Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,051–7,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7051	Lakeside Generations Health Care Center	0.8%	58.3	A	MN	DASSEL	54	CASSIA
7052	The Highlands	0.8%	58.3	C	IA	Decorah	86	CONTINUUM HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
7053	Good Samaritan - Davenport	0.8%	58.3	D	IA	Davenport	119	SANFORD
7054	MICHAELSEN HEALTH CENTER	0.8%	58.3	B	IL	BATAVIA	99	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7055	Windsor Nursing & Retirement Home	0.8%	58.3	C	MA	SOUTH YARMOUTH	120	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
7056	Dubois Nursing Home	0.8%	58.3	C	PA	DUBOIS	140	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
7057	THE PRESERVE AT FAIRFIELD GLADE	0.8%	58.1	C	TN	CROSSVILLE	60	SANFORD
7058	Ridgewood Rehabilitation & Care Center	0.8%	58.1	C	NE	Seward	82	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7059	Benedictine Health Center	0.8%	58.1	B	MN	DULUTH	96	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7060	OUR LADY OF PEACE NURSING CARE RESIDENCE	0.8%	58.1	C	NY	LEWISTON	250	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7061	BROOKHAVEN AT LEXINGTON	0.8%	58.1	A	MA	LEXINGTON	49	—
7062	CORE OF BEDFORD	0.8%	58.1	C	IN	BEDFORD	37	MAJOR HOSPITAL
7063	HUTSONWOOD AT BRAZIL	0.8%	58.1	C	IN	BRAZIL	86	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
7064	Covenant Village of the Great Lakes	0.8%	58.1	C	MI	Grand Rapids	37	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7065	Tioga Community Care Center	0.8%	58.1	A	LA	Pineville	154	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
7066	Town and Country Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	58.1	C	TX	Boerne	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7067	SAUK CO HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.1	A	WI	REEDSBURG	82	—
7068	Centerville Specialty Care	0.8%	58.1	B	IA	Centerville	46	CARE INITIATIVES
7069	THE CRESTON HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.1	B	OR	PORTLAND	100	—
7070	Croasdaile Village	0.8%	58.1	A	NC	Durham	102	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7071	GOVERNORS CENTER	0.8%	58.1	C	MA	WESTFIELD	100	—
7072	WILLOW CARE NURSING HOME	0.8%	58.1	B	MO	WILLOW SPRINGS	105	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
7073	DR W F & MADA DUNAWAY MANOR	0.8%	58.1	F	OK	GUYMON	77	—
7074	QUARRY HILL	0.8%	58.0	C	ME	CAMDEN	39	—
7075	MORNING SUN CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.0	C	IA	MORNING SUN	50	—
7076	Cottage Grove Place	0.8%	58.0	B	IA	Cedar Rapids	64	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7077	MOUNT JOSEPH SENIOR VILLAGE LLC	0.8%	58.0	F	KS	CONCORDIA	60	—
7078	SURREY PLACE ST LUKES HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING	0.8%	58.0	A	MO	CHESTERFIELD	130	ST LUKES EPISCOPAL PRESBYTERIAN HOSPITAL
7079	Twilight Acres	0.8%	58.0	A	IA	Wall Lake	39	—
7080	ROSEBUD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.0	A	MT	FORSYTH	31	—
7081	MASON CITY AREA NURSING HOME	0.8%	58.0	D	IL	MASON CITY	97	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
7082	GRAPEVINE MEDICAL LODGE	0.8%	58.0	C	TX	GRAPEVINE	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7083	BUCKTAIL MEDICAL CENTER	0.8%	58.0	—	PA	RENOVO	43	—
7084	GREEN HILL	0.8%	58.0	C	NJ	WEST ORANGE	127	—
7085	TOTALLY KIDS SPECIALTY HEALTHCARE - SUN VALLEY	0.8%	58.0	A	CA	SUN VALLEY	45	—
7086	CLARK COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.8%	58.0	C	MO	KAHOKA	99	—
7087	SHANNON MEDICAL CENTER	0.8%	58.0	—	TX	SAN ANGELO	28	—
7088	Broadway Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.8%	58.0	F	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7089	Rocky Mountain Care- Clearfield	0.8%	58.0	D	UT	Clearfield	168	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
7090	Fairview Fellowship Home For Senior Citizens, Inc	0.8%	58.0	B	OK	Fairview	100	—
7091	MASON POINTE CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.0	C	MO	CHESTERFIELD	63	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
7092	BRIGHTON GARDENS OF OMAHA	0.8%	58.0	C	NE	OMAHA	45	—
7093	BENEDICTINE MANOR OF LACROSSE	0.8%	58.0	B	WI	LA CROSSE	80	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7094	WATERFORD, THE	0.8%	58.0	B	FL	JUNO BEACH	60	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7095	NORTH PARK NURSING CENTER	0.8%	57.9	B	IN	EVANSVILLE	103	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7096	NEWNAN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	57.9	C	GA	NEWNAN	104	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7097	Redstone Highlands Health Care	0.8%	57.9	A	PA	GREENSBURG	77	POWERBACK REHABILITATION LLC
7098	RIVERVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CTR	0.8%	57.9	C	GA	SAVANNAH	284	—
7099	Good Samaritan Society Corsica	0.8%	57.9	B	SD	CORSICA	50	—
7100	ST MARKS LIVING	0.8%	57.9	C	MN	AUSTIN	45	PARTNERS SENIOR LIVING OPTIONS LLC

Showing 7,051–7,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.