Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,351–7,400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7351	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY -- FORT COLLINS VILLAGE	0.7%	56.5	B	CO	FORT COLLINS	64	SANFORD
7352	Inn at Quail Haven Village	0.7%	56.5	A	NC	Pinehurst	35	—
7353	Colonial Acres of Humboldt	0.7%	56.5	A	NE	Humboldt	49	—
7354	HOMESTEAD NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF COLLINSVIL	0.7%	56.5	C	TX	COLLINSVILLE	65	—
7355	COUNTRYSIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.5	D	IA	SIOUX CITY	101	—
7356	HOEGER HOUSE	0.7%	56.5	D	KS	OLATHE	34	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
7357	GRAHAM HOSPITAL	0.7%	56.5	A	IL	CANTON	35	—
7358	STONERIDGE POPLAR RUN	0.7%	56.5	A	PA	MYERSTOWN	60	—
7359	Edgewood Place at the Village at Brookwood	0.7%	56.5	A	NC	Burlington	51	—
7360	Good Samaritan Society - Bethany	0.7%	56.3	B	MN	BRAINERD	79	SANFORD
7361	MADISON MEDICAL CENTER	0.7%	56.3	—	MO	FREDERICKTOWN	116	—
7362	Bluebonnet Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.7%	56.3	D	TX	Karnes City	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7363	Hallmar Village	0.7%	56.3	C	IA	CEDAR RAPIDS	55	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
7364	BONNIE BLUEJACKET MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.3	—	WY	BASIN	37	—
7365	Miners Colfax Medical Center	0.7%	56.3	A	NM	Raton	37	—
7366	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - VALLEY VISTA	0.7%	56.3	A	KS	WAMEGO	45	SANFORD
7367	Sunset Manor Avera Health	0.7%	56.3	A	SD	IRENE	58	SUNSET MANOR INC
7368	SPRENGER HEALTH CARE OF MASSILLON SNF	0.7%	56.3	F	OH	MASSILLON	28	—
7369	Aspire of Sutherland	0.7%	56.3	F	IA	Sutherland	27	—
7370	Madonna Manor Nursing Home	0.7%	56.3	C	MA	NORTH ATTLEBORO	129	—
7371	BELMONT HEALTH & REHABILITATION, THE	0.7%	56.3	B	IN	COLUMBUS	180	COLUMBUS REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7372	REGINA SENIOR LIVING	0.7%	56.3	B	MN	HASTINGS	57	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7373	HORIZONS CARE CENTER	0.7%	56.3	C	CO	ECKERT	45	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
7374	WATER'S EDGE	0.7%	56.3	A	WI	HAYWARD	50	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
7375	LANDMARK OF RICHTON PARK REHAB & NSG CTR	0.7%	56.3	D	IL	RICHTON PARK	294	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
7376	Clark Retirement Community	0.7%	56.3	C	MI	Grand Rapids	39	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
7377	KNOX COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	0.7%	56.3	A	MO	EDINA	60	—
7378	SPRING MILL HEALTH CAMPUS	0.7%	56.3	C	IN	MERRILLVILLE	64	MAJOR HOSPITAL
7379	GASCONADE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.7%	56.3	B	MO	OWENSVILLE	79	POWERBACK REHABILITATION LLC
7380	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SIOUX FALLS VILLAGE	0.6%	56.1	D	SD	SIOUX FALLS	177	SANFORD
7381	MERCYHEALTH JAVON BEA HOSPITAL -SNF	0.6%	56.1	F	IL	ROCKFORD	17	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
7382	Atherton Baptist Home	0.6%	56.1	A	CA	ALHAMBRA	113	—
7383	CENTERBURG RESPIRATORY & SPECIALTY REHAB CTR	0.6%	56.1	B	OH	CENTERBURG	35	—
7384	FOUR SEASONS HEALTH CARE INC	0.6%	56.1	B	ND	FORMAN	33	—
7385	Linden Court	0.6%	56.1	C	NE	North Platte	135	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7386	Hubbard Care Center	0.6%	56.1	B	IA	Hubbard	60	—
7387	ST JOHNS LUTHERAN HOME	0.6%	56.1	B	MN	ALBERT LEA	45	—
7388	SALEM CROSSING	0.6%	56.1	A	IN	SALEM	92	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7389	HOLLENBECK PALMS	0.6%	56.1	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	106	—
7390	Archway Transitional Care Center	0.6%	56.1	B	GA	MACON	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7391	STERLING MANOR	0.6%	56.1	C	NJ	MAPLE SHADE	124	—
7392	QUINNIPIAC VALLEY CENTER	0.6%	56.1	F	CT	WALLINGFORD	180	—
7393	MUNCY PLACE	0.6%	56.1	B	PA	MUNCY	138	UPMC
7394	CLAREWOOD HOUSE EXTENDED CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	A	TX	HOUSTON	60	—
7395	THE COVINGTON CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	D	CA	ALISO VIEJO	24	—
7396	CITIZENS CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	B	MD	HAVRE DE GRACE	184	—
7397	MCLEAN COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.6%	56.1	A	IL	NORMAL	148	—
7398	The Village	0.6%	56.1	A	IA	Indianola	54	WESLEYLIFE
7399	OAKWOOD HEALTH CAMPUS	0.6%	56.1	C	IN	TELL CITY	98	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
7400	EVENTIDE HEARTLAND	0.6%	56.1	B	ND	DEVILS LAKE	78	EVENTIDE

Showing 7,351–7,400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.