Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,451–7,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7451	SPRING CREEK HEALTH & REHAB	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	CABOT	109	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7452	Alpine Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	50.7	B	LA	Ruston	144	—
7453	COLONIAL NURSING CENTER OF ROCKFORD	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	ROCKFORD	34	—
7454	WELLBROOKE OF WESTFIELD	0.1%	50.7	D	IN	WESTFIELD	70	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
7455	SOUTHLAND HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	GA	PEACHTREE CITY	155	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7456	Village of Lebanon	0.1%	50.7	B	KY	Lebanon	54	—
7457	GUTHRIE CORTLAND MEDICAL CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	CORTLAND	80	THE GUTHRIE CLINIC
7458	ASHLEY MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	MO	BOONVILLE	52	MO OP HOLDCO LLC
7459	Alpine Valley Post Acute and Healthcare Center	0.1%	50.7	B	PA	LEBANON	105	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
7460	Desert Highlands Care Center	0.1%	50.7	A	AZ	KINGMAN	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7461	PEARL OF CRYSTAL LAKE, THE	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	CRYSTAL LAKE	97	REG 2018 IRREVOCABLE TRUST U A D 1 1 18
7462	BEEBE RETIREMENT CENTER, INC.	0.1%	50.7	B	AR	BEEBE	105	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7463	Magnolia Crossing Nursing and Rehabilitation Cente	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	Houston	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7464	60 WEST	0.1%	50.7	A	CT	ROCKY HILL	95	VANTAGE CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC
7465	Aviata at Sand Key	0.1%	50.7	D	FL	CLEARWATER	120	ASP FL LLC
7466	AGILITY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	B	WA	UNIVERSITY PLACE	120	—
7467	FULTON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION LLC	0.1%	50.7	D	GA	ATLANTA	109	STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
7468	AVIATA AT JACKSONVILLE	0.1%	50.7	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE	116	—
7469	TERRACE OF ST CLOUD, THE	0.1%	50.7	A	FL	SAINT CLOUD	120	—
7470	Homestead Hills	0.1%	50.7	B	NC	Winston-Salem	40	MAXWELL GROUP INC
7471	CANYON VIEW CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	CO	PALISADE	88	BEECAN HEALTH CO LLC
7472	COVENANT SHORES HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	WA	MERCER ISLAND	43	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
7473	SANDPIPER HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	A	KS	WICHITA	104	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
7474	Complete Care at Jefferson Meadows LLC	0.1%	50.7	D	WI	Baraboo	102	SMS 2021 TRUST
7475	SURREY PLACE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	A	FL	BRADENTON	74	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
7476	MORNINGSTAR RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	NY	OSWEGO	120	—
7477	SHERIDAN HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	AR	SHERIDAN	121	JEJ ASSETS LP
7478	KENTON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	KENTON	125	AOM HEALTHCARE LLC
7479	FUTURE CARE SANDTOWN-WINCHESTER	0.1%	50.7	B	MD	BALTIMORE	148	FUTURE CARE HEALTH AND MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
7480	Belle Terrace	0.1%	50.7	C	PA	QUAKERTOWN	59	—
7481	APERION CARE SUMMERFIELD	0.1%	50.7	A	IN	CLOVERDALE	43	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7482	GARDENS AT TERRACINA HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	A	FL	NAPLES	30	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
7483	COUNTRY CLUB RETIREMENT CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	MOUNT VERNON	76	HOLLAND GROUP II LTD
7484	JAMES RIVER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	50.7	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7485	MIRA VISTA COURT	0.1%	50.7	C	TX	FORT WORTH	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7486	HERITAGE HOUSE AT KELLER REHAB & NURSING	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	KELLER	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
7487	PENINSULA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	50.7	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	200	—
7488	COTTON POINT LIVING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	F	MO	MATTHEWS	98	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7489	Woodside Manor Nursing Home Inc	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	Rochester	44	—
7490	PINCKNEYVILLE NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	PINCKNEYVILLE	60	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
7491	Avir at Courtyard	0.1%	50.7	B	TX	Houston	0	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
7492	HERITAGE HALL CLINTWOOD	0.1%	50.7	A	VA	CLINTWOOD	100	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7493	WESTMINSTER COMMONS	0.1%	50.7	C	GA	ATLANTA	90	ANDWELL INVESTMENTS LLC
7494	NORTH STARR POSTACUTE CARE	0.1%	50.7	A	CA	TURLOCK	31	RMG CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
7495	PLEASANT LAKE VILLA	0.1%	50.7	B	OH	PARMA	209	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
7496	MOMENTUM AT SOUTH BAY FOR REHAB AND NURSING	0.1%	50.7	A	NY	EAST ISLIP	160	—
7497	INTEGRITY HC OF CARBONDALE	0.1%	50.7	D	IL	CARBONDALE	131	—
7498	MEDINA NURSING CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	IL	DURAND	89	OXMATI MANAGEMENT LLC
7499	CEDAR VALLEY NSG & REHAB CTR	0.1%	50.7	A	GA	CEDARTOWN	100	CYPRESS OPERATING LLC
7500	LIGHTHOUSE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	50.7	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	149	PACIFIC HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC

Showing 7,451–7,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.