Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,601–7,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7601	Majestic Care of Flushing	0.1%	49.0	F	MI	Flushing	140	DEM FAMILY TRUST I
7602	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT GLEN BURNIE	0.1%	49.0	C	MD	GLEN BURNIE	190	A&R STERN FAMILY MD7 LLC
7603	The North Shore Estates Llc	0.1%	49.0	A	MN	DULUTH	70	—
7604	NEIGHBORHOODS AT QUAIL CREEK, THE	0.1%	49.0	A	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
7605	PARK TERRACE CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	NY	CORONA	200	—
7606	VAN WERT MANOR	0.1%	49.0	C	OH	VAN WERT	62	HCF INC
7607	COUNTRY LAWN CTR FOR REHAB	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	NAVARRE	88	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
7608	Blue Lake Post Acute	0.1%	49.0	F	FL	DELAND	60	KMOM LLC
7609	RIDGECREST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	B	AR	JONESBORO	135	RHC OPERATIONS INC
7610	DOCTORS SUBACUTE HEALTHCARE, LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	NJ	PATERSON	54	—
7611	Eagle Point Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.1%	49.0	C	IA	Clinton	75	STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
7612	Woodway Nursing & Rehab	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	Houston	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7613	ALFREDO GONZALEZ TEXAS STATE VETERANS HOME	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	MCALLEN	160	—
7614	Good Samaritan Society - St Luke's Village	0.1%	49.0	D	NE	Kearney	60	SANFORD
7615	PREMIER HEALTHCARE OF NEW HARMONY	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	NEW HARMONY	96	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
7616	Cedar Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	49.0	B	UT	Cedar City	120	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
7617	AMERICAN VILLAGE	0.1%	49.0	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	150	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7618	REGENTS PARK OF WINTER PARK	0.1%	49.0	F	FL	WINTER PARK	120	FL HC INSTITUTE OPCO LLC
7619	AVANTE AT ST CLOUD INC	0.1%	49.0	A	FL	SAINT CLOUD	131	AG HOLDINGS INC
7620	BROOKMONT HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	PA	EFFORT	119	—
7621	Spanish Meadows	0.1%	49.0	D	TX	Brownsville	119	—
7622	CYPRESS GARDEN CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB	0.1%	49.0	B	NY	FLUSHING	278	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
7623	SANCTUARY POINTE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	CINCINNATI	124	CONCEPT REHAB INC
7624	TWIN MAPLES HEALTHCARE, INC	0.1%	49.0	B	CT	DURHAM	44	—
7625	Colonial Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	F	TX	Lindale	0	HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7626	BURTON HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	OH	BURTON	90	WINDSOR HOUSE INC
7627	Kensington Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	C	KY	Elizabethtown	82	ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
7628	GREENFIELD CARE CENTER OF SOUTH GATE	0.1%	49.0	C	CA	SOUTH GATE	99	—
7629	Brookview Healthcare Center	0.1%	49.0	C	SC	Gaffney	132	—
7630	Rivertown Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	B	AL	MONTGOMERY	121	GNH IRRV TR
7631	Stratford Manor Rehabilitation and Care Center	0.1%	49.0	B	NJ	WEST ORANGE	131	—
7632	Lubbock Health Care Center	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	Lubbock	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
7633	BRIARFIELD PLACE	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	BOARDMAN	58	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
7634	AUTUMN AEGIS NURSING HOME	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	LORAIN	99	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7635	LIBBY CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	MT	LIBBY	101	CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
7636	SOUTHERN PINES NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	FL	NEW PORT RICHEY	120	ZBL 18 LLC
7637	CRYSTAL LAKE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	C	NJ	BAYVILLE	235	SJMR LLC
7638	THE LAURENWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	F	TX	DUNCANVILLE	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7639	GREENBRIAR NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	EATON	74	LIONSTONE CARNATION OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
7640	WINTER GARDEN REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	FL	WINTER GARDEN	120	—
7641	GOLDWATER CARE SPRING VALLEY	0.1%	49.0	C	IL	SPRING VALLEY	98	YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
7642	Leonard Florence Center for Living	0.1%	49.0	A	MA	CHELSEA	100	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
7643	CONTINENTAL CARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	49.0	B	MT	BUTTE	100	SWEETWATER CARE OPCO LLC
7644	Avera Morningside Heights Care Center	0.1%	49.0	D	MN	MARSHALL	76	AVERA HEALTH
7645	CITADEL CARE CENTER-WILMETTE	0.1%	49.0	B	IL	WILMETTE	80	ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
7646	Parklane West Healthcare Center	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	San Antonio	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
7647	Country Village Care	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	Angleton	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
7648	STAR CITY REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	49.0	C	VA	ROANOKE	116	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7649	FUTURE CARE OLD COURT	0.1%	49.0	A	MD	RANDALLSTOWN	141	ALVIN POWERS RESIDUARY TRUST FBO JEFFREY POWERS
7650	BLUE RIDGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	49.0	C	VA	HARRISONBURG	117	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST

Showing 7,601–7,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.