Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,351–7,400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7351	CASTLE PINES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	52.1	B	TX	LUFKIN	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7352	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NRSG AT GUILDERLAND	0.1%	52.1	D	NY	ALTAMONT	127	STRAUSS VENTURES LLC
7353	RIVER RUN HEALTHCARE OF PORTSMOUTH	0.1%	52.1	A	OH	PORTSMOUTH	25	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
7354	TOWNVIEW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	52.1	B	PA	CANONSBURG	118	MAVADO MANAGEMENT LLC
7355	Jefferson Healthcare Center	0.1%	52.1	A	LA	Jefferson	222	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
7356	Castro County Nursing & Rehabilitation	0.1%	52.1	D	TX	Dimmitt	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7357	Kerens Care Center	0.1%	52.1	D	TX	Kerens	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7358	THE CHESAPEAKE	0.1%	52.1	B	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	52	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
7359	JONES CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.1%	52.1	A	CA	SAN LEANDRO	25	HYCARE INC
7360	TENNOVA LAFOLLETTE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	52.1	C	TN	LAFOLLETTE	98	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7361	BANGS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	52.1	A	TX	BANGS	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7362	ORCHARDS SKILLED NURSING	0.1%	50.7	C	CA	RANCHO MISSION VIEJO	49	SPIEKER CLC LLC
7363	THE LAURELS OF CHAGRIN FALLS	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	CHAGRIN FALLS	82	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
7364	PULASKI HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	IN	WINAMAC	58	—
7365	MAGNOLIA PLACE HEALTH CARE	0.1%	50.7	C	TX	LIBERTY	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7366	MORROW MANOR NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	CHESTERVILLE	46	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
7367	SPRINGS AT BOCA CIEGA BAY	0.1%	50.7	B	FL	SOUTH PASADENA	109	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
7368	WEST DELRAY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	FL	DELRAY BEACH	120	PALM BEACH HEALTH PARTNERS LLC
7369	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - TERRACE CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	IN	LA PORTE	176	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7370	FIRST SHAMROCK CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	OK	KINGFISHER	55	BGM ESTATE LLC
7371	Windsor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center of Mcall	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	Mcallen	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7372	SUNNYVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	PA	BUTLER	220	—
7373	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING ADVANCE	0.1%	50.7	C	MO	ADVANCE	55	CHP SNFCO LLC
7374	PHOENIX OF MAPLE HEIGHTS	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	MAPLE HEIGHTS	99	PHOENIX HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7375	Maverick Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	50.7	C	TX	Eagle Pass	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7376	Liberty Healthcare Services of Golden Years Nursin	0.1%	50.7	A	NC	Falcon	58	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7377	ARLINGTON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	WA	ARLINGTON	76	—
7378	LAUREL HILL NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	OR	GRANTS PASS	44	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
7379	NYACK RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	VALLEY COTTAGE	160	—
7380	Heritage Health Services	0.1%	50.7	C	WI	Port Washington	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7381	BRIDGEPOINT SUBACUTE AND REHAB CAPITOL HILL	0.1%	50.7	C	DC	WASHINGTON	117	BRIDGEPOINT HEALTHCARE LLC
7382	Avista Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	50.7	B	MI	Saginaw	96	—
7383	SUMMIT HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	TAYLOR	70	JEJ ASSETS LP
7384	SUMMIT CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	93	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7385	BRIARCLIFF HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	50.7	F	TX	TYLER	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7386	ALDEN TERRACE OF MCHENRY REHAB	0.1%	50.7	F	IL	MCHENRY	316	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7387	CARLYLE HEALTHCARE & SR LIVING	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	CARLYLE	109	STONEWALL HCG LLC
7388	Brighton Bay Center for Rehabilitation and Healing	0.1%	50.7	C	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	ARK POST ACUTE NETWORK LLC
7389	FRANCISCAN VILLAGE	0.1%	50.7	C	IL	LEMONT	127	FRANCISCAN SISTERS OF CHICAGO SERVICES CORPORATION
7390	O'NEILL HEALTHCARE MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	0.1%	50.7	D	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	82	O NEILL MANAGEMENT LLC
7391	ARCADIA CARE PEORIA HEIGHTS	0.1%	50.7	F	IL	PEORIA HEIGHTS	110	—
7392	Glenbridge Health And Rehabilitation	0.1%	50.7	F	NC	Boone	134	—
7393	QUALITY LIFE SERVICES - NEW CASTLE	0.1%	50.7	B	PA	NEW CASTLE	204	SUGAR CREEK REST INC
7394	BIRCH POINTE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	D	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7395	HERITAGE HALL BLACKSBURG	0.1%	50.7	B	VA	BLACKSBURG	179	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7396	MAPLE GARDENS REHABILITIATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	EATON	85	BRAUNSTEIN BEARS 2016 TRUST
7397	ELBA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	0.1%	50.7	A	AL	ELBA	111	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
7398	LAKE HAVEN NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.1%	50.7	F	FL	DUNEDIN	104	VRD 10 HLDCO LLC
7399	WELBROOK YUMA OPCO LLC	0.1%	50.7	A	AZ	YUMA	41	—
7400	LAUREL RIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	A	CT	RIDGEFIELD	126	YSRO TRUST

Showing 7,351–7,400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.