Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,501–3,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3501	GREEN ACRES CARE CENTER LLC	3.2%	79.2	A	GA	LAGRANGE	116	WELLSTAR HEALTH SYSTEM INC
3502	CONCORD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.2%	79.2	A	NJ	LAKEWOOD	120	—
3503	THE ELMS CENTER	3.2%	79.2	C	NH	MILFORD	52	603 HEALTHCARE LLC
3504	NHC Healthcare - Garden City	3.2%	79.2	B	SC	Garden City	148	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3505	ADMIRAL'S POINTE NURSING & REHABILITATION	3.2%	79.2	A	OH	HURON	90	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3506	THE MANOR AT GREENDALE	3.2%	79.2	A	OH	FINDLAY	77	HCF INC
3507	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF GLENDALE	3.2%	79.2	A	AZ	GLENDALE	54	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3508	West Chicago Living and Rehab Center	3.2%	79.2	F	IL	WEST CHICAGO	120	—
3509	WESTMINSTER COMMONS	3.2%	79.2	C	GA	ATLANTA	90	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
3510	BIG MEADOWS	3.2%	79.2	C	IL	SAVANNA	83	—
3511	RIVERVIEW	3.2%	79.2	B	OH	COLUMBUS	145	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
3512	SILVER HILLS HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.2%	79.2	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	155	COVENANT CARE LLC
3513	THE REHABILITATION CENTER OF OAKLAND	3.2%	79.2	B	CA	OAKLAND	70	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3514	FLORALA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION LLC	3.2%	79.2	A	AL	FLORALA	85	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3515	PARK REGENCY CARE CENTER	3.2%	79.2	B	CA	LA HABRA	99	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
3516	OAKS AT AVON	3.2%	79.2	B	FL	AVON PARK	104	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3517	Durand Senior Care and Rehab Center	3.2%	79.2	B	MI	Durand	141	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
3518	Azria Health Prairie Ridge	3.2%	79.1	B	IA	Mediapolis	62	BCP IOWA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
3519	Avalon Care Center Federal Way, L.L.C.	3.2%	79.1	D	WA	FEDERAL WAY	120	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
3520	Quince Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.2%	79.1	C	TN	MEMPHIS	188	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
3521	HORIZON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.2%	79.1	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	138	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
3522	Advanced Health Care of Coeur d'Alene	3.2%	79.1	A	ID	Coeur d'Alene	34	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3523	HERITAGE MANOR OF VILLE PLATTE	3.2%	79.1	A	LA	VILLE PLATTE	124	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3524	JACKSONVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	3.2%	79.1	A	AL	JACKSONVILLE	167	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
3525	REGENCY OAKS HEALTH CENTER	3.2%	79.1	A	FL	CLEARWATER	60	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
3526	Betty Ann Nursing Center	3.2%	79.0	B	OK	Grove	60	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
3527	NHC PLACE SUMNER	3.2%	79.0	B	TN	GALLATIN	92	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
3528	LANDMARK OF COLLINS	3.2%	79.0	A	MS	COLLINS	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3529	Elmwood Manor Nursing Home	3.2%	79.0	B	OK	Wewoka	46	—
3530	QUEEN ANNE HEALTHCARE	3.2%	79.0	A	WA	SEATTLE	120	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
3531	PINK BUD HOME FOR THE GOLDEN YEARS	3.2%	79.0	B	AR	GREENWOOD	110	—
3532	HIGHLAND HOME	3.2%	79.0	B	MS	RIDGELAND	120	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3533	GLENDALE PLACE CARE CENTER	3.2%	79.0	B	OH	CINCINNATI	122	CONCEPT REHAB INC
3534	RIVERBEND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	3.2%	79.0	A	LA	BELLE CHASSE	120	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3535	SAVANNAH NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.2%	79.0	B	TN	SAVANNAH	120	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
3536	AHC OF LANDERHAVEN LLC	3.2%	79.0	B	OH	MAYFIELD HEIGHTS	46	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
3537	Autumnwood of McBain	3.2%	79.0	C	MI	McBain	95	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3538	LEGACY TRANSITIONAL CARE & REHABILITATION	3.2%	79.0	C	GA	ATLANTA	186	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
3539	LAKE ANDES SENIOR LIVING	3.2%	79.0	A	SD	LAKE ANDES	43	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
3540	The Oaks at Woodfield	3.2%	79.0	A	MI	Grand Blanc	64	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3541	CAREMERIDIAN LLC, DBA NEURORESTORATIVE	3.2%	79.0	C	NV	RENO	36	CAREMERIDIAN LLC
3542	MILLINGTON HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.2%	79.0	C	TN	MILLINGTON	85	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
3543	KEARSLEY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	3.2%	79.0	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	96	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3544	Burford Manor	3.2%	79.0	B	OK	Davis	73	—
3545	Fountain View of Monroe	3.2%	79.0	A	MI	Monroe	119	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3546	HILLCREST CARE CENTER INC	3.2%	79.0	C	MO	DE SOTO	120	—
3547	FORT WALTON REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	3.2%	79.0	A	FL	FORT WALTON BEACH	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3548	OAK PARK CARE CENTER	3.2%	79.0	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	120	MLS ACQUISITION LLC
3549	MEDICALODGES INDEPENDENCE	3.2%	79.0	A	KS	INDEPENDENCE	45	MEDICALODGES INC
3550	CATHEDRAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.2%	79.0	A	IN	JASPER	65	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 3,501–3,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.