Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,701–3,750

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3701	RESERVOIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, THE	3.1%	78.0	C	MA	MARLBOROUGH	144	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3702	ALAMEDA HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	78.0	D	CA	ALAMEDA	166	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3703	LAKE PRINCE WOODS, INC	3.1%	78.0	A	VA	SUFFOLK	40	EVERYAGE
3704	OAKLAND REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	B	NJ	OAKLAND	215	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3705	PACIFIC HILLS POST ACUTE	3.1%	78.0	A	CA	MORGAN HILL	99	COVENANT CARE LLC
3706	FT Washington Rehabilitation and Wellness Center	3.1%	78.0	B	MD	FORT WASHINGTON	150	MINORITY REPORT LLC
3707	FIRESIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	D	CA	SANTA MONICA	66	NAHS HOLDING INC
3708	BROADWAY MANOR CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	A	CA	GLENDALE	78	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
3709	SILVER OAKS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.1%	78.0	A	AR	CAMDEN	104	RHC OPERATIONS INC
3710	HEALTH CENTER AT BLOOMINGDALE	3.1%	78.0	B	NJ	BLOOMINGDALE	120	TWOMAGNETS LLC
3711	DADEVILLE HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	A	AL	DADEVILLE	144	PRIME MANAGEMENT LLC
3712	GRACE MANOR CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	A	CO	BURLINGTON	31	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
3713	OVERBROOK CENTER	3.1%	78.0	B	OH	MIDDLEPORT	99	—
3714	JACKSONVILLE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.1%	78.0	A	FL	JACKSONVILLE	163	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3715	ALCOA PINES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.1%	78.0	B	AR	BENTON	120	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3716	Thibodaux Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	78.0	C	LA	THIBODAUX	78	NEXION HEALTH INC
3717	J F Hawkins Nursing Home	3.1%	78.0	B	SC	Newberry	118	B&Y TRUST
3718	WINDHAM HOUSE OF HATTIESBURG	3.1%	78.0	A	MS	HATTIESBURG	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3719	WOODCREST REHAB & RESIDENTIAL H C CENTER, L L C	3.1%	78.0	B	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
3720	Village House Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	78.0	C	RI	Newport	95	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
3721	LADY OF THE OAKS RETIREMENT MANOR	3.1%	78.0	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	137	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3722	THE GREEN HOUSE COTTAGES OF POPLAR GROVE	3.1%	78.0	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	140	JEJ ASSETS LP
3723	VIVO HEALTHCARE CLEWISTON	3.1%	78.0	C	FL	CLEWISTON	155	ASMSY LLC
3724	HEALTHCARE CENTRE OF FRESNO	3.1%	78.0	F	CA	FRESNO	155	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3725	PEBBLE CREEK HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	77.9	A	OH	AKRON	150	RRW LLC
3726	SOUTH SHORE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	3.1%	77.9	B	NY	FREEPORT	100	—
3727	CARRINGTON PLACE OF TAPPAHANNOCK	3.1%	77.9	B	VA	TAPPAHANNOCK	60	WEST COAST COMMONWEALTH LLC
3728	The Willows at Howell	3.1%	77.9	A	MI	Howell	56	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3729	Dawson Springs Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	77.9	A	KY	Dawson Springs	59	JAMES LOWRY FAMILY IRRV TR
3730	WINCHESTER NURSING CENTER, INC	3.1%	77.9	B	MO	BERNIE	60	PARADIGM REHAB SERVICES LLC
3731	GIDEON CARE CENTER	3.1%	77.9	A	MO	GIDEON	72	PARADIGM REHAB SERVICES LLC
3732	Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Sterling Heig	3.1%	77.9	B	MI	Sterling Heights	163	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
3733	PARK AVENUE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	77.9	D	CA	POMONA	231	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3734	GATEWAY SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	3.1%	77.9	C	OH	HAMILTON	53	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3735	Union House Nursing Home	3.1%	77.9	A	VT	Glover	44	FRANCIS E CHENEY JR ESTATE
3736	WESTSIDE CARE CENTER	3.1%	77.9	B	CT	MANCHESTER	162	APEX ADVISORS
3737	SALEM TRANSITIONAL CARE	3.1%	77.9	C	OR	SALEM	80	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
3738	Hermitage Care and Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	77.9	A	KY	Owensboro	92	WHEATEN LLC
3739	Thomas Upham House	3.1%	77.9	B	MA	MEDFIELD	42	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
3740	RENNES HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER-WESTON	3.1%	77.9	B	WI	WESTON	130	—
3741	LAUREL COURT	3.1%	77.9	A	TX	ALVIN	0	SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3742	WHITE SETTLEMENT NURSING CENTER	3.1%	77.8	B	TX	WHITE SETTLEMENT	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
3743	HERITAGESPRING HEALTHCARE CENTER OF WEST CHESTER	3.1%	77.8	B	OH	WEST CHESTER	144	CARESPRING HEALTH CARE HOLDINGS LP
3744	LORIEN HEALTH SYSTEMS - COLUMBIA	3.1%	77.8	B	MD	COLUMBIA	205	MARYLAND HEALTH ENTERPRISES INC
3745	THE HEALTHCARE CENTER OF EASTVIEW	3.1%	77.8	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	92	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
3746	ALTERCARE POST-ACUTE REHAB CENTER	3.1%	77.8	A	OH	KENT	79	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
3747	HUNTINGTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	77.8	B	WV	HUNTINGTON	186	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3748	Lahser Hills Care Centre	3.1%	77.8	B	MI	Southfield	127	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3749	TAMARACK RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.1%	77.8	C	OH	KENT	96	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3750	MAIN STREET CARE CENTER	3.1%	77.8	C	OH	AVON LAKE	120	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 3,701–3,750 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.