Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,601–4,650

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4601	ST MARY'S ALZHEIMER'S CENTER	2.4%	72.8	B	OH	COLUMBIANA	90	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
4602	THE PAVILION AT STOW FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATIO	2.4%	72.8	B	OH	STOW	51	NPNH1 LLC
4603	WOODLAND MANOR	2.4%	72.8	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	94	—
4604	Franciscan Woods	2.4%	72.7	C	WI	BROOKFIELD	110	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
4605	LIBERTY HEIGHTS	2.4%	72.7	B	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	42	CCRC OPS MB1 T LLC
4606	Lakepointe Senior Care and Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	72.7	A	MI	Clinton Township	134	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4607	Palo Alto Post-Acute	2.4%	72.7	B	CA	PALO ALTO	66	COVENANT CARE LLC
4608	SILVER RIDGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.4%	72.7	C	NV	LAS VEGAS	148	COVENANT CARE LLC
4609	APERION CARE MIDLOTHIAN	2.4%	72.7	A	IL	MIDLOTHIAN	91	DECLARATION OF TRUST OF YOSEF MEYSTEL
4610	HARMONY POINTE CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.7	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	125	LONG PEAK OPCO LLC
4611	KNOLLWOOD MANOR	2.4%	72.7	A	TN	LAFAYETTE	49	—
4612	STEVENS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF HALLE	2.4%	72.7	C	TX	HALLETTSVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4613	BIRCHWOOD PLAZA	2.4%	72.7	C	IL	CHICAGO	200	—
4614	PLEASANT LAKE VILLA	2.4%	72.7	B	OH	PARMA	209	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
4615	St. Agnes Healthcare and Rehab Center	2.4%	72.7	A	LA	Breaux Bridge	128	—
4616	Autumn Woods Residential Health	2.4%	72.7	C	MI	Warren	293	—
4617	HEARDMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	2.4%	72.7	C	GA	ELBERTON	60	—
4618	MAUNALANI NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.7	D	HI	HONOLULU	100	—
4619	Loris Rehab And Nursing Center, LLC	2.4%	72.6	A	SC	Loris	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
4620	TUCKER HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.6	D	PA	PHILADELPHIA	180	—
4621	BELLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.6	A	TN	BELLS	120	—
4622	ROYAL WAYLAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.4%	72.6	A	MA	WAYLAND	40	—
4623	Courville at Nashua	2.4%	72.6	B	NH	NASHUA	94	THE COURVILLE COMPANY INC
4624	Hawkeye Care Center Dubuque	2.4%	72.6	B	IA	Asbury	80	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
4625	INFINITY CARE OF EAST LOS ANGELES	2.4%	72.6	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
4626	CEDARS OF LEBANON NURSING CENTER	2.4%	72.6	F	KY	LEBANON	81	—
4627	CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AT HAMPTON WOODS THE	2.4%	72.6	A	OH	POLAND	26	—
4628	GARDENS AT TERRACINA HEALTH & REHABILITATION	2.4%	72.6	A	FL	NAPLES	30	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
4629	RIDGEWOOD HEALTH SERVICES, INC.	2.4%	72.6	D	AL	JASPER	98	KELLEY HEALTH HOLDINGS INC
4630	SIERRA WINDS	2.4%	72.6	D	AZ	PEORIA	70	—
4631	COUNTRY MANOR HEALTHCARE	2.4%	72.6	A	CA	LAKE VIEW TERRACE	99	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
4632	CASTLE MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.6	B	CA	NATIONAL CITY	99	LIFE GENERATIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
4633	KADIMA REHABILITATION & NURSING AT HARMONY	2.4%	72.6	C	PA	HARMONY	115	KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
4634	EMPRESS CARE CENTER, LLC	2.4%	72.6	B	CA	SAN JOSE	67	—
4635	TOUCHPOINTS AT MANCHESTER	2.4%	72.6	A	CT	MANCHESTER	127	APEX ADVISORS
4636	MONTEREY POST ACUTE	2.4%	72.5	B	CA	MONTEREY	78	9560 PICO LLC
4637	GREENE MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.5	A	NY	CATSKILL	120	—
4638	ANAHEIM CREST NURSING CENTER	2.4%	72.5	B	CA	ANAHEIM	83	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
4639	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF SPRINGHILL	2.4%	72.5	A	AL	MOBILE	46	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4640	FIDDLERS GREEN MANOR REHAB AND NURSING CENTER	2.4%	72.5	C	NY	SPRINGVILLE	82	—
4641	Liberty Commons Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	72.5	B	NC	Wilmington	82	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
4642	LAFAYETTE EXTENDED CARE	2.4%	72.5	A	AL	LAFAYETTE	69	PRIME MANAGEMENT LLC
4643	CALIFORNIA PARK POST ACUTE	2.4%	72.5	C	CA	CHICO	90	DG 2016 HOLDINGS TRUST DATED SEPTEMBER 14 2016
4644	APPLE REHAB COCCOMO	2.4%	72.5	D	CT	MERIDEN	100	—
4645	MADISON POST ACUTE	2.4%	72.5	D	WA	EVERETT	59	—
4646	Advanced Health Care of Sacramento	2.4%	72.5	A	CA	Sacramento	40	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4647	TOWER HILL HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.4%	72.5	F	IL	SOUTH ELGIN	206	—
4648	Oxford Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	72.5	B	NC	Oxford	160	ML MILANO 2022 FAMILY TRUST
4649	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF LAS VEGAS	2.4%	72.5	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4650	CATERED MANOR CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.5	C	CA	LONG BEACH	83	COVENANT CARE LLC

Showing 4,601–4,650 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.