Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,651–3,700

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3651	PARKSIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.3	B	OH	COLUMBIANA	75	—
3652	Elmwood Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	78.3	B	RI	Providence	70	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
3653	BLOSSOM NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.1%	78.3	A	OH	SALEM	100	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
3654	Promedica Skilled Nursing And Reh- Greenville West	3.1%	78.3	B	SC	Greenville	88	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3655	Evergreen Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	78.3	C	MI	Southfield	172	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
3656	DENVER NORTH CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.3	B	CO	DENVER	82	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
3657	ARBORS AT CARROLL	3.1%	78.3	C	OH	CARROLL	99	B&Y TRUST
3658	SHAWNEE MANOR	3.1%	78.3	B	OH	LIMA	137	HCF INC
3659	IVORY WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	78.3	C	PA	NORRISTOWN	120	PARAMOUNT CARE CENTERS LLC
3660	The Laurels Of Greentree Ridge	3.1%	78.3	B	NC	Asheville	90	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3661	Mission View Health Center	3.1%	78.3	B	CA	San Luis Obispo	162	COMPASS HEALTH INC
3662	Retreat at Wellmore of Daniel Island	3.1%	78.3	C	SC	Charleston	60	—
3663	KERN RIVER TRANSITIONAL CARE	3.1%	78.3	B	CA	BAKERSFIELD	140	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3664	The Shannon Gray Rehabilitation & Recovery Center	3.1%	78.3	A	NC	Jamestown	150	CANYON MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS INC
3665	OAKLAND HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	78.3	A	CA	OAKLAND	98	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3666	DUBLINAIR HEALTH & REHAB	3.1%	78.3	B	GA	DUBLIN	149	—
3667	RIVERVIEW POINTE CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.3	A	OH	OLMSTED FALLS	124	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3668	NHC Healthcare - Charleston	3.1%	78.3	A	SC	Charleston	88	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3669	CARE INN OF LA GRANGE	3.1%	78.3	C	TX	LA GRANGE	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
3670	BEACHWOOD POST-ACUTE & REHAB	3.1%	78.2	B	CA	SANTA MONICA	227	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3671	AHC CRESTVIEW	3.1%	78.2	D	TN	BROWNSVILLE	115	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
3672	Sanford Health & Rehabilitation Co	3.1%	78.2	D	NC	Sanford	131	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
3673	Sunnyslope Nursing Home	3.1%	78.2	A	OH	BOWERSTON	50	CAPITAL HEALTH SERVICES INC
3674	FRIENDSHIP MANOR NURSING & REHAB CENTER	3.1%	78.2	A	CA	NATIONAL CITY	104	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
3675	EAST BANK CENTER, LLC	3.1%	78.2	C	IL	LOVES PARK	54	—
3676	GOLDEN YEARS NURSING CENTER	3.1%	78.2	A	OH	HAMILTON	70	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3677	COMMUNITY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	78.2	A	FL	PANAMA CITY	120	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
3678	BRIARWOOD REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	78.2	A	MA	NEEDHAM	120	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3679	NORWAY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION, LLC	3.1%	78.2	B	ME	NORWAY	42	MARVIN OSTREICHER FAMILY TRUST 2012
3680	NELLA'S AT AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE	3.1%	78.2	F	WV	ELKINS	100	NELLAS OPCO HOLDCO LLC
3681	Zebulon Rehabilitation Center	3.1%	78.2	A	NC	Zebulon	60	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3682	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF NASHVILLE	3.1%	78.2	F	TN	NASHVILLE	49	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3683	HAYWARD HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	78.2	A	CA	HAYWARD	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3684	Liberty Health Care Center	3.1%	78.1	C	TX	Liberty	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3685	CAREONE AT VALLEY	3.1%	78.1	B	NJ	WESTWOOD	98	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3686	LANESSA EXTENDED CARE	3.1%	78.1	C	MA	WEBSTER	96	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
3687	BRIGHTON CORNERSTONE GROUP, LLC	3.1%	78.1	B	KY	MADISONVILLE	40	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
3688	Medilodge of Wyoming	3.1%	78.1	A	MI	Wyoming	80	B&Y TRUST
3689	EXCELCARE AT LEWES LLC	3.1%	78.1	D	DE	LEWES	179	—
3690	NHC Healthcare, Glasgow	3.1%	78.1	C	KY	Glasgow	194	NHC OP LP
3691	Faith Healthcare Center	3.1%	78.1	A	SC	Florence	104	PALMETTO HEALTH CARE LLC
3692	PACIFIC GARDENS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	78.1	B	CA	FRESNO	188	COVENANT CARE LLC
3693	NHC Healthcare - Clinton	3.1%	78.1	A	SC	Clinton	131	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3694	HERITAGE VILLAGE NURSING HOME	3.1%	78.1	D	OK	HOLDENVILLE	118	—
3695	Regency at Shelby Township	3.1%	78.1	A	MI	Shelby Township	116	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3696	Brightwater Skilled Nursing Center	3.1%	78.1	B	SC	Myrtle Beach	67	MAXWELL GROUP INC
3697	BRIARCREST NURSING CENTER	3.1%	78.0	C	CA	BELL GARDENS	135	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3698	Humboldt House Rehabilitation And Nursing Center	3.1%	78.0	C	NY	BUFFALO	173	—
3699	HOPE CENTER FOR H I V AND NURSING CARE	3.1%	78.0	B	NY	BRONX	66	—
3700	NEW BRIGHTON CARE CENTER	3.1%	78.0	A	MN	NEW BRIGHTON	57	—

Showing 3,651–3,700 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.