Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,151–7,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7151	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF HARLI	0.8%	57.7	B	TX	HARLINGEN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7152	TOPEKA PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	0.8%	57.7	B	KS	TOPEKA	68	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
7153	JNH-JEFFERSON INN	0.8%	57.7	A	MS	WHITFIELD	90	—
7154	WEST ANAHEIM MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.8%	57.7	A	CA	ANAHEIM	22	PRIME HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
7155	HARDIN COUNTY NH	0.8%	57.7	B	TN	SAVANNAH	73	—
7156	LAKEWOOD CARE CENTER	0.8%	57.7	A	MN	BAUDETTE	32	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
7157	MILL POND HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	57.5	C	IN	GREENCASTLE	68	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
7158	Bronte Health and Rehab Center	0.7%	57.5	A	TX	Bronte	0	—
7159	ALLIED SERVICES TRANSITIONAL REHAB UNIT	0.7%	57.5	A	PA	SCRANTON	51	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
7160	Belgrade Nursing Home	0.7%	57.5	A	MN	BELGRADE	34	—
7161	BETHANY SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	57.5	A	MA	FRAMINGHAM	169	ALLIANCE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7162	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE AT STERLING SUITES	0.7%	57.5	D	OH	ZANESVILLE	26	—
7163	SONSHINE MANOR	0.7%	57.5	C	MO	REPUBLIC	69	—
7164	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HOWARD LAKE	0.7%	57.5	A	MN	HOWARD LAKE	32	SANFORD
7165	SUNSHINE HEALTH CARE, INC	0.7%	57.5	A	MS	PONTOTOC	60	—
7166	QUINCY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	0.7%	57.5	F	MA	QUINCY	126	—
7167	PLAINVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.7%	57.5	C	TX	PLAINVIEW	0	—
7168	WARM BEACH HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.5	C	WA	STANWOOD	59	—
7169	MAJESTIC CARE OF MCCORDSVILLE	0.7%	57.5	B	IN	MCCORDSVILLE	48	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7170	GROVE MANOR NURSING HOME, INC	0.7%	57.5	F	CT	WATERBURY	60	—
7171	SEAPORT VILLAGE HEALTHCARE	0.7%	57.5	C	ME	ELLSWORTH	61	—
7172	Michigan Masonic Home	0.7%	57.5	B	MI	Alma	204	—
7173	WESLEY HOMES DES MOINES HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	57.5	C	WA	DES MOINES	148	—
7174	NEW COMMUNITY EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.7%	57.5	D	NJ	NEWARK	180	—
7175	COMMUNITY CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.7%	57.5	F	FL	PLANT CITY	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7176	Holy Family Manor	0.7%	57.5	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	208	—
7177	GREENWOOD MEADOWS	0.7%	57.5	B	IN	GREENWOOD	169	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7178	Powell Valley Care Center	0.7%	57.5	A	WY	Powell	100	—
7179	TEKAKWITHA LIVING CENTER	0.7%	57.5	B	SD	SISSETON	40	COTEAU DES PRAIRIES HOSPITAL
7180	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT INDIAN RIVER ESTATES	0.7%	57.4	A	FL	VERO BEACH	20	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7181	Terraces of Boise, The	0.7%	57.4	C	ID	Boise	48	HUMANGOOD
7182	WILLIAMSTOWN COMMONS NURSING & REHAB	0.7%	57.4	B	MA	WILLIAMSTOWN	180	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
7183	AMERICAN VILLAGE	0.7%	57.4	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	150	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7184	Valle Verde Health Facility	0.7%	57.4	A	CA	Santa Barbara	80	HUMANGOOD
7185	CUSTER CARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.7%	57.4	A	SD	CUSTER	43	—
7186	THE SPRINGS	0.7%	57.4	D	TX	HUGHES SPRINGS	60	—
7187	Peconic Bay Skilled Nursing Facility	0.7%	57.4	—	NY	Riverhead	60	—
7188	MAJESTIC CARE OF NORTH VERNON	0.7%	57.4	B	IN	NORTH VERNON	120	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7189	THE FOUNTAINS AT WASHINGTON HOUSE	0.7%	57.4	F	VA	ALEXANDRIA	68	—
7190	Thomas Rest Haven	0.7%	57.4	A	IA	Coon Rapids	57	—
7191	COVERED BRIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	57.4	C	IN	SEYMOUR	78	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
7192	Auburn Manor	0.7%	57.4	A	MN	CHASKA	60	ILLUMINUS INC
7193	East Troy Manor	0.7%	57.4	C	WI	EAST TROY	50	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
7194	MEDICALODGES COFFEYVILLE	0.7%	57.4	C	KS	COFFEYVILLE	40	—
7195	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY DEUEL COUNTY	0.7%	57.4	F	SD	CLEAR LAKE	43	—
7196	KINDRED HOSPITAL - LAS VEGAS (FLAMINGO) - SNF/DP	0.7%	57.4	—	NV	LAS VEGAS	108	—
7197	ALPINE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	57.4	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	57	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7198	RANDOLPH NURSING HOME	0.7%	57.4	C	IN	WINCHESTER	94	—
7199	Good Samaritan Society - International Falls	0.7%	57.4	C	MN	INTERNATIONAL FALLS	54	SANFORD
7200	Tiffany Square	0.7%	57.4	A	NE	Grand Island	103	VETTER SENIOR LIVING

Showing 7,151–7,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.