Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,401–7,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7401	RIVER VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	CO	DEL NORTE	60	CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
7402	EDENBROOK AT HAMPTON	0.1%	50.7	B	PA	WILKES BARRE	104	—
7403	Mt. Olympus Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	50.7	C	UT	Salt Lake City	100	CASCADES HEALTHCARE LLC
7404	Sunnyslope Nursing Home	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	BOWERSTON	50	CAPITAL HEALTH SERVICES INC
7405	BAYWOOD CROSSING REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTE	0.1%	50.7	A	TX	PASADENA	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7406	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF CLACKAMAS	0.1%	50.7	B	OR	GLADSTONE	87	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
7407	Mission View Health Center	0.1%	50.7	B	CA	San Luis Obispo	162	COMPASS HEALTH INC
7408	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT ARLINGTON WEST	0.1%	50.7	B	MD	BALTIMORE	82	SIYATA DSHMAYA LLC
7409	LAKEWOOD VILLA	0.1%	50.7	B	CO	LAKEWOOD	57	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
7410	BELLHAVEN CENTER FOR REHAB AND NURSING CARE	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	BROOKHAVEN	240	—
7411	The Lodge at Mills River	0.1%	50.7	A	NC	Mills River	50	ARDENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CO
7412	HERITAGE SQUARE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	BLYTHEVILLE	86	BWDV HOLDINGS LLC
7413	HACIENDA OAKS AT BEEVILLE	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	BEEVILLE	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7414	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ST MARTIN VILLAGE	0.1%	50.7	B	SD	RAPID CITY	60	SANFORD
7415	DIXON REHAB & HCC	0.1%	50.7	C	IL	DIXON	97	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
7416	Charlotte Hall Veterans Home	0.1%	50.7	B	MD	CHARLOTTE HALL	286	STATE OF MARYLAND CENTRAL PAYROLL BUREAU
7417	ROSELAWN GARDENS NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	A	OH	ALLIANCE	44	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
7418	MANOR AT ELFINDALE, THE	0.1%	50.7	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	100	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
7419	MAGNOLIA SQUARE NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	50.7	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7420	HALSTEAD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	KS	HALSTEAD	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
7421	CLINTON HEALTHCARE LLC - SNF	0.1%	50.7	A	MS	CLINTON	121	—
7422	IGNITE MEDICAL MCHENRY	0.1%	50.7	C	IL	MCHENRY	84	—
7423	EDENBROOK ON SECOND AVE	0.1%	50.7	C	PA	KINGSTON	160	LZ PA HOLDINGS LLC
7424	NORWICH REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	NORWICH	80	—
7425	VANCREST OF DELPHOS	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	DELPHOS	99	VANCREST MANAGEMENT CORP
7426	HEALTH CENTER AT GALLOWAY, THE	0.1%	50.7	C	NJ	GALLOWAY TOWNSHIP	120	TWOMAGNETS LLC
7427	VILLAGE ON THE ISLE	0.1%	50.7	A	FL	VENICE	48	—
7428	Lantern Park Specialty Care	0.1%	50.7	C	IA	Coralville	90	CARE INITIATIVES
7429	Aria at Mitchell Manor	0.1%	50.7	B	WI	WEST ALLIS	50	—
7430	Carecore at Gaymont	0.1%	50.7	D	OH	NORWALK	88	FRANK GUNZBURG 2015 SUCCESSION TRUST
7431	SUNSHINE HEALTH CARE, INC	0.1%	50.7	A	MS	PONTOTOC	60	—
7432	Complete Care at Laurelton, LLC	0.1%	50.7	F	NJ	BRICK	180	EEF CAPITAL LLC
7433	GLENDIVE MEDICAL CENTER N H	0.1%	50.7	A	MT	GLENDIVE	36	BILLINGS CLINIC
7434	Klondike Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	50.7	B	KY	Louisville	62	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
7435	NORTH BEND POST ACUTE	0.1%	50.7	C	WA	NORTH BEND	64	FOUNDATION HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
7436	PEARL AT THE TILLERS	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	OSWEGO	105	REG 2018 IRREVOCABLE TRUST U A D 1 1 18
7437	RUSSELLVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	RUSSELLVILLE	100	—
7438	Chateau Terrebonne Health Care Center	0.1%	50.7	A	LA	HOUMA	197	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
7439	WATERS OF WABASH SKILLED NURSING FACILITY EAST THE	0.1%	50.7	C	IN	WABASH	84	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7440	Aspen Park of Cascadia	0.1%	50.7	B	ID	Moscow	70	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
7441	Flannery Oaks Guest House	0.1%	50.7	C	LA	Baton Rouge	130	QSST TRUST FOR MARSHALL TODD QUIRK
7442	Coeur d Alene Health of Cascadia	0.1%	50.7	C	ID	Coeur d'Alene	117	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
7443	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG H & R WARWICK FOREST	0.1%	50.7	C	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	209	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
7444	EVERGREEN HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	OH	MONTPELIER	73	RRW LLC
7445	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF RAYMO	0.1%	50.7	F	TX	RAYMONDVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7446	PONTIAC NURSING HOME	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	OSWEGO	80	—
7447	Eskaton Village Care Center	0.1%	50.7	A	CA	Carmichael	35	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED
7448	TOLSTOY FOUNDATION REHABILITATION AND NRSG CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	NY	VALLEY COTTAGE	96	—
7449	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC	0.1%	50.7	C	OK	TULSA	104	—
7450	Focused Care at Sherman	0.1%	50.7	D	TX	Sherman	0	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC

Showing 7,401–7,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.