ENFIELD	130	WACHUSETT VENTURES LLC
3819	Lakeside Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.4	F	MI	Sterling Heights	66	—
3820	WOODLAND CONVALESCENT CENTER	3.0%	77.4	A	WA	WOODLAND	62	—
3821	SAYBROOK LANDING	3.0%	77.4	A	OH	ASHTABULA	95	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3822	Rehabilitation Center of South Georgia	3.0%	77.4	C	GA	TIFTON	178	—
3823	MEADOWBROOK MANOR	3.0%	77.3	F	IL	BOLINGBROOK	298	DOROTHY VANGEL QSS TRUST
3824	Ambassador, A Villa Center	3.0%	77.3	C	MI	Detroit	176	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
3825	TIMBERLANE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	3.0%	77.3	B	AR	EL DORADO	106	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3826	PIQUA MANOR	3.0%	77.3	B	OH	PIQUA	99	HCF INC
3827	CADIA REHABILITATION RENAISSANCE	3.0%	77.3	C	DE	MILLSBORO	130	LONG TERM CARE CORP
3828	ARBOR TRAIL REHAB AND SKILLED NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.3	A	FL	INVERNESS	116	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3829	NORTHWAY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.3	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	113	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3830	LEGACY AT TOWN CREEK	3.0%	77.3	D	TX	PALESTINE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
3831	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT OLD BRIDGE	3.0%	77.3	C	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	120	—
3832	Joliet Living & Rehab Center	3.0%	77.3	F	IL	JOLIET	120	—
3833	SURPRISE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.3	A	AZ	SURPRISE	100	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3834	NHC Healthcare - Laurens	3.0%	77.3	B	SC	Laurens	176	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3835	VILLAGE GREEN REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.0%	77.3	C	CT	BRISTOL	120	—
3836	MADERA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.3	C	CA	MADERA	176	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3837	Medical Suites at Oak Creek (The)	3.0%	77.3	F	WI	OAK CREEK	144	—
3838	HERITAGE HALL-RICH CREEK	3.0%	77.3	B	VA	RICH CREEK	120	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
3839	Barbourville Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.3	B	KY	Barbourville	135	SEKY HOLDING CO
3840	ASHLAND PLACE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.2	A	AL	MOBILE	164	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3841	CLARKSDALE NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.2	B	MS	CLARKSDALE	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3842	KEARNY MESA CONVALESCENT AND NURSING HOME	3.0%	77.2	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	98	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3843	PARKVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.2	A	TX	BIG SPRING	0	—
3844	CHETWYNDE HEALTHCARE	3.0%	77.2	F	MA	WEST NEWTON	75	—
3845	OAK PARK PLACE OF JANESVILLE	3.0%	77.2	D	WI	JANESVILLE	35	—
3846	BONNIE BRAE SKILLED NURSING	3.0%	77.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	59	—
3847	SUPERIOR MANOR OF FESTUS, LLC	3.0%	77.2	D	MO	FESTUS	55	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
3848	STONEBRIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	3.0%	77.2	B	IN	BEDFORD	68	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3849	EASTSIDE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.2	C	ME	BANGOR	69	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3850	NEW VISTA POST-ACUTE CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.2	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	116	NEW VISTA PAC HB OPERATOR LLC

Showing 3,801–3,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.