Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,201–7,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7201	JEANNE JUGAN RESIDENCE	0.7%	57.4	D	NY	BRONX	30	—
7202	Kimball County Manor	0.7%	57.4	B	NE	Kimball	49	—
7203	CHESTERFIELDS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.4	D	CT	CHESTER	60	—
7204	COLER REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.2	B	NY	ROOSEVELT ISLAND	815	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
7205	Park View Health Center	0.7%	57.2	A	WI	Oshkosh	168	COUNTY OF WINNEBAGO
7206	CARLETON HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	57.2	D	PA	WELLSBORO	26	—
7207	ST CRISPIN LIVING COMMUNITY	0.7%	57.2	B	MN	RED WING	64	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7208	GLENCLIFF HOME FOR THE ELDERLY	0.7%	57.2	A	NH	GLENCLIFF	130	—
7209	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - SPECIALTY CARE COMMUNITY	0.7%	57.2	C	MN	ROBBINSDALE	96	SANFORD
7210	RECUPERATIVE SERVICES UNIT-HEBREW REHAB CENTER	0.7%	57.2	B	MA	BOSTON	50	HEBREW SENIORLIFE INC
7211	GEORGE REGIONAL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.7%	57.2	A	MS	LUCEDALE	59	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7212	HIGH HOPE CARE CENTER OF BRENHAM	0.7%	57.2	C	TX	BRENHAM	0	—
7213	CLARK REHABILITATION AND SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.7%	57.2	B	IN	CLARKSVILLE	83	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7214	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE NORTH	0.7%	57.2	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	148	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7215	BAPTIST VILLAGE OF OWASSO	0.7%	57.2	D	OK	OWASSO	120	BAPTIST VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OF OKLAHOMA INC
7216	NORTHERN LAKES NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	57.2	C	IN	ANGOLA	99	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7217	Good Samaritan - Saint Ansgar	0.7%	57.2	B	IA	Saint Ansgar	42	SANFORD
7218	TAYLOR COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	57.2	B	GA	BUTLER	78	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7219	THE MEDICAL RESORT AT WILLOWBROOK	0.7%	57.2	C	TX	HOUSTON	104	—
7220	MERCY HARVARD HOSPITAL CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.2	A	IL	HARVARD	34	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
7221	CHAPMAN GLOBAL MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.7%	57.2	A	CA	ORANGE	27	KPC HEALTHCARE INC
7222	BAPTIST HOMES OF SHELBINA	0.7%	57.2	C	MO	SHELBINA	120	—
7223	ROSEGATE VILLAGE	0.7%	57.2	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	150	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7224	GRACE VILLAGE HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.7%	57.2	B	IN	WINONA LAKE	71	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
7225	SAINT JOHN XXIII HOME	0.7%	57.2	B	PA	HERMITAGE	90	—
7226	CONTINUING CARE AT SEABROOK	0.7%	57.2	A	NJ	TINTON FALLS	86	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
7227	EAST POINT HEALTH AND REHAB	0.7%	57.2	D	AR	STAR CITY	87	—
7228	Wellspring Lutheran Services	0.7%	57.1	B	MI	Frankenmuth	83	—
7229	CLARENCE CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.1	B	MO	CLARENCE	60	—
7230	CUMBERLAND POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	57.1	D	IN	WEST LAFAYETTE	71	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7231	THE ARBORS	0.7%	57.1	D	TX	AMARILLO	60	—
7232	CHARLESTOWN PLACE AT NEW ALBANY	0.7%	57.1	C	IN	NEW ALBANY	158	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7233	SOUTHPARK MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	0.7%	57.1	B	TX	AUSTIN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7234	WATKINS-LOGAN-GARRISON TEXAS STATE VETERAN'S HOME	0.7%	57.1	B	TX	TYLER	100	—
7235	St. Joseph Manor	0.7%	57.1	C	TX	Bryan	0	BURLESON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7236	Chimney Rock Villa	0.7%	57.1	C	NE	Bayard	49	—
7237	PRAIRIE HOUSE LIVING CENTER	0.7%	57.1	C	TX	PLAINVIEW	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
7238	ELDERWOOD AT RIVERSIDE	0.7%	57.1	F	RI	RIVERSIDE	57	—
7239	GLENDIVE MEDICAL CENTER N H	0.7%	57.1	A	MT	GLENDIVE	36	BILLINGS CLINIC
7240	RAYDIANT HEALTH CARE OF BRANDON	0.7%	57.1	F	FL	BRANDON	120	—
7241	TRINITY TERRACES	0.7%	57.1	D	CT	WATERTOWN	46	—
7242	MIRABELLA PORTLAND	0.7%	57.1	A	OR	PORTLAND	44	—
7243	NORTH ADAMS COMMONS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTE	0.7%	57.1	A	MA	NORTH ADAMS	119	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
7244	HIGH SHOALS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	57.1	A	GA	BISHOP	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7245	LAFAYETTE MANOR	0.7%	57.1	B	WI	DARLINGTON	50	—
7246	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MARY JANE BROWN	0.7%	57.1	C	MN	LUVERNE	51	SANFORD
7247	SOUTH LYON MEDICAL CENTER	0.7%	57.1	A	NV	YERINGTON	49	—
7248	EDDY HERITAGE HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.7%	57.1	D	NY	TROY	120	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7249	ANEW HEALTHCARE AND REHAB HORTON	0.7%	57.1	B	KS	HORTON	30	—
7250	Highland Ridge Care Center, LLC	0.7%	57.1	A	IA	Williamsburg	59	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 7,201–7,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.