Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,851–5,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5851	Sardis Oaks	0.2%	61.8	B	NC	Charlotte	124	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
5852	The Pearl Nursing Center of Rochester	0.2%	61.8	C	NY	Rochester	120	—
5853	Mansfield Nursing Center	0.2%	61.8	B	LA	MANSFIELD	100	THE VERNICE C WRIGHT IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5854	MANHATTANVIEW CTR FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCAR	0.2%	61.8	B	NJ	UNION CITY	127	—
5855	ASHTON PLACE HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	0.2%	61.8	A	AR	BARLING	122	—
5856	Countryview Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.2%	61.8	F	TX	Terrell	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5857	Avir at Irving	0.2%	61.8	A	TX	IRVING	0	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
5858	CORDELL NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.8	B	OK	CORDELL	110	ABBOTT FAMILY LLC
5859	North Crest Living Center	0.2%	61.8	B	IA	Council Bluffs	62	—
5860	EXCELCARE AT WILMINGTON LLC	0.2%	61.8	C	DE	WILMINGTON	150	—
5861	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT PIKESVILLE	0.2%	61.8	C	MD	PIKESVILLE	140	4260 GROUP LLC
5862	GRACE MANOR CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	A	CO	BURLINGTON	31	FRONTIER MANAGEMENT INC
5863	SOUTHPOINTE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	61.8	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	100	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
5864	PINE CREST HEALTH AND MEMORY CARE	0.2%	61.8	B	WI	MERRILL	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5865	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.2%	61.8	C	IN	MARION	176	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5866	Seneca Place	0.2%	61.8	B	KY	Louisville	122	—
5867	RIVER POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.2%	61.8	C	IN	EVANSVILLE	68	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
5868	FIDELITY HEALTH CARE	0.2%	61.0	A	CA	EL MONTE	90	—
5869	ROYAL PALM BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	61.0	B	FL	ROYAL PALM BEACH	120	—
5870	SENIOR CARE CENTER - ST MARYS	0.2%	61.0	D	GA	SAINT MARYS	78	SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HEALTH SYSTEM INC
5871	WELLSVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	61.0	D	MO	WELLSVILLE	112	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
5872	UTICA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.0	D	NY	UTICA	120	—
5873	WILKINSON COUNTY SENIOR CARE	0.2%	61.0	A	MS	CENTREVILLE	60	—
5874	Stanley Total Living Center	0.2%	61.0	C	NC	Stanley	106	—
5875	MAPLE HILLS SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.0	B	OH	MCARTHUR	42	LIONSTONE ALS OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5876	KAWEAH HEALTH SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.0	B	CA	VISALIA	70	KAWEAH DELTA HEALTH CARE DISTRICT
5877	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS	0.2%	61.0	B	FL	NAPLES	117	—
5878	South Hadley Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.2%	61.0	B	MA	SOUTH HADLEY	132	—
5879	GARRISON MEM HOSP NSG FAC	0.2%	61.0	A	ND	GARRISON	26	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
5880	NHC HEALTHCARE, LAWRENCEBURG	0.2%	61.0	A	TN	LAWRENCEBURG	96	NHC OP LP
5881	THE HEALTHCARE CENTER AT BUCK CREEK	0.2%	61.0	C	AL	ALABASTER	198	—
5882	Marquis Autumn Hills Memory Care	0.2%	61.0	A	OR	PORTLAND	39	—
5883	LEE MANOR	0.2%	61.0	C	IL	DES PLAINES	262	DOROTHY VANGEL QSS TRUST
5884	SAFIRE REHABILITATION OF NORTHTOWNS, L L C	0.2%	61.0	C	NY	TONAWANDA	100	—
5885	ESSENTIA HEALTH HOMESTEAD	0.2%	61.0	B	MN	DEER RIVER	32	ESSENTIA HEALTH
5886	GORDON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	61.0	A	GA	CALHOUN	117	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5887	MORRIS PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	61.0	C	NY	BRONX	191	—
5888	Nexus at Columbia	0.2%	61.0	C	IL	COLUMBIA	119	—
5889	FOREMOST AT SHARON LLC	0.2%	61.0	B	MA	SHARON	66	—
5890	PRINCETON PLACE-RUSTON	0.2%	61.0	A	LA	Ruston	123	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
5891	FOREST VIEW CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	0.2%	61.0	A	NY	FOREST HILLS	160	ESTATE OF ESTHER FRIEDMAN
5892	WILLOWOOD CARE CENTER OF BRUNSWICK	0.2%	61.0	B	OH	BRUNSWICK	100	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
5893	Hopkins Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	61.0	A	KY	Woodburn	50	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
5894	Bear Lake Memorial Skilled Nursing Facility	0.2%	61.0	A	ID	Montpelier	36	BEAR LAKE COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5895	DANIEL K AKAKA STATE VETERANS HOME	0.2%	61.0	—	HI	KAPOLEI	0	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
5896	CLEVELAND CARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.2%	61.0	C	OK	CLEVELAND	90	JFB OK TRUST
5897	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME OF GUTHRIE, LLC	0.2%	61.0	B	OK	GUTHRIE	125	HMLC LLC
5898	The Springs of Brinkley	0.2%	61.0	C	AR	Brinkley	116	EL DORADO HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
5899	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT BRIAR	0.2%	61.0	A	OH	MIDDLEFIELD	96	—
5900	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR	0.2%	61.0	A	MD	BALTIMORE	20	—

Showing 5,851–5,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.