Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,551–3,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3551	CONCORD HEALTH & REHAB CTR	3.2%	79.0	A	OH	WHEELERSBURG	75	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3552	BELL MINOR HOME, THE	3.2%	79.0	C	GA	GAINESVILLE	104	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
3553	MAPLECREST REHAB & LIVING CENTER	3.2%	79.0	A	ME	MADISON	58	—
3554	HUNTINGTON WOODS CARE & REHAB CENTER	3.2%	79.0	A	OH	WESTLAKE	82	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3555	Chautauqua Guest Home #3	3.2%	78.9	A	IA	Charles City	57	FLOYD COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL COMMISSION
3556	LAWRENCE CO NURSING CENTER	3.2%	78.9	A	MS	MONTICELLO	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3557	SOUTHLAND NURSING HOME	3.2%	78.9	A	AL	MARION	91	QUALITY CARE REHAB INC
3558	Edgewood Health & Rehabilitation	3.2%	78.9	A	MS	Byram	119	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
3559	VANCREST OF URBANA, INC	3.2%	78.9	A	OH	URBANA	75	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
3560	Hillcrest Manor Sanitarium	3.2%	78.9	A	CA	NATIONAL CITY	98	—
3561	Oak Park Place of Nakoma	3.2%	78.9	B	WI	Madison	33	—
3562	CREEKSIDE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	3.2%	78.9	A	TN	MADISON	139	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST
3563	Greenfield Care Center of Fillmore, LLC	3.2%	78.9	C	CA	Fillmore	99	—
3564	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF RENO	3.2%	78.9	A	NV	RENO	42	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3565	RIVER POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	3.2%	78.9	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	68	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
3566	OTTERBEIN ST MARYS RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	3.2%	78.8	A	OH	ST MARYS	53	OTTERBEIN HOME
3567	VALLEY OAKS CARE CENTER	3.2%	78.8	B	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	67	—
3568	CYPRESS POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	3.2%	78.8	A	OH	ENGLEWOOD	70	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3569	GLENDALE HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.2%	78.8	A	CA	GLENDALE	48	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
3570	GRACEMORE NURSING AND REHAB	3.2%	78.8	B	GA	BRUNSWICK	60	—
3571	WEBSTER MANOR REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.2%	78.8	B	MA	WEBSTER	135	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
3572	THE WILLOWS AT TIFFIN	3.2%	78.8	B	OH	TIFFIN	67	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3573	LAKEWOOD VILLA	3.2%	78.8	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	57	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
3574	Orchard Grove Health Campus	3.2%	78.8	B	MI	Romeo	55	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3575	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF COLORADO SPRINGS	3.2%	78.8	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	34	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3576	COPPER KNOLL HEALTH & REHAB LLC	3.2%	78.8	B	OH	WASHINGTN C H	75	TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
3577	ELDERCREST REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.2%	78.8	D	PA	MUNHALL	48	RAINTREE CONSULTING GROUP LLC
3578	NORTH POINT SKILLED NURSING CENTER	3.2%	78.8	D	KS	PAOLA	53	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
3579	HERITAGE MANOR OF STRATMORE NURSING & REHAB CTR	3.2%	78.8	A	LA	SHREVEPORT	142	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3580	Regency at Livonia	3.2%	78.8	B	MI	Livonia	128	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
3581	Good Samaritan Society - Atkinson	3.2%	78.7	F	NE	Atkinson	61	SANFORD
3582	Sunnybrook Rehabilitation Center	3.2%	78.7	A	NC	Raleigh	95	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3583	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ORANGE PARK	3.2%	78.7	A	FL	ORANGE PARK	180	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
3584	Wilson Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	3.2%	78.7	D	NC	Wilson	90	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
3585	St. Anthony Healthcare Center	3.2%	78.7	B	MI	Warren	142	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3586	NURSE CARE OF BUCKHEAD	3.2%	78.7	C	GA	ATLANTA	220	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
3587	CARE ONE AT NEW BEDFORD	3.2%	78.7	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	154	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3588	Pasadena Palace TCU	3.2%	78.7	B	CA	PASADENA	75	SAINT CABRINI HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
3589	SOMERSET WOODS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	3.2%	78.7	C	NJ	SOMERSET	148	—
3590	FORT SANDERS SEVIER NURSING HOME	3.2%	78.7	—	TN	SEVIERVILLE	54	—
3591	Spring Creek Healthcare Center	3.2%	78.7	D	UT	Salt Lake City	92	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
3592	Edgewood Convalescent Home	3.2%	78.7	A	IA	Edgewood	56	KEVIN PERRINJAQUET ESTATE
3593	Regency Heights-Detroit	3.2%	78.7	C	MI	Detroit	168	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3594	PALM GARDEN OF CLEARWATER	3.2%	78.7	A	FL	CLEARWATER	165	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
3595	YORKTOWN REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	3.2%	78.7	A	NY	CORTLANDT MANOR	200	—
3596	CAREONE AT WAYNE	3.2%	78.7	B	NJ	WAYNE	101	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
3597	SAN JOSE NURSING CENTER	3.2%	78.7	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	55	—
3598	Lindsay Nursing & Rehab	3.2%	78.6	B	OK	Lindsay	106	—
3599	SAN PABLO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER	3.2%	78.6	B	CA	SAN PABLO	108	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3600	SUNRAY HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.2%	78.6	D	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	CAMBRIDGE HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC

Showing 3,551–3,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.