Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,201–6,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6201	WESTWOOD HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	A	GA	STATESBORO	60	—
6202	ASHLEY MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	0.2%	59.2	A	ND	ASHLEY	31	—
6203	Trinity Village	0.2%	59.2	B	NC	Hickory	104	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
6204	WATERS OF NEW CASTLE, THE	0.2%	59.2	C	IN	NEW CASTLE	66	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6205	Kingsley Specialty Care	0.2%	59.2	C	IA	Kingsley	43	CARE INITIATIVES
6206	The Woodleigh of Baton Rouge	0.2%	59.2	B	LA	Baton Rouge	120	DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE LLC
6207	GREEN HILLS CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	OH	WEST LIBERTY	74	OTTERBEIN HOME
6208	RIVERSIDE CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	FL	MIAMI	120	—
6209	GLASGOW GARDENS	0.2%	59.2	B	MO	GLASGOW	59	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6210	RAMBLING OAKS COURTYARD EXTENSIVE CARE COMMUNITY	0.2%	59.2	D	TX	HIGHLAND VILLAGE	0	TGR HEALTHCARE LLC
6211	GLENS FALLS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.2%	59.2	A	NY	GLENS FALLS	120	—
6212	ANN'S CHOICE	0.2%	59.2	A	PA	WARMINSTER	66	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
6213	SUNRISE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	FL	SUNRISE	237	—
6214	ELMS RETIREMENT VILLAGE INC	0.2%	59.2	A	OH	WELLINGTON	60	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6215	HUNTSVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	TX	HUNTSVILLE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6216	NHC HEALTHCARE, DESLOGE	0.2%	59.2	C	MO	DESLOGE	120	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
6217	KEMP CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	TX	KEMP	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6218	AVIATA AT KISSIMMEE GARDENS	0.2%	59.2	C	FL	KISSIMMEE	120	—
6219	Sandy Health and Rehab	0.2%	59.2	D	UT	Sandy	141	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
6220	COLONIAL MANOR II	0.2%	59.2	A	OK	HOLLIS	92	—
6221	Mullican Care Center	0.2%	59.2	B	TX	Savoy	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6222	CLIFFSIDE REHAB & RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	NY	FLUSHING	218	ESTATE OF ESTHER FRIEDMAN
6223	STONEBRIDGE CHILLICOTHE	0.2%	59.2	C	MO	CHILLICOTHE	75	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
6224	OXFORD NURSING HOME	0.2%	59.2	A	NY	BROOKLYN	235	—
6225	HUMPHREYS COUNTY CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	C	TN	WAVERLY	91	—
6226	LA GRANDE POST ACUTE REHAB	0.2%	59.2	B	OR	LA GRANDE	76	COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
6227	ARCADIA CARE JACKSONVILLE	0.2%	59.2	F	IL	JACKSONVILLE	113	YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
6228	VISTA PACIFICA CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.2%	59.2	A	CA	JURUPA VALLEY	49	—
6229	STROUD NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	59.2	B	OK	STROUD	58	INTERHEALTH LLC
6230	AVIATA AT CORAL BAY	0.2%	59.2	D	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	120	—
6231	Bethany Home	0.2%	59.2	A	IA	Dubuque	66	—
6232	MERIDEN HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	59.2	C	CT	MERIDEN	90	—
6233	METHODIST TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER-DESOTO LLC	0.2%	59.2	C	TX	DESOTO	100	—
6234	OASIS PAVILION NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	AZ	CASA GRANDE	134	COMPASSION CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6235	Southern Hills Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	59.2	C	OK	Tulsa	106	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
6236	HARRISON TERRACE	0.2%	59.2	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	110	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6237	OTTERBEIN MONCLOVA	0.2%	59.2	B	OH	MONCLOVA	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
6238	WATERS OF HARTFORD CITY SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.2%	59.2	B	IN	HARTFORD CITY	65	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6239	ONAGA OPERATOR, LLC	0.2%	59.2	B	KS	ONAGA	45	BARRES LLC
6240	SPRING CREEK REHABILITATION & NURSING CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	NY	BROOKLYN	180	—
6241	EDGEHILL HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	CT	STAMFORD	46	—
6242	REGINA SENIOR LIVING	0.2%	59.2	B	MN	HASTINGS	57	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
6243	NEW ALBANY HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	MS	NEW ALBANY	114	ADVANCED HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
6244	HERITAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	OH	OAKWOOD VILLAGE	60	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6245	TALLASSEE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	0.2%	59.2	A	AL	TALLASSEE	111	JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
6246	HARBORVIEW HEALTH SYSTEMS THOMASTON	0.2%	59.2	C	GA	THOMASTON	119	HARBORVIEW HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6247	Elderwood of Uihlein at Lake Placid	0.2%	59.2	D	NY	LAKE PLACID	156	—
6248	Alcester Care And Rehab Center, Inc	0.2%	59.2	A	SD	ALCESTER	44	CARING PROFESSIONALS INC
6249	Liberty Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	59.2	B	NC	Weldon	50	LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
6250	EMBASSY OF WINCHESTER	0.2%	59.2	B	OH	CANAL WINCHESTER	176	—

Showing 6,201–6,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.