Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

3,451–3,500

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3451	Scottish Pines Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	3.3%	79.5	A	NC	Laurinburg	149	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
3452	COMMUNITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.3%	79.5	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	115	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3453	Regency at St. Clair Shores	3.3%	79.5	B	MI	St. Clair Shores	146	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3454	SECORA REHABILITATION OF CASCADIA	3.3%	79.5	A	OR	PORTLAND	53	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
3455	CENTRAL MONTANA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.3%	79.5	C	MT	LEWISTOWN	85	—
3456	ALAMEDA CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.5	A	CA	BURBANK	89	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
3457	COLONIAL VILLAGE	3.3%	79.5	B	KS	OVERLAND PARK	40	WSG LLC
3458	MSM Brigham City LLC	3.3%	79.5	C	UT	Brigham City	41	GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
3459	O'BRIEN MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE C	3.3%	79.4	B	OH	MASURY	87	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
3460	OAKLAND HEIGHTS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.3%	79.4	B	CA	OAKLAND	48	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
3461	Hilltop Estates	3.3%	79.4	A	NE	Gothenburg	64	—
3462	Colonial Manor Nursing Home	3.3%	79.4	A	MN	LAKEFIELD	37	—
3463	VISTA KNOLL SPECIALIZED CARE FACILITY	3.3%	79.4	A	CA	VISTA	119	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
3464	DYER NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.3%	79.4	B	TN	DYER	120	—
3465	RAE-ANN WESTLAKE	3.3%	79.4	A	OH	WESTLAKE	130	RA OPCO LLC
3466	PLANTATION NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.3%	79.4	A	FL	PLANTATION	152	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
3467	VICTORIA CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.4	B	CA	BALDWIN PARK	49	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
3468	PARADISE VALLEY HEALTH CARE	3.3%	79.4	A	CA	NATIONAL CITY	86	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
3469	LEGACY AT COLLEGE HILL	3.3%	79.4	B	KS	WICHITA	75	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
3470	MARIA JOSEPH LIVING CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.4	A	OH	DAYTON	266	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3471	Novi Lakes Health Campus	3.3%	79.4	B	MI	Novi	54	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
3472	FOUNTAIN VIEW MANOR, INC	3.3%	79.4	C	OK	HENRYETTA	119	—
3473	MONT MARIE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.3%	79.4	B	MA	HOLYOKE	84	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
3474	Morgantown Care & Rehabilitation Center	3.3%	79.4	B	KY	Morgantown	122	WHEATEN LLC
3475	ROYAL OAK NURSING & REHAB	3.3%	79.4	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	168	—
3476	ARLINGTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.3%	79.4	B	WA	ARLINGTON	76	—
3477	INGLESIDE MANOR	3.3%	79.4	C	WI	MOUNT HOREB	80	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
3478	LAUREL RIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	3.3%	79.4	A	CT	RIDGEFIELD	126	YSRO TRUST
3479	The Lodge at Rocky Mount Health and Rehabilitation	3.3%	79.4	C	NC	Rocky Mount	100	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
3480	DESERT SPRINGS POST ACUTE	3.3%	79.4	C	CA	PALM DESERT	178	HCR HEALTHCARE LLC
3481	Sunset Rehabilitation and Health Care	3.3%	79.4	B	IL	CANTON	115	—
3482	Windemere Park Health and Rehabilitation Center	3.3%	79.4	B	MI	Warren	92	—
3483	Qualicare Nursing Home	3.3%	79.4	B	MI	Detroit	96	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
3484	Signature Healthcare of Georgetown	3.3%	79.4	A	KY	Georgetown	65	WHEATEN LLC
3485	CLEARVIEW NURSING CENTER	3.3%	79.4	C	MO	SIKESTON	90	—
3486	Heartland Living & Rehab at the Moses H Cone Memor	3.3%	79.4	B	NC	Greensboro	107	CENTURY CARE MANAGEMENT INC
3487	Mini-Cassia Care Center	3.3%	79.4	A	ID	Burley	68	QUEST FLP
3488	SILVER CROSS HEALTH & REHAB	3.3%	79.4	B	MS	BROOKHAVEN	60	DT INVESTMENTS LLC
3489	WASHINGTON CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.4	A	MS	GREENVILLE	60	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
3490	SIENA GARDENS REHABILITATION & TRANSITIONAL CARE	3.3%	79.3	A	OH	CINCINNATI	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3491	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT CHEVY CHASE	3.3%	79.3	B	MD	CHEVY CHASE	172	M MEISELS FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
3492	PLUM CITY CARE CTR	3.3%	79.3	A	WI	PLUM CITY	50	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
3493	AMAYA SPRINGS HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.3%	79.3	C	CA	SPRING VALLEY	50	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
3494	STAR CITY REHABILITATION AND NURSING	3.3%	79.3	C	VA	ROANOKE	116	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
3495	CAPRI GARDENS	3.3%	79.3	B	OH	LEWIS CENTER	82	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
3496	WARRENTON MANOR	3.3%	79.3	C	MO	WRIGHT CITY	120	—
3497	SUMMIT AT PLANTSVILLE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILI	3.3%	79.3	B	CT	PLANTSVILLE	150	YSRO TRUST
3498	Ledgewood Manor	3.3%	79.3	B	ME	WINDHAM	60	—
3499	TIFFANY HALL NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	3.3%	79.3	A	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	120	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3500	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT COKESBURY VILLAGE	3.3%	79.3	A	DE	HOCKESSIN	10	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 3,451–3,500 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.