Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,551–6,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6551	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - WOODBRIDGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	IN	EVANSVILLE	67	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
6552	STONEBRIDGE DESOTO	0.1%	57.2	D	MO	DE SOTO	56	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
6553	ALICEVILLE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.1%	57.2	B	AL	ALICEVILLE	100	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
6554	SLATE VALLEY CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	57.2	B	NY	GRANVILLE	88	—
6555	ADDISON POINTE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	IN	CHESTERTON	100	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6556	Hillcrest Firethorn	0.1%	57.2	A	NE	Lincoln	72	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6557	KERN VALLEY HEALTHCARE DISTRICT DP SNF	0.1%	57.2	C	CA	LAKE ISABELLA	74	—
6558	LONGMEADOW CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	RAVENNA	99	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6559	RETREAT AT THE STRATFORD, THE	0.1%	57.2	A	IN	CARMEL	18	MAXWELL GROUP INC
6560	ASCENSION LIVING VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE MCLEAN	0.1%	57.2	A	KS	WICHITA	36	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
6561	MT VERNON NURSING	0.1%	57.2	A	MO	MOUNT VERNON	60	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
6562	HOLIDAY RESORT OF SALINA	0.1%	57.2	D	KS	SALINA	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
6563	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - LAPORTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	IN	LA PORTE	87	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
6564	Avir at Caldwell	0.1%	57.2	C	TX	Caldwell	0	BURLESON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6565	ALTERCARE OF ALLIANCE CTR FOR REHAB & NC INC	0.1%	57.2	B	OH	ALLIANCE	96	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
6566	COTTAGES OF LAKE ST LOUIS	0.1%	57.2	A	MO	LAKE SAINT LOUIS	60	—
6567	Cedar Hill Healthcare Center	0.1%	57.2	C	TX	Cedar Hill	0	—
6568	FOCUSED CARE OF CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	TX	CENTER	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
6569	EXCEL CARE AT THE PINES	0.1%	57.2	D	NJ	ATLANTIC CITY	151	JM AND MAZEL LLC
6570	EDGEWOOD MANOR OF GREENFIELD	0.1%	57.2	A	OH	GREENFIELD	60	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
6571	HUDSON PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	57.2	C	NY	ALBANY	169	—
6572	Edenbrook Sheboygan	0.1%	57.2	D	WI	Sheboygan	121	EDEN SENIOR CARE LLC
6573	BEECH GROVE MEADOWS	0.1%	57.2	C	IN	BEECH GROVE	118	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6574	Campbellsville Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	57.2	A	KY	Campbellsville	67	—
6575	MEADOWVIEW REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	57.2	A	PA	WHITE MARSH	244	—
6576	The Villa at Rose City	0.1%	57.2	F	MI	Rose City	102	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
6577	PUXICO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	57.2	B	MO	PUXICO	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6578	Good Samaritan Society - Pipestone	0.1%	57.2	B	MN	PIPESTONE	82	SANFORD
6579	ARISTA HEALTHCARE	0.1%	57.2	C	IL	NAPERVILLE	153	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
6580	Hickory Heights Health And Rehab, Llc	0.1%	56.1	A	AR	LITTLE ROCK	110	—
6581	Continental Springs, LLC	0.1%	56.1	C	NE	South Sioux City	77	—
6582	WHEATRIDGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	C	CO	WHEAT RIDGE	65	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
6583	Good Samaritan Society - Bethany	0.1%	56.1	B	MN	BRAINERD	79	SANFORD
6584	Santa Fe Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	56.1	B	TX	Weatherford	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
6585	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE AT PARKWOOD	0.1%	56.1	D	IN	LEBANON	106	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6586	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	0.1%	56.1	B	IN	MOORESVILLE	98	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6587	Oak Ridge Care Center	0.1%	56.1	C	WI	UNION GROVE	74	—
6588	MARGARET TIETZ CENTER FOR NURSING CARE INC	0.1%	56.1	B	NY	JAMAICA	200	—
6589	Tower Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	56.1	C	NC	Raleigh	180	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
6590	PREFERRED CARE AT ABSECON	0.1%	56.1	B	NJ	ABSECON	162	—
6591	Adept Nursing & Rehab of Ashland	0.1%	56.1	B	NE	Ashland	97	BRASS NE TRUST
6592	Ontario Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.1%	56.1	C	NY	Canandaigua	98	—
6593	Henson Park Health & Rehabilitation	0.1%	56.1	C	KY	Danville	90	JML 1836 HOLDINGS LLC
6594	LIGHTHOUSE REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	AL	SELMA	68	BALL HEALTHCARE SERVICE INC
6595	STERLING VILLAGE	0.1%	56.1	A	MA	STERLING	143	—
6596	OSPREY POINT NURSING CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	FL	BUSHNELL	60	ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
6597	PAVILION , THE	0.1%	56.1	A	MA	HYANNIS	82	WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE LLC
6598	CELINA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	B	TN	CELINA	78	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
6599	SOCIAL CIRCLE NSG & REHAB CTR	0.1%	56.1	B	GA	SOCIAL CIRCLE	65	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
6600	JEWEL HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	56.1	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	146	—

Showing 6,551–6,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.