Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,251–7,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7251	WILL-O-BELL	0.7%	57.1	B	TX	BARTLETT	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7252	OAK VIEW HOME, INC	0.7%	57.1	B	GA	WAVERLY HALL	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7253	POMPERAUG WOODS HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	57.1	B	CT	SOUTHBURY	37	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7254	TUPELO COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.7%	57.1	B	MS	TUPELO	120	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7255	WHITTIER HOSPITAL MEDICAL CTR D/P SNF	0.7%	57.1	A	CA	WHITTIER	22	—
7256	Rotary Senior Living	0.7%	57.1	C	IA	Eagle Grove	46	—
7257	ST. Matthews Care and Rehab Center, LLC	0.7%	56.9	C	KY	Louisville	125	—
7258	SUMMERSVILLE REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.7%	56.9	—	WV	SUMMERSVILLE	52	—
7259	BEAVER COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.9	C	OK	BEAVER	62	—
7260	COUNTRY CLUB CARE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.9	B	OK	DUNCAN	104	—
7261	FRANCISCAN VILLAGE	0.7%	56.9	C	IL	LEMONT	127	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
7262	AVALON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.9	B	GA	NEWNAN	90	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7263	BRIDGEWATER NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.9	C	MA	BRIDGEWATER	43	—
7264	SHERBROOKE VILLAGE	0.7%	56.9	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	149	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
7265	Houston Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.7%	56.9	B	TX	Houston	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7266	QUEEN OF PEACE RESIDENCE	0.7%	56.9	A	NY	QUEENS VILLAGE	53	—
7267	SINGING RIVER SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	56.9	D	MS	PASCAGOULA	54	SINGING RIVER HEALTH SYSTEM
7268	SKYLINE NURSING CENTER	0.7%	56.9	C	TX	DALLAS	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7269	Swift Creek Health Center	0.7%	56.9	B	NC	CARY	3	—
7270	OAK WOODS HOME FOR THE ELDERLY	0.7%	56.9	B	LA	MER ROUGE	119	—
7271	EASTRIDGE	0.7%	56.9	C	KS	CENTRALIA	28	—
7272	Mid-Nebraska Lutheran Home	0.7%	56.9	C	NE	Newman Grove	45	—
7273	COVENANT SHORES HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	56.9	B	WA	MERCER ISLAND	43	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7274	Iron County Medical Care Facility	0.7%	56.9	A	MI	Crystal Falls	200	—
7275	FOUR COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.9	B	GA	RICHLAND	85	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7276	Memorial Healthcare Center	0.7%	56.9	A	MI	Owosso	39	—
7277	JAMES T CHAMPION	0.7%	56.9	A	MS	MERIDIAN	70	—
7278	WINDSOR QUAIL VALLEY POST-ACUTE HEALTHCARE	0.7%	56.9	C	TX	MISSOURI CITY	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7279	VILLAGES AT OAK RIDGE, THE	0.7%	56.9	C	IN	WASHINGTON	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
7280	ELGIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	56.8	D	TX	ELGIN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7281	BERTHA D GARTEN KETCHAM MEMORIAL CENTER	0.7%	56.8	A	IN	ODON	84	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7282	HEARTHSTONE, THE	0.7%	56.8	C	WA	SEATTLE	40	—
7283	UNIVERSITY PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.7%	56.8	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	104	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7284	SALEMHAVEN	0.7%	56.8	B	NH	SALEM	110	COVENANT HEALTH
7285	Living Center West	0.7%	56.8	B	IA	Cedar Rapids	94	ST LUKE S HEALTHCARE
7286	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at Westfield, LLC	0.7%	56.8	C	NY	WESTFIELD	120	—
7287	Davis Health and Wellness Center at Cambridge Vill	0.7%	56.8	B	NC	Wilmington	20	UNIDINE CORPORATION
7288	Manly Specialty Care	0.7%	56.8	B	IA	Manly	44	CARE INITIATIVES
7289	Jennie B Richmond Chaffee Nursing Home Company Inc	0.7%	56.8	A	NY	SPRINGVILLE	80	—
7290	TIMBERLAKE CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.8	D	MO	KANSAS CITY	122	—
7291	WOODBRIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	56.8	B	IN	LOGANSPORT	69	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
7292	MCCULLOUGH HALL NURSING CENTER INC	0.7%	56.8	D	TX	SAN ANTONIO	51	—
7293	Northcrest Specialty Care	0.7%	56.8	C	IA	Waterloo	94	CARE INITIATIVES
7294	WILSON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.8	B	MD	GAITHERSBURG	285	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
7295	Edgebrook Care Center	0.7%	56.8	A	MN	EDGERTON	54	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
7296	LASALLE NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.8	A	LA	JENA	133	HOSPITAL SERVICE DISTRICT 2 OF LASALLE PARISH
7297	Avera Eureka Health Care Center	0.7%	56.8	A	SD	EUREKA	56	AVERA HEALTH
7298	MISSION POINT NSG & PHY REHAB CTR OF ISHPEMING	0.7%	56.8	C	MI	ISHPEMING	63	—
7299	Barron Center	0.7%	56.8	A	ME	PORTLAND	219	—
7300	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY -- LOVELAND VILLAGE	0.7%	56.8	C	CO	LOVELAND	104	SANFORD

Showing 7,251–7,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.