Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,801–4,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4801	CARROLLWOOD CARE CENTER	0.3%	68.5	B	FL	TAMPA	120	—
4802	WILLOWCREST	0.3%	68.5	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	44	JEFFERSON HEALTH CORPORATION
4803	Midlands Living Center L L C	0.3%	68.5	B	IA	Council Bluffs	94	—
4804	TAYLOR COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	68.5	B	GA	BUTLER	78	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4805	GRANVILLE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.3%	68.5	B	NY	GRANVILLE	120	—
4806	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY CANTON	0.3%	68.5	B	SD	CANTON	56	SANFORD
4807	Azle Manor Health Care and Rehabilitation	0.3%	68.5	F	TX	Azle	142	BURMONT INC
4808	HENNESSEY NURSING & REHAB	0.3%	68.5	A	OK	HENNESSEY	50	—
4809	MORNINGSIDE MANOR	0.3%	68.5	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
4810	BISHOP MCCARTHY CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE	0.3%	68.5	B	NJ	VINELAND	182	—
4811	ROYAL CARE OF AVON PARK	0.3%	68.5	A	FL	AVON PARK	90	—
4812	Elderwood at Grand Island	0.3%	68.5	A	NY	GRAND ISLAND	90	—
4813	Cedars Health Center	0.3%	68.5	C	MS	TUPELO	140	—
4814	GOLDEN ACRES MANOR	0.3%	68.5	A	ND	CARRINGTON	64	—
4815	Shady Lawn Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	68.5	B	KY	Cadiz	50	—
4816	Helmwood Healthcare	0.3%	68.5	A	KY	Elizabethtown	60	—
4817	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - LIBERAL	0.3%	68.5	F	KS	LIBERAL	45	SANFORD
4818	GLADEVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	68.5	B	CT	OLD SAYBROOK	132	—
4819	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	68.5	A	GA	CLEVELAND	89	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
4820	Havasu Nursing Center	0.3%	68.5	B	AZ	LAKE HAVASU CITY	118	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
4821	BRONX PARK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.3%	68.5	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
4822	CORTLAND PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	68.5	C	NY	CORTLAND	120	—
4823	Merced Behavioral Center	0.3%	68.5	A	CA	MERCED	96	—
4824	LANDMARK NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	68.5	A	MS	BOONEVILLE	80	—
4825	FALLSVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	68.5	C	NJ	BOONTON	117	—
4826	Oakmont Healthcare and Rehabilitation of Humble	0.3%	68.5	D	TX	Humble	0	—
4827	MEDICAL MANAGEMENT HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.3%	68.5	C	GA	MACON	100	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
4828	MULBERRY CREEK NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.3%	68.5	B	VA	MARTINSVILLE	300	MCCLINTIC OPERATIONS HOLDCO II LLC
4829	Vista Ridge Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	68.5	D	TX	Lewisville	0	—
4830	Kempton Of Charleston	0.3%	68.5	C	SC	Charleston	23	—
4831	Avina of Mayville	0.3%	68.5	C	WI	Mayville	80	—
4832	WALDON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	68.5	C	LA	KENNER	205	INSPIRED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4833	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF MERIDIAN	0.3%	68.5	B	MS	MERIDIAN	84	—
4834	THE SPRINGS OF TEXARKANA	0.3%	68.1	B	AR	TEXARKANA	173	RED RIVER MANAGEMENT LLC
4835	EVANSVILLE CARE CENTER	0.3%	68.1	A	MN	EVANSVILLE	27	—
4836	SEQUOYAH POINTE SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.3%	68.1	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	125	BRIDGES ESOP INC
4837	WARREN BARR GOLD COAST	0.3%	68.1	F	IL	CHICAGO	271	—
4838	WHITNEY REHABILITATION CARE CENTER	0.3%	68.1	A	CT	HAMDEN	150	—
4839	AVIATA AT UNIVERSITY HILLS	0.3%	68.1	C	FL	PENSACOLA	120	—
4840	MOMENTOUS HEALTH AT SIDNEY	0.3%	68.1	A	OH	SIDNEY	51	—
4841	BELLA TERRA MORTON GROVE	0.3%	68.1	F	IL	MORTON GROVE	211	—
4842	FINGER LAKES CENTER FOR LIVING	0.3%	68.1	A	NY	AUBURN	80	—
4843	TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT AT SPAULDING HOSP NORTH SHO	0.3%	68.1	—	MA	SALEM	40	—
4844	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-Appleton	0.3%	68.1	A	WI	Appleton	88	—
4845	HIGHLAND PINES NURSING HOME	0.3%	68.1	D	TX	LONGVIEW	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4846	AVIATA AT PALMA SOLA BAY	0.3%	68.1	C	FL	BRADENTON	105	—
4847	LAWRENCE PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.3%	68.1	A	KS	LAWRENCE	40	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
4848	NORTHFIELD VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	68.1	B	OH	NORTHFIELD	70	VRC MANAGEMENT INC
4849	Cityview Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	68.1	B	TX	Fort Worth	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
4850	Conover Nursing And Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	68.1	A	NC	Conover	90	—

Showing 4,801–4,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.