Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

7,401–7,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7401	Spartanburg Hospital for Restorative Care SNF	0.6%	56.1	A	SC	Spartanburg	25	SPARTANBURG REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT INC
7402	SAINT MARY HOME	0.6%	56.1	B	CT	WEST HARTFORD	256	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
7403	DEER'S HEAD CENTER	0.6%	56.1	A	MD	SALISBURY	80	STATE OF MARYLAND CENTRAL PAYROLL BUREAU
7404	FAYETTE COUNTY HOSPITAL	0.6%	56.1	A	IL	VANDALIA	63	—
7405	York General Hearthstone	0.6%	56.1	B	NE	York	127	YORK GENERAL HOSPITAL
7406	GOOD SAMARITAN LIVING CENTER	0.6%	56.1	D	LA	FRANKLINTON	84	—
7407	Creekside	0.6%	56.1	B	IA	Grundy Center	55	WESTERN HOME SERVICES INC
7408	RAMSEY COUNTY CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	F	MN	MAPLEWOOD	164	—
7409	PARKVIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	B	MN	WELLS	30	—
7410	BOOKER REST HOME	0.6%	56.1	—	WA	DAYTON	34	—
7411	LACOBA HOMES INC	0.6%	56.1	B	MO	MONETT	79	—
7412	Avera Mother Joseph Manor Retirement Community	0.6%	56.1	B	SD	ABERDEEN	81	AVERA HEALTH
7413	MUNDAY NURSING CENTER	0.6%	56.1	A	TX	MUNDAY	0	KNOX COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7414	REHABILITATION CENTER AT BRETHREN VILLAGE LLC	0.6%	56.1	C	PA	LANCASTER	20	UPMC
7415	GLADES HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.1	A	FL	PAHOKEE	120	—
7416	Good Samaritan Society - Mountain Lake	0.6%	56.0	A	MN	MOUNTAIN LAKE	48	SANFORD
7417	Helen Newberry Joy HLTCU Golden Leaves Living Cent	0.6%	56.0	B	MI	Newberry	39	—
7418	Roosevelt Care Center At Old Bridge	0.6%	56.0	A	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	180	MIDDLESEX COUNTY IMPROVEMENT AUTHORITY
7419	WOODMONT HEALTH CAMPUS	0.6%	56.0	C	IN	BOONVILLE	60	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
7420	BRANDEL HEALTH AND REHAB	0.6%	56.0	A	IL	NORTHBROOK	102	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7421	MAPLE LAWN SENIOR CARE	0.6%	56.0	A	MN	FULDA	46	—
7422	West Ridge Specialty Care	0.6%	56.0	B	IA	Knoxville	78	CARE INITIATIVES
7423	Saint Anne Extended Healthcare	0.6%	56.0	B	MN	WINONA	103	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
7424	SHIRKEY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	56.0	B	MO	RICHMOND	197	—
7425	SUNSET HOME	0.6%	56.0	C	IL	QUINCY	132	—
7426	Eventide Crete	0.6%	56.0	B	NE	Crete	38	EVENTIDE
7427	MOOSEHAVEN	0.6%	56.0	B	FL	ORANGE PARK	72	—
7428	RURAL HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.0	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	50	—
7429	COMMUNITY SPRINGS HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.6%	56.0	C	MO	EL DORADO SPRINGS	120	—
7430	Laurel Creek Health Center	0.6%	56.0	B	CA	Fairfield	60	—
7431	PROMEDICA SKILLED NURSING & REHAB SYLVANIA	0.6%	56.0	D	OH	SYLVANIA	120	—
7432	Redlands Comm Hosp D/p Snf	0.6%	56.0	A	CA	Redlands	16	REDLANDS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
7433	BETHLEN HM OF THE HUNGARIAN RF OF AMERICA	0.6%	56.0	C	PA	LIGONIER	76	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
7434	WILLOW CROSSING HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	56.0	B	IN	COLUMBUS	112	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7435	DENTON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.6%	56.0	B	TX	DENTON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7436	AWE KUALAWAACHE CARE CENTER	0.6%	56.0	B	MT	CROW AGENCY	40	—
7437	THE MONTEVISTA AT CORONADO	0.6%	56.0	C	TX	EL PASO	75	—
7438	Bethel Home	0.6%	56.0	B	WI	Oshkosh	100	—
7439	UNIVERSITY MANOR HEALTH & REHA	0.6%	56.0	B	OH	CLEVELAND	149	BNV DYNASTY LLC
7440	MADISON MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	56.0	A	MO	FREDERICKTOWN	99	—
7441	TWIN PINES ADULT CARE CENTER	0.6%	55.8	C	MO	KIRKSVILLE	120	—
7442	Fonda Specialty Care	0.6%	55.8	A	IA	Fonda	46	CARE INITIATIVES
7443	VILLAGE ON THE GREEN	0.6%	55.8	D	FL	LONGWOOD	60	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7444	ST LUKE COMMUNITY NURSING HOME	0.6%	55.8	A	MT	RONAN	75	—
7445	Bear Lake Memorial Skilled Nursing Facility	0.6%	55.8	A	ID	Montpelier	36	BEAR LAKE COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7446	SOLIVITA OF OAK PAVILION	0.6%	55.8	C	OH	CINCINNATI	130	—
7447	PIONEER NURSING HOME	0.6%	55.8	C	OR	VALE	33	—
7448	MEDICALODGES PITTSBURG	0.6%	55.8	C	KS	PITTSBURG	45	—
7449	BROADMEAD	0.6%	55.8	A	MD	COCKEYSVILLE	70	—
7450	MILTON HOME, THE	0.6%	55.8	A	IN	SOUTH BEND	34	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 7,401–7,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.