Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,001–7,050

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7001	Windsor Arbor View	0.8%	58.6	D	TX	Edinburg	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7002	HUDSON PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.8%	58.6	C	NY	ALBANY	169	—
7003	SKYLYN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	58.5	D	SC	SPARTANBURG	26	—
7004	Westwood Specialty Care	0.8%	58.5	C	IA	Sioux City	85	CARE INITIATIVES
7005	ARBOR GROVE VILLAGE	0.8%	58.5	B	IN	GREENSBURG	83	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7006	SPRING RIVER CHRISTIAN VILLAGE INC	0.8%	58.5	D	MO	JOPLIN	120	—
7007	WILLIAMSPORT NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.5	B	IN	WILLIAMSPORT	80	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7008	ST PETERS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	58.5	C	NY	ALBANY	160	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7009	FLANDREAU SANTEE SIOUX TRIBE CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.5	B	SD	FLANDREAU	42	—
7010	Five Counties Nursing Home	0.8%	58.5	B	SD	LEMMON	38	—
7011	BETHESDA SOUTHGATE	0.8%	58.5	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	130	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
7012	ESSENTIA HEALTH GRACE HOME	0.8%	58.5	A	MN	GRACEVILLE	30	—
7013	LIVONIA WOODS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.5	B	MI	LIVONIA	72	—
7014	WI VETERANS HM MACARTHUR HALL	0.8%	58.5	—	WI	KING	116	—
7015	ASCENSION RESURRECTION LIFE	0.8%	58.5	A	IL	CHICAGO	162	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7016	St. Anne's Salvatorian Campus	0.8%	58.5	C	WI	MILWAUKEE	50	ILLUMINUS INC
7017	ALLISONVILLE MEADOWS	0.8%	58.5	C	IN	FISHERS	161	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7018	Briarcliff Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	58.5	D	TX	McAllen	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7019	WILLOWS OF RICHMOND	0.8%	58.5	B	IN	RICHMOND	87	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7020	CALDER WOODS	0.8%	58.5	C	TX	BEAUMONT	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
7021	SUNNY KNOLL CARE CENTRE	0.8%	58.4	C	IA	ROCKWELL CITY	38	—
7022	BUTTE SENIOR LIVING	0.8%	58.4	C	NE	BUTTE	40	—
7023	KATHERINE LUTHER RESIDENTIAL HLTH CARE & REHAB	0.8%	58.4	D	NY	CLINTON	280	—
7024	MRC CREEKSIDE	0.8%	58.4	B	TX	HUNTSVILLE	66	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
7025	FREDERICKA MANOR CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.4	C	CA	CHULA VISTA	174	—
7026	NORTHVIEW VILLAGE	0.8%	58.4	C	MO	SAINT LOUIS	320	—
7027	HERITAGE ON THE MARINA	0.8%	58.4	F	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	32	—
7028	VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA - WEST LOS ANGELES	0.8%	58.4	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	312	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
7029	THE GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY-KISSIMMEE VILLAGE	0.8%	58.4	F	FL	KISSIMMEE	161	SANFORD
7030	HERITAGE OF ELMWOOD NH	0.8%	58.4	C	WI	ELMWOOD	34	—
7031	Burcham Hills Retirement Center	0.8%	58.4	B	MI	East Lansing	133	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7032	Good Samaritan Society - Jackson	0.8%	58.4	A	MN	JACKSON	46	SANFORD
7033	John J Kane Regional Center-Gl	0.8%	58.4	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	255	—
7034	WAYNE WOODLANDS MANOR	0.8%	58.4	D	PA	WAYMART	117	WAYNE MEMORIAL HEALTH SYSTEM INC
7035	Oglala Sioux Lakota Nursing Home	0.8%	58.4	A	NE	Rushville	72	—
7036	POWDER RIVER MANOR	0.8%	58.4	D	MT	BROADUS	41	—
7037	JEFFERSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	58.4	D	TX	BEAUMONT	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7038	BEVERLY PARK PLACE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.8%	58.4	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	271	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE COMMUNITIES INC
7039	KERN VALLEY HEALTHCARE DISTRICT DP SNF	0.8%	58.4	C	CA	LAKE ISABELLA	74	—
7040	Corydon Specialty Care	0.8%	58.3	B	IA	Corydon	71	CARE INITIATIVES
7041	CRYSTAL CREEK AT PRESTON HOLLOW	0.8%	58.3	D	TX	DALLAS	57	—
7042	Mason Creek Transitional Care of Katy	0.8%	58.3	C	TX	Katy	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7043	Wyoming Retirement Center	0.8%	58.3	C	WY	Basin	90	STATE OF WYOMING
7044	ASPIRE OF PRIMGHAR	0.8%	58.3	F	IA	PRIMGHAR	40	—
7045	ST CLARE COMMONS	0.8%	58.3	D	OH	PERRYSBURG	60	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
7046	OUR LADYS HAVEN OF FAIRHAVEN INC	0.8%	58.3	C	MA	FAIRHAVEN	117	DIOCESAN HEALTH FACILITIES
7047	WESTVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	58.3	B	IN	BEDFORD	95	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7048	Bloomsbury at Hayes Barton Place	0.8%	58.3	—	NC	RALEIGH	31	—
7049	CONTINUING CARE AT HIGHLAND SPRINGS	0.8%	58.3	C	TX	DALLAS	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
7050	Strand-Kjorsvig Community Rest Home	0.8%	58.3	B	SD	ROSLYN	35	—

Showing 7,001–7,050 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.