Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,301–7,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7301	CALIFORNIA PARK POST ACUTE	0.1%	52.1	C	CA	CHICO	90	DG 2016 HOLDINGS TRUST DATED SEPTEMBER 14 2016
7302	The Orchards at Northwest	0.1%	52.1	B	MI	Detroit	154	MI OPCO HOLDCO LLC
7303	OAK TRACE	0.1%	52.1	C	IL	DOWNERS GROVE	104	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
7304	ABERJONA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	MA	WINCHESTER	123	BOSTON MASTER TENANT LLC
7305	REGENCY HERMISTON NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	OR	HERMISTON	105	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
7306	Laredo West Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	52.1	F	TX	Laredo	188	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7307	CANDLEWOOD HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	EAST CLEVELAND	116	EXTENDED OHIO LLC
7308	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF OREGON CITY	0.1%	52.1	B	OR	OREGON CITY	111	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
7309	ELDERWOOD AT CHEEKTOWAGA	0.1%	52.1	B	NY	CHEEKTOWAGA	172	—
7310	Lord Chamberlain Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	52.1	B	CT	STRATFORD	190	MARTIN SBRIGLIO 2009 TRUST
7311	ROSEWOOD GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	PA	BROOMALL	146	—
7312	Bainbridge Landing of Journey LLC	0.1%	52.1	D	GA	BAINBRIDGE	100	BARRES LLC
7313	PARKWOOD SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	MO	MARYLAND HEIGHTS	130	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7314	BARNEGAT REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	NJ	BARNEGAT	115	TWOMAGNETS LLC
7315	ANN PEARL NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	52.1	D	HI	KANEOHE	104	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
7316	PRAIRIE HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE	0.1%	52.1	A	SD	ABERDEEN	99	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
7317	NORTHEAST LA WAR VETERANS HOME	0.1%	52.1	A	LA	MONROE	8	STATE OF LA DEPT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
7318	ST CATHERINE'S C C OF FOSTORIA	0.1%	52.1	C	OH	FOSTORIA	56	HCF INC
7319	Ridgeway Manor Healthcare Center	0.1%	52.1	C	SC	Ridgeway	112	—
7320	MOHAWK MEADOWS	0.1%	52.1	F	NJ	LAFAYETTE	159	—
7321	Good Samaritan - Davenport	0.1%	52.1	D	IA	Davenport	119	SANFORD
7322	LAKE PARK OF MADISON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CE	0.1%	52.1	A	FL	MADISON	120	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
7323	TEMPLE PARK CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.1%	52.1	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	99	—
7324	ST ANDREWS	0.1%	52.1	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	59	CHARIS TR DTD 12 22 2016
7325	ASCENSION LIVING ALEXIAN VILLAGE TENNESSEE	0.1%	52.1	C	TN	SIGNAL MOUNTAIN	114	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
7326	Harmony Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	C	GA	FITZGERALD	167	STATESBORO HOLDCO LLC
7327	Bella Terra St George	0.1%	52.1	C	UT	St. George	149	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7328	Parkwood Village	0.1%	52.1	D	TX	BEDFORD	0	VILLAGE SENIOR CARE LLC
7329	RIVER VALLEY SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.1%	52.1	B	OK	CLINTON	100	BRIDGES ESOP INC
7330	BAY PATH AT DUXBURY NURSING & REHABILITATION CTR	0.1%	52.1	A	MA	DUXBURY	120	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7331	SPRINGS AT 3030 PARK, THE	0.1%	52.1	C	CT	BRIDGEPORT	23	—
7332	OUACHITA HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	LA	MONROE	167	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7333	Good Samaritan - Red Oak	0.1%	52.1	C	IA	Red Oak	53	SANFORD
7334	RIVER VIEW ON THE APPOMATTOX HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	VA	HOPEWELL	124	DJ PETRINE LLC
7335	ROBINSON TERRACE	0.1%	52.1	C	NY	STAMFORD	120	—
7336	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF CARRABELLE	0.1%	52.1	C	FL	CARRABELLE	74	—
7337	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - MUNCIE CARE CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	IN	MUNCIE	117	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7338	BRIDGEVIEW CENTER	0.1%	52.1	A	FL	ORMOND BEACH	139	LCE PARTNERS LLC
7339	Landmark of Oak Lawn Rehabilitation and Nursing Ce	0.1%	52.1	F	IL	OAK LAWN	143	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
7340	Arbor Lake Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	A	LA	FARMERVILLE	150	JOE KENNETH NEWTON JR QSST TRUST
7341	AHVA CARE OF WINFIELD	0.1%	52.1	C	IL	WINFIELD	138	AHVA SOUTHWEST HOLDCO LLC
7342	CROWELL NURSING CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	TX	CROWELL	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
7343	Cascades at Orchard Park	0.1%	52.1	C	UT	Orem	52	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7344	DIVINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT SHANE HILL	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	ROCKFORD	69	DHM OH THREE HOLDINGS LLC
7345	AURORA BRULE NURSING HOME INC	0.1%	52.1	D	SD	WHITE LAKE	44	CARING PROFESSIONALS INC
7346	ST MARY'S ALZHEIMER'S CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	OH	COLUMBIANA	90	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
7347	OAKS ON PARKWOOD SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	52.1	A	AL	BESSEMER	130	NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES INC
7348	Brookdale Lakeway SNF	0.1%	52.1	C	TX	Lakeway	98	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
7349	CASA MORA REHABILITATION AND EXTENDED CARE	0.1%	52.1	F	FL	BRADENTON	240	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
7350	HERITAGE POINTE OF WARREN	0.1%	52.1	C	IN	WARREN	119	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL

Showing 7,301–7,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.