Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,601–3,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3601	ATRIUM POST ACUTE CARE OF WAYNE	3.2%	78.6	B	NJ	WAYNE	209	KBWB OPERATIONS ATRIUM
3602	ADAMSPLACE, LLC	3.2%	78.6	A	TN	MURFREESBORO	40	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3603	TRINITY MANOR	3.2%	78.6	B	KS	DODGE CITY	46	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
3604	COUNTRY VIEW OF SUNBURY	3.2%	78.6	A	OH	SUNBURY	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3605	KINGSTON OF MIAMISBURG	3.2%	78.6	B	OH	MIAMISBURG	113	KINGSTON HEALTHCARE INC
3606	Fair Oaks Lodge	3.2%	78.6	C	MN	WADENA	65	—
3607	WASHINGTON SQUARE HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.2%	78.6	F	OH	WARREN	83	—
3608	APPLE REHAB WEST HAVEN	3.2%	78.6	C	CT	WEST HAVEN	90	—
3609	MENTOR RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.2%	78.6	A	OH	MENTOR	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3610	NHC Healthcare - Bluffton	3.2%	78.6	A	SC	Okatie	120	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3611	Wheaton Franciscan HC - Terrace at St Francis	3.2%	78.6	B	WI	MILWAUKEE	81	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
3612	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF GREENVILLE	3.2%	78.6	A	AL	GREENVILLE	118	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
3613	Signature Healthcare at Jefferson Manor Rehab & We	3.2%	78.6	B	KY	Louisville	100	WHEATEN LLC
3614	NHC Healthcare - Sumter	3.2%	78.6	A	SC	Sumter	138	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3615	RAINIER REHABILITATION	3.2%	78.6	A	WA	PUYALLUP	117	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3616	FREDERIC NURSING AND REHAB COMMUNITY	3.2%	78.6	A	WI	FREDERIC	60	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
3617	ARC AT TROTWOOD LLC	3.2%	78.6	C	OH	DAYTON	127	JOSHUA HOFFMAN TR JOSHUA HOFFMAN TTEE
3618	ATKINS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.2%	78.6	B	AR	ATKINS	90	—
3619	Signature Healthcare of East Louisville	3.2%	78.6	C	KY	Louisville	128	WHEATEN LLC
3620	William E Christofferson Salt Lake Veterans Home	3.2%	78.6	A	UT	Salt Lake City	81	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
3621	PADDOCK SPRINGS	3.2%	78.6	C	IN	WARSAW	60	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
3622	BEARTOOTH MANOR	3.1%	78.5	F	MT	COLUMBUS	82	—
3623	Harris Health Center LLC	3.1%	78.5	B	RI	East Providence	31	—
3624	VALENCIA HILLS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	78.5	C	FL	LAKELAND	249	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
3625	BRIGHTON PLACE SAN DIEGO	3.1%	78.5	C	CA	SAN DIEGO	99	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3626	THE SPRINGS AT WYANDOT TRAIL	3.1%	78.5	A	OH	LANCASTER	52	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
3627	ALDEN COURTS OF SHOREWOOD	3.1%	78.5	C	IL	SHOREWOOD	50	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3628	CLARU DEVILLE NURSING CENTER	3.1%	78.5	F	MO	FREDERICKTOWN	90	—
3629	PICO RIVERA HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	78.5	C	CA	PICO RIVERA	99	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
3630	Havenwood Care Center	3.1%	78.5	C	MN	BEMIDJI	65	—
3631	The Birches at Trillium Woods	3.1%	78.5	A	MN	PLYMOUTH	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
3632	BRIARFIELD MANOR	3.1%	78.5	C	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	92	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
3633	Accura Healthcare of Milford	3.1%	78.5	A	IA	Milford	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
3634	ELLIS NURSING HOME (THE)	3.1%	78.5	C	MA	NORWOOD	191	A FRANCHI CONTRACTORS INC
3635	Pine View Transitional Rehab	3.1%	78.5	B	UT	South Ogden	30	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3636	Royal of Fairhaven Nursing Center	3.1%	78.5	B	MA	FAIRHAVEN	107	—
3637	SOUTH HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.1%	78.5	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	101	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3638	Center at Zaragoza, LLC	3.1%	78.5	D	TX	El Paso	80	VERITAS MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
3639	HOME AT TAYLOR'S POINTE	3.1%	78.5	A	OH	CINCINNATI	92	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3640	Solano Post Acute	3.1%	78.5	B	CA	VALLEJO	166	9560 PICO LLC
3641	NHC HEALTHCARE, SPARTA	3.1%	78.3	A	TN	SPARTA	96	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3642	PARK MANOR HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.1%	78.3	A	AL	NORTHPORT	152	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3643	CHARLTON PLACE REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.1%	78.3	C	AL	DEATSVILLE	65	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
3644	MAGNOLIA GARDENS CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	3.1%	78.3	B	CA	GRANADA HILLS	99	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
3645	Medilodge of Port Huron	3.1%	78.3	A	MI	Fort Gratiot	127	B&Y TRUST
3646	Timothy Daniels House	3.1%	78.3	B	MA	HOLLISTON	40	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
3647	Regency on the Lake - Fort Gratiot	3.1%	78.3	A	MI	Fort Gratiot	130	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3648	HIGHLAND OAKS HEALTH CENTER	3.1%	78.3	D	OH	MCCONNELSVILLE	99	M MEISELS FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
3649	EDINBORO MANOR	3.1%	78.3	C	PA	EDINBORO	121	HCF INC
3650	OSSIAN HEALTH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	78.3	B	IN	OSSIAN	100	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL

Showing 3,601–3,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.