Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,651–7,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7651	CAPRICE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	OH	NORTH LIMA	75	JCTH HOLDINGS INC
7652	MANSFIELD MEDICAL LODGE	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	MANSFIELD	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7653	Orchard Valley Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	49.0	C	NC	Hendersonville	134	PISGAH HOLDCO LLC
7654	MANOR OF GRANDE VILLAGE	0.1%	49.0	C	OH	TWINSBURG	88	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7655	MONTCARE AT WHEATON	0.1%	49.0	B	MD	WHEATON	94	MD3 OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
7656	EMBASSY OF LEBANON	0.1%	49.0	B	OH	LEBANON	79	—
7657	CROWN PARK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	NY	CORTLAND	200	—
7658	HUTSONWOOD AT BRAZIL	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	BRAZIL	86	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
7659	Twin City Trails of Journey LLC	0.1%	49.0	B	GA	TWIN CITY	110	BARRES LLC
7660	LAKE PRINCE WOODS, INC	0.1%	49.0	A	VA	SUFFOLK	40	EVERYAGE
7661	NEW IBERIA MANOR NORTH	0.1%	49.0	C	LA	NEW IBERIA	101	NEXION HEALTH INC
7662	MEDICALODGES BUTLER	0.1%	49.0	B	MO	BUTLER	105	MEDICALODGES INC
7663	St. Joseph's Care Center	0.1%	49.0	A	TX	McGregor	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7664	CYPRESS CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	FL	WILDWOOD	180	FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO LLC
7665	DIVERSICARE OF LARNED	0.1%	49.0	A	KS	LARNED	80	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
7666	HERITAGE HALL - LAUREL MEADOWS	0.1%	49.0	A	VA	LAUREL FORK	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7667	Complete Care at Maple Grove LLC	0.1%	49.0	D	WI	Madison	184	SMS 2021 TRUST
7668	Seaside Healthcare LLC	0.1%	49.0	A	ME	Portland	147	—
7669	ADVANCED REHAB CENTER OF TUSTIN	0.1%	49.0	B	CA	SANTA ANA	99	—
7670	MILLBRAE CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	CA	MILLBRAE	140	—
7671	LAUREL PARK BEHAVIORAL HEALTH CENTER	0.1%	49.0	D	CA	POMONA	43	—
7672	Southwood Nursing and Retirement	0.1%	49.0	B	NC	Clinton	100	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7673	APERION CARE DOLTON	0.1%	49.0	D	IL	DOLTON	88	FREDERICK S FRANKEL TRUST
7674	AXIOM HEALTHCARE OF ROSICLARE	0.1%	49.0	B	IL	ROSICLARE	62	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
7675	Montclair Care Center	0.1%	49.0	C	NJ	MONTCLAIR	64	—
7676	BAYVIEW CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	FL	EUSTIS	120	LCE PARTNERS LLC
7677	CANTON OAKS	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	CANTON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7678	LITTLEFORK CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	MN	LITTLEFORK	42	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
7679	The Madison on Marsh	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	Carrollton	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7680	LAKE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	B	TX	LEWISVILLE	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7681	SPRINGS AT LAFAYETTE, THE	0.1%	49.0	C	IN	LAFAYETTE	70	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7682	MONTGOMERY VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	MD	GAITHERSBURG	147	—
7683	MARQUIS FOREST GROVE POST ACUTE REHAB	0.1%	49.0	B	OR	FOREST GROVE	63	MARQUIS COMPANIES I INC
7684	SUNTERRA SPRINGS INDEPENDENCE	0.1%	49.0	B	MO	INDEPENDENCE	38	BALL VENTURES LLC
7685	ST FRANCIS REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	C	MA	WORCESTER	137	WELLINGTON HEALTHCARE LLC
7686	Atlantic View Post Acute	0.1%	49.0	C	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	154	GEORGE S MITCHELL JR RVOC TR
7687	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SCOTTSDALE	0.1%	49.0	D	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7688	MONTGOMERY PLACE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	KS	INDEPENDENCE	43	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
7689	ADVINIACARE AT NORTHBRIDGE	0.1%	49.0	C	MA	NORTHBRIDGE	154	FREDERICK S FRANKEL TRUST
7690	Greenway Health and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	0.1%	49.0	C	AL	GRAND BAY	92	GNH IRRV TR
7691	Arroyo Grande Care Center	0.1%	49.0	A	CA	Arroyo Grande	99	COMPASS HEALTH INC
7692	AVIR AT SAN ANGELO	0.1%	49.0	C	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7693	EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST	0.1%	49.0	C	MN	ROCHESTER	48	—
7694	Avir at Tierra Este	0.1%	49.0	D	TX	EL PASO	0	—
7695	Jesup Ridge of Journey LLC	0.1%	49.0	F	GA	JESUP	72	BARRES LLC
7696	MOUNTAIN LAUREL REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.1%	49.0	C	VA	RURAL RETREAT	120	YDI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7697	CORDOVA WELLNESS AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	TN	CORDOVA	240	ECM HOLDINGS LLC
7698	SHELL LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.1%	49.0	A	WI	SHELL LAKE	50	—
7699	SHAKOPEE FRIENDSHIP MANOR	0.1%	49.0	A	MN	SHAKOPEE	60	—
7700	Anchor Care and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	49.0	C	NJ	HAZLET	170	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP

Showing 7,651–7,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.