Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,751–3,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3751	PUTNAM NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	77.8	F	NY	HOLMES	160	—
3752	NEWPORT NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	CA	NEWPORT BEACH	59	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3753	PALOS VERDES HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.7	B	CA	LOMITA	48	—
3754	HERITAGE MANOR OF HOUMA	3.0%	77.7	A	LA	HOUMA	120	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3755	COMMUNITY NURSING HOME OF ANACONDA	3.0%	77.7	A	MT	ANACONDA	62	—
3756	JOHNSON COUNTY CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.7	B	MO	WARRENSBURG	87	—
3757	DULLES HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	VA	HERNDON	166	DJ PETRINE LLC
3758	BROOKDALE PLAZA LISLE SNF	3.0%	77.7	B	IL	LISLE	55	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
3759	Westfield Quality Care of Aurora	3.0%	77.7	C	NE	Aurora	64	—
3760	BAPTIST MEMORIAL HOSPITAL GT	3.0%	77.7	—	MS	COLUMBUS	23	—
3761	MONROE MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	AL	MONROEVILLE	84	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
3762	STANFORD COURT SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	CA	SANTEE	105	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3763	Park Meadows Post Acute	3.0%	77.7	B	TN	CLARKSVILLE	113	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
3764	Aspen Ridge of Utah Valley	3.0%	77.7	B	UT	Orem	24	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3765	PLAZA COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	MS	PASCAGOULA	100	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
3766	The Villa at West Branch	3.0%	77.7	D	MI	West Branch	70	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
3767	FAIRWAY OAKS CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	FL	TAMPA	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
3768	BARNSDALL NURSING HOME	3.0%	77.7	A	OK	BARNSDALL	40	—
3769	AZALEA GARDENS NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.7	A	MS	WIGGINS	99	—
3770	AVIATA AT ARBOR SPRINGS	3.0%	77.7	C	FL	OCALA	180	ASP FL LLC
3771	SOUTHWEST MONTANA VETERANS HOME	3.0%	77.7	A	MT	BUTTE	60	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
3772	SHERWOOD MANOR NURSING HOME	3.0%	77.7	C	OK	TULSA	102	—
3773	LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONAL HOSPITAL SCU	3.0%	77.7	A	KY	Somerset	12	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
3774	BAYVIEW NURSING HOME	3.0%	77.7	A	GA	NAHUNTA	63	CROSSROADS MEDICAL MANAGEMENT INC
3775	RELIABLE HEALTH & REHAB AT LAKEWOOD	3.0%	77.6	B	GA	ATLANTA	100	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
3776	BRUCE COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	3.0%	77.6	A	MS	BRUCE	35	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
3777	ALARIS HEALTH AT CEDAR GROVE	3.0%	77.6	C	NJ	CEDAR GROVE	230	CG HEALTHCARE LLC
3778	THE OAKS OF HOUMA	3.0%	77.6	A	LA	HOUMA	120	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3779	QUEENS BOULEVARD EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	3.0%	77.6	A	NY	WOODSIDE	280	—
3780	STONEGATES	3.0%	77.6	A	DE	GREENVILLE	49	—
3781	GLENHAVEN RETIREMENT VILLAGE	3.0%	77.6	C	OK	CHICKASHA	120	—
3782	WATSONTOWN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	3.0%	77.6	C	PA	WATSONTOWN	125	—
3783	Aperion Care Burbank	3.0%	77.6	C	IL	BURBANK	56	YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
3784	PALM GARDENS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.6	A	AL	MOBILE	100	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3785	HANDMAKER HOME FOR THE AGING	3.0%	77.6	C	AZ	TUCSON	94	—
3786	WEDGWOOD GARDENS CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.6	B	NJ	FREEHOLD	151	—
3787	RADFORD GREEN	3.0%	77.6	C	IL	LINCOLNSHIRE	84	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
3788	HUNTER CREEK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.0%	77.6	A	AL	NORTHPORT	78	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3789	Southern Oaks Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.5	C	LA	Shreveport	61	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3790	Vibra Rehabilitation Center	3.0%	77.5	D	PA	MECHANICSBURG	48	—
3791	Daleville Health and Rehabilitation	3.0%	77.5	A	VA	DALEVILLE	90	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
3792	MAPLEVIEW COUNTRY VILLA	3.0%	77.5	B	OH	CHARDON	100	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
3793	ROWAN COMMUNITY, INC	3.0%	77.5	A	CO	DENVER	65	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
3794	CHELSEA PLACE CARE CENTER LLC	3.0%	77.5	A	CT	HARTFORD	234	GLOBAL WORLD INVESTORS
3795	CAREONE AT WELLINGTON	3.0%	77.5	D	NJ	HACKENSACK	128	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3796	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - DECATUR COUNTY	3.0%	77.5	B	KS	OBERLIN	45	SANFORD
3797	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - VALPARAISO CARE CENTER	3.0%	77.5	A	IN	VALPARAISO	85	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
3798	ROYAL MEGANSETT NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.0%	77.5	A	MA	N FALMOUTH	90	—
3799	MARQUIS CARE AT CENTENNIAL HILLS	3.0%	77.5	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	120	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
3800	THE WOODLANDS HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	3.0%	77.5	A	VA	CLIFTON FORGE	60	DJ PETRINE LLC

Showing 3,751–3,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.