Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,901–6,950

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6901	Good Samaritan - Ottumwa	0.9%	59.1	F	IA	Ottumwa	126	SANFORD
6902	FRANKFORT HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	0.9%	59.1	B	IL	WEST FRANKFORT	57	—
6903	Christian Care Communities and Services Mesquite	0.9%	59.1	F	TX	Mesquite	0	—
6904	WILLOWBROOKE COURT-SOUTHAMPTON	0.9%	59.1	A	PA	SOUTHAMPTON	29	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6905	ASHLAND HEALTHCARE	0.9%	59.1	F	MO	ASHLAND	60	—
6906	INDEPENDENCE HOUSE	0.9%	59.1	B	OH	FOSTORIA	50	BLANCHARD VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
6907	MONTAGE RIDGE	0.9%	59.1	C	CO	LAKEWOOD	45	—
6908	SEILING NURSING CENTER	0.9%	59.1	B	OK	SEILING	31	—
6909	TRANSCENDENT HEALTHCARE OF OWENSVILLE	0.9%	59.0	D	IN	OWENSVILLE	68	MAJOR HOSPITAL
6910	SPRINGHURST HEALTH CAMPUS	0.9%	59.0	C	IN	GREENFIELD	74	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
6911	HIGHLANDS POST-ACUTE	0.9%	59.0	B	OH	NORWOOD	55	—
6912	Benjamin Healthcare Center	0.9%	59.0	F	MA	BOSTON	205	—
6913	SACRED HEART NURSING HOME	0.9%	59.0	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	217	DIOCESAN HEALTH FACILITIES
6914	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - WACONIA AND WESTVIEW ACRE	0.9%	59.0	B	MN	WACONIA	75	SANFORD
6915	VIBRA HOSPITAL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA D/P SNF	0.9%	59.0	B	CA	REDDING	32	—
6916	(CLOSED) CLORIA OAKS POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION	0.9%	59.0	F	TN	PALMYRA	75	—
6917	Idaho State Veterans Home - Boise	0.9%	59.0	B	ID	Boise	122	DIVISION OF VETERANS SERVICES
6918	ESSEX NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	59.0	B	IN	LEBANON	38	—
6919	GRACE LUTH COMMUNITIES-PRAIRIE POINTE REHAB SUITES	0.9%	59.0	F	WI	ALTOONA	24	—
6920	THE MEADOWS OF NAPA VALLEY	0.9%	59.0	A	CA	NAPA	69	PRS MANAGEMENT INC
6921	MASONIC VILLAGE AT SEWICKLEY	0.9%	59.0	A	PA	SEWICKLEY	128	—
6922	Grand Village	0.9%	59.0	B	MN	GRAND RAPIDS	114	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
6923	MOUNTAIN VISTA HEALTH CENTER	0.9%	59.0	B	CO	WHEAT RIDGE	168	—
6924	RICHLAND BEAN BLOSSOM HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.0	C	IN	ELLETTSVILLE	74	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
6925	SPANISH COVE HOUSING AUTHORITY	0.9%	59.0	A	OK	YUKON	47	—
6926	GALLATIN REST HOME	0.9%	59.0	B	MT	BOZEMAN	69	—
6927	ALEXANDRIA CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.0	A	IN	ALEXANDRIA	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6928	St Luke's Elmore Long Term Care	0.9%	59.0	A	ID	Mountain Home	38	ST LUKES HEALTH SYSTEM LTD
6929	ENTERPRISE ESTATES NURING CENTER	0.9%	59.0	A	KS	ENTERPRISE	40	—
6930	ASHTON PARKE CARE CENTER INC	0.9%	59.0	C	TX	TEXAS CITY	100	—
6931	SOUTH HERITAGE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	58.9	F	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	74	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
6932	TOWN OF VICI NURSING HOME	0.9%	58.9	C	OK	VICI	73	—
6933	Wapello Specialty Care	0.9%	58.9	C	IA	Wapello	49	CARE INITIATIVES
6934	Good Samaritan Society - Lakota	0.9%	58.9	B	ND	LAKOTA	38	SANFORD
6935	ROLETTE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.9%	58.9	F	ND	ROLETTE	31	—
6936	LINCOLN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.9%	58.9	—	CO	HUGO	22	—
6937	PLYMOUTH SQUARE	0.9%	58.9	F	CA	STOCKTON	38	—
6938	MASON POINT	0.9%	58.9	F	IL	SULLIVAN	122	—
6939	COLORADO STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME - RIFLE	0.9%	58.9	C	CO	RIFLE	89	STATE OF COLORADO
6940	ROSEWALK VILLAGE AT LAFAYETTE	0.9%	58.9	B	IN	LAFAYETTE	141	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6941	State Center Specialty Care	0.9%	58.9	B	IA	State Center	39	CARE INITIATIVES
6942	Hidalgo Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.9%	58.9	D	TX	Edinburg	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6943	RIVER CROSSING OF ROCKFORD	0.9%	58.9	D	IL	ROCKFORD	120	—
6944	RIDGEVIEW REHABILITATION AND SKILLED NURSING	0.9%	58.9	B	TX	CLEBURNE	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6945	PARKMOOR VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.9%	58.9	F	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	115	—
6946	PARSONS PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.9%	58.9	B	KS	PARSONS	43	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
6947	SARATOGA CARE CENTER LLC	0.9%	58.9	D	WY	SARATOGA	46	—
6948	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF RIO G	0.9%	58.9	B	TX	RIO GRANDE CITY	100	—
6949	WEDGEWOOD NURSING HOME	0.9%	58.9	C	TX	FORT WORTH	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
6950	Maristhill Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.9%	58.9	C	MA	WALTHAM	123	COVENANT HEALTH

Showing 6,901–6,950 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.