Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,301–7,350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7301	Morrisons Cove Home	0.7%	56.7	A	PA	MARTINSBURG	114	—
7302	UNITED HELPERS CANTON NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.7	A	NY	CANTON	160	UNITED HELPERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
7303	Ponderosa Villa	0.7%	56.7	B	NE	Crawford	35	CASCADES HEALTHCARE LLC
7304	ST JOSEPH'S HOME FOR ELDERLY	0.7%	56.7	F	NJ	TOTOWA	41	—
7305	TOWERS NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.7	C	TX	SMITHVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7306	WEST RIVER HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	56.7	D	IN	EVANSVILLE	61	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
7307	VIVIANT HEALTHCARE OF SHELBYVILLE	0.7%	56.7	B	TN	SHELBYVILLE	130	—
7308	GUAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY	0.7%	56.7	A	GU	BARRIGADA	40	—
7309	DAWSON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.7	C	GA	DAWSON	60	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7310	SISKIN SUBACUTE WEST	0.7%	56.7	B	TN	CHATTANOOGA	108	—
7311	Sibley Specialty Care	0.7%	56.7	B	IA	Sibley	46	CARE INITIATIVES
7312	DUPAGE CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.7	B	IL	WHEATON	366	SYMBRIA REHAB INC
7313	WALTER B CROOK NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	56.7	A	MS	RULEVILLE	60	—
7314	ST LUKE RESIDENTIAL HEALTH CARE FACILITY INC	0.7%	56.7	C	NY	OSWEGO	200	—
7315	PLEASANT RIDGE MANOR EAST/WEST	0.7%	56.7	B	PA	GIRARD	300	—
7316	WINGATE AT NEEDHAM	0.7%	56.7	F	MA	NEEDHAM	142	—
7317	Simpson Memorial Home	0.7%	56.6	A	IA	West Liberty	55	—
7318	CENTURY VILLA HEALTH CARE	0.7%	56.6	B	IN	GREENTOWN	84	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
7319	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - MAPLEWOOD	0.7%	56.6	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	71	SANFORD
7320	HEALTH CARE CTR AT THE FORUM AT RANCHO SAN ANTONIO	0.7%	56.6	B	CA	CUPERTINO	48	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7321	Sumner Place	0.7%	56.6	A	NE	Lincoln	104	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7322	AVERA OAHE MANOR	0.7%	56.6	B	SD	GETTYSBURG	53	—
7323	LINCOLN HILLS OF NEW ALBANY	0.7%	56.6	C	IN	NEW ALBANY	156	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
7324	Highland Park Care Center	0.7%	56.6	B	TX	Houston	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7325	LINN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.6	C	RI	EAST PROVIDENCE	84	—
7326	VILLA HEALTH CARE EAST	0.7%	56.6	A	IL	SHERMAN	109	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
7327	WELLBROOKE OF SOUTH BEND	0.7%	56.6	D	IN	SOUTH BEND	70	TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7328	GOOD SAMARITAN HOME	0.7%	56.6	B	IL	QUINCY	203	—
7329	PHILLIPS MANOR NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.6	B	MA	LYNN	29	—
7330	DEWITT NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.6	B	AR	DE WITT	60	—
7331	ROCKPORT NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	56.6	B	TX	ROCKPORT	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7332	Whispering Pines Lodge	0.7%	56.6	D	TX	Longview	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7333	OZARK RIVERVIEW MANOR	0.7%	56.6	C	MO	OZARK	90	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
7334	AVERA SUNRISE MANOR	0.7%	56.6	A	MN	TYLER	30	AVERA HEALTH
7335	CARLYLE PLACE	0.7%	56.6	A	GA	MACON	40	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
7336	MISSION CONVALESCENT HOME	0.7%	56.6	B	TN	JACKSON	57	—
7337	Bayside Village	0.7%	56.6	C	MI	L' Anse	59	BARAGA COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7338	THE ARMY RESIDENCE COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.5	A	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	THE ARMY RETIREMENT RESIDENCE FOUNDATIONSAN ANTONIO
7339	GRISWOLD REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.5	B	IA	GRISWOLD	42	—
7340	MUSCOGEE (CREEK) NATION SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.7%	56.5	D	OK	OKMULGEE	8	—
7341	BROWNSBURG MEADOWS	0.7%	56.5	B	IN	BROWNSBURG	147	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7342	HARTWELL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.7%	56.5	B	GA	HARTWELL	92	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7343	LUTHERAN HOME FOR THE AGED	0.7%	56.5	D	IL	ARLINGTON HTS	354	SELECT REHABILITATION LLC
7344	COLUSA MEDICAL CENTER - SNF	0.7%	56.5	A	CA	COLUSA	6	—
7345	COMMUNITY AT ROCKHILL, THE	0.7%	56.5	A	PA	SELLERSVILLE	90	GRACE INSPIRED MINISTRIES
7346	Whitestone a Masonic and Eastern Star Community	0.7%	56.5	B	NC	Greensboro	60	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7347	Mcmahon-Tomlinson Nursing Center	0.7%	56.5	C	OK	Lawton	142	COMANCHE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7348	CHAPLINWOOD NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.5	C	GA	MILLEDGEVILLE	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7349	COON MEMORIAL HOME	0.7%	56.5	—	TX	DALHART	67	—
7350	COMMUNITIES AT INDIAN HAVEN,	0.7%	56.5	B	PA	INDIANA	108	—

Showing 7,301–7,350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.