Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,101–7,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7101	CRISP REGIONAL NSG & REHAB CTR	0.8%	57.9	A	GA	CORDELE	143	—
7102	Embassy at Morehead City	0.8%	57.9	—	NC	MOREHEAD CITY	42	—
7103	Colonial Haven	0.8%	57.9	B	NE	BEEMER	34	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
7104	STARR COUNTY NURSING AND TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.8%	57.9	D	TX	RIO GRANDE CITY	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7105	SAINT ANNE HOME	0.8%	57.9	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	166	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7106	Sterling Nursing and Rehab	0.8%	57.9	A	TX	STERLING CITY	44	—
7107	CRESTWOOD MANOR - 104	0.8%	57.9	A	CA	STOCKTON	190	—
7108	Laguna Rainbow Nursing Center	0.8%	57.9	C	NM	Casa Blanca	58	—
7109	SOUTHFIELD VILLAGE	0.8%	57.9	A	IN	SOUTH BEND	60	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
7110	Black Mountain Neuro-Medical Treatment Center	0.8%	57.9	A	NC	Black Mountain	163	—
7111	CLAIBORNE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	57.9	A	TN	TAZEWELL	100	COVENANT HEALTH
7112	WILLAMETTE VIEW HEALTH CENTER	0.8%	57.9	A	OR	MILWAUKIE	6	—
7113	The Alverno Health Care Facility	0.8%	57.9	B	IA	Clinton	112	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7114	WILLOWCREEK REHAB AND NURSING	0.8%	57.9	C	TX	ABILENE	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7115	Bethesda Of Beresford	0.8%	57.8	A	SD	BERESFORD	39	CARING PROFESSIONALS INC
7116	Good Samaritan Society - Blackduck	0.8%	57.8	A	MN	BLACKDUCK	30	SANFORD
7117	FRIENDSHIP VILLA	0.8%	57.8	F	MT	MILES CITY	107	—
7118	HOLIDAY HILL INC	0.8%	57.8	B	TX	COLEMAN	106	—
7119	MUSCOGEE MANOR & REHABILITATION CTR	0.8%	57.8	A	GA	COLUMBUS	196	—
7120	Eventide Lincoln Care Center	0.8%	57.8	B	NE	Lincoln	197	EVENTIDE
7121	Menno-Olivet Care Center	0.8%	57.8	A	SD	MENNO	41	—
7122	PIONEER LODGE	0.8%	57.8	A	KS	COLDWATER	25	—
7123	FARMINGTON PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.8%	57.8	B	MO	FARMINGTON	90	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7124	MOUNTAIN VIEW CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	57.8	D	PA	SCRANTON	180	—
7125	Joseph Eddie Ballard Western Kentucky Veterans Cen	0.8%	57.8	C	KY	Hanson	156	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
7126	Baton Rouge Health Care Center	0.8%	57.8	C	LA	BATON ROUGE	145	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
7127	Twin Lakes Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.8%	57.8	D	VA	SOUTH HILL	140	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7128	Lyon Specialty Care	0.8%	57.8	A	IA	Rock Rapids	45	CARE INITIATIVES
7129	LOCH HAVEN	0.8%	57.8	C	MO	MACON	100	—
7130	SUMMIT AT BLUE MOUNTAIN NURSING & REHAB CTR, THE	0.8%	57.8	B	PA	LEHIGHTON	91	—
7131	WEBCO MANOR	0.8%	57.8	B	MO	MARSHFIELD	90	—
7132	FIRST COMMUNITY VILLAGE HEALTHCARE CTR	0.8%	57.8	C	OH	COLUMBUS	47	NATIONAL CHURCH RESIDENCES HEALTH CARE
7133	Elmbrook of Atoka	0.8%	57.8	D	OK	ATOKA	96	—
7134	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF COLUMBUS NURSING CENTER - WEST	0.8%	57.8	A	GA	COLUMBUS	166	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
7135	Arizona State Veteran Home-Phx	0.8%	57.7	C	AZ	PHOENIX	200	—
7136	ARKANSAS CITY PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.8%	57.7	B	KS	ARKANSAS CITY	60	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7137	LUTHERAN LIFE VILLAGES	0.8%	57.7	B	IN	KENDALLVILLE	99	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7138	Hamilton Health Services	0.8%	57.7	B	WI	Two Rivers	125	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7139	WI Veterans Hm Ainsworth Hall	0.8%	57.7	A	WI	King	198	STATE OF WISCONSIN
7140	SEVIERVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	57.7	B	TN	SEVIERVILLE	98	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
7141	ST JOHN'S LUTHERAN HOME	0.8%	57.7	A	MT	BILLINGS	186	—
7142	FAIR OAKS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.8%	57.7	B	IL	CRYSTAL LAKE	51	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
7143	GOTTLIEB MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.8%	57.7	A	IL	MELROSE PARK	32	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7144	VILLAGE ON THE ISLE	0.8%	57.7	A	FL	VENICE	48	—
7145	LITTLEFORK CARE CENTER	0.8%	57.7	C	MN	LITTLEFORK	42	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7146	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ELLSWORTH VILLAGE	0.8%	57.7	F	KS	ELLSWORTH	43	SANFORD
7147	ST ELIZABETH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.8%	57.7	C	IN	DELPHI	64	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7148	JUDSON CARE CENTER, INC	0.8%	57.7	D	OH	CINCINNATI	99	—
7149	HEBREW HOME FOR THE AGED AT RIVERDALE	0.8%	57.7	C	NY	RIVERDALE	843	—
7150	CHILDRENS HC ORG NO CA SARATOGA PEDIATRIC SUBACUTE	0.8%	57.7	A	CA	SARATOGA	37	INNOVATIONS HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC

Showing 7,101–7,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.