Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,301–5,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5301	PARK NURSING HOME	0.3%	65.2	C	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	196	—
5302	SPINDLETOP HILL NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	TX	BEAUMONT	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5303	ROSS MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE CTR	0.3%	65.2	A	GA	KENNESAW	100	—
5304	Elderwood at Amherst	0.3%	65.2	C	NY	Amherst	92	—
5305	AVIR AT ARDEN WOOD	0.3%	65.2	F	TX	HOUSTON	0	—
5306	SEACOAST NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	MA	GLOUCESTER	142	—
5307	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE NORTH OLMSTED	0.3%	65.2	D	OH	NORTH OLMSTED	67	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
5308	HANOVER HILL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	NH	MANCHESTER	124	—
5309	The Hurlbut	0.3%	65.2	C	NY	Rochester	160	—
5310	Holiday Retirement Home Inc	0.3%	65.2	B	RI	Manville	170	—
5311	THE HEALTH CENTER AT STANDIFER PLACE	0.3%	65.2	A	TN	CHATTANOOGA	444	—
5312	ELKINS REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	WV	ELKINS	111	—
5313	BIG SPRING CARE CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE	0.3%	65.2	A	MO	HUMANSVILLE	60	DKDP MISSOURI LLC
5314	PINE VALLEY COMMUNITY VILLAGE	0.3%	65.2	D	WI	RICHLAND CENTER	80	—
5315	EMERGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION AT GLEN COVE	0.3%	65.2	B	NY	GLEN COVE	102	—
5316	MACON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	MO	MACON	84	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
5317	AVIATA AT SHOAL CREEK	0.3%	65.2	B	FL	CRESTVIEW	120	—
5318	Pomeroy Living Sterling Skilled Rehabilitation	0.3%	65.2	A	MI	Sterling Heights	176	—
5319	CHARLWELL HOUSE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	B	MA	NORWOOD	124	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
5320	MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	OK	MCALESTER	100	JFB OK TRUST
5321	ORONO COMMONS	0.3%	65.2	B	ME	ORONO	80	—
5322	GILLETTE NURSING HOME	0.3%	65.2	A	OH	WARREN	99	—
5323	ROSE HAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	OR	ROSEBURG	193	VOLARE HEALTH LLC
5324	CAVALIER HEALTHCARE OF TRUSSVILLE	0.3%	65.2	C	AL	TRUSSVILLE	125	—
5325	MCLOUD NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	OK	MCLOUD	80	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
5326	WATERS OF SYRACUSE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.3%	65.2	C	IN	SYRACUSE	66	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5327	ELLICOTT CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.3%	65.2	B	NY	BUFFALO	160	—
5328	GREENWOOD MEADOWS	0.3%	65.2	B	IN	GREENWOOD	169	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5329	INDEPENDENCE CARE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILIT	0.3%	65.2	B	NY	RIVERDALE	190	—
5330	TENNESSEE VETERANS HOME	0.3%	65.2	B	TN	MURFREESBORO	140	TENNESSEE STATE VETERANS HOME BOARD
5331	GULFSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	FL	CLEARWATER	76	—
5332	ALPINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	A	NY	LITTLE FALLS	80	—
5333	ALLBRIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	OH	COLUMBUS	43	—
5334	HERITAGE HILLS LIVING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	OK	MCALESTER	81	—
5335	SINGLETON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	A	OH	CLEVELAND	50	—
5336	PARK PLACE NURSING FACILITY	0.3%	65.2	A	GA	MONROE	175	—
5337	WAVERLY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	A	VA	WAVERLY	120	—
5338	HEART OF THE OZARKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	MO	AVA	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5339	VISTA GRANDE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	F	CO	CORTEZ	101	CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
5340	HAMMOND NURSING HOME	0.3%	65.2	A	LA	HAMMOND	120	—
5341	RIVERVIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	64.6	F	TX	BOERNE	0	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
5342	PECAN CREEK HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	64.6	C	TX	HAMILTON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5343	Ambassador Health of Lincoln	0.2%	64.6	B	NE	Lincoln	122	AMBASSADOR HOLDING COMPANY
5344	SINAI POST-ACUTE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	64.6	D	NJ	NEWARK	430	—
5345	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE PLANT CITY	0.2%	64.6	A	FL	PLANT CITY	180	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
5346	ACHIEVE REHAB AND NURSING FACILITY	0.2%	64.6	C	NY	LIBERTY	140	—
5347	Grace Barker Nursing Center	0.2%	64.6	A	RI	Warren	86	—
5348	LOCUST GROVE RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.2%	64.6	C	PA	MIFFLIN	104	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
5349	St. Helena Parish Nursing Home	0.2%	64.6	C	LA	Greensburg	72	—
5350	RIVERSIDE OAKS	0.2%	64.6	B	TX	VICTORIA	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT

Showing 5,301–5,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.