Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,851–7,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7851	SILVERCREST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	FL	CRESTVIEW	60	ZBL PANHANDLE 7 LLC
7852	OAKS OF CLEARWATER, THE	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	CLEARWATER	60	—
7853	THE PLAZA AT RICHARDSON	0.1%	47.1	B	TX	RICHARDSON	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7854	THE SPRINGS OF PARK AVE	0.1%	47.1	A	AR	HOT SPRINGS	95	BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
7855	The Villa at West Branch	0.1%	47.1	D	MI	West Branch	70	OMNIA OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
7856	WINDMERE	0.1%	47.1	C	NJ	NORTH HALEDON	57	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER
7857	SAGE POST ACUTE	0.1%	47.1	C	CA	HAYWARD	99	—
7858	SPRING HILLS POST ACUTE HAMILTON	0.1%	47.1	C	NJ	HAMILTON	55	—
7859	AUTUMNWOOD CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	TIFFIN	93	YFR EQUITIES LLC
7860	The Stewart Health Center	0.1%	47.1	A	NC	Charlotte	65	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
7861	Life Care Center of Boise	0.1%	47.1	A	ID	Boise	153	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7862	MEMORIAL WOODLAND VILLAGE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	MS	DIAMONDHEAD	132	CORPORATE MANAGEMENT INC
7863	WABASH SENIOR LIVING & REHAB	0.1%	47.1	B	IL	CARMI	156	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
7864	LIFE CARE CENTER OF EVERGREEN	0.1%	47.1	C	CO	EVERGREEN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
7865	HOUSTON HOUSE	0.1%	47.1	A	MO	HOUSTON	96	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7866	Sprenger Healthcare of Bluffton	0.1%	47.1	D	SC	Bluffton	60	CMS & CO MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7867	SELF SKILLED NURSING & REHAB	0.1%	47.1	A	AL	HUEYTOWN	131	TRAYLOR PORTER HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
7868	AVIATA AT TALLAHASSEE	0.1%	47.1	D	FL	TALLAHASSEE	180	—
7869	HAWTHORNE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING OF	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	BRANDON	132	HAWTHORNE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
7870	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING PLEASANT HILL	0.1%	47.1	F	MO	PLEASANT HILL	90	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
7871	CASSELMAN HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	PA	MEYERSDALE	99	HILLEL TROPPER 2016 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
7872	SUN HARBOR HEALTHCARE	0.1%	47.1	C	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	120	SH INDIGO CITADEL INVESTORS LLC
7873	REGENCY HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	CT	WALLINGFORD	130	—
7874	LARCHWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	0.1%	47.1	D	CO	GRAND JUNCTION	130	—
7875	NORMANDY NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	116	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
7876	The Orchards at Armada	0.1%	47.1	B	MI	Armada	67	MI OPCO HOLDCO LLC
7877	BELAIR CARE CENTER INC	0.1%	47.1	A	NY	BELLMORE	102	ESTATE OF MAYER LAUFER
7878	Hickory Ridge of Temperance	0.1%	47.1	B	MI	Temperance	88	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
7879	BUCKINGHAM VALLEY REHABILITATION AND NURSINGCENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	PA	BUCKINGHAM	130	GOLD PA TRUST
7880	BRIDGEPOINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.1%	47.1	B	IN	VINCENNES	80	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
7881	HERITAGE HALL DILLWYN	0.1%	47.1	A	VA	DILLWYN	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7882	CARE NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	BROWNWOOD	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7883	DREIER'S NURSING CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	CA	GLENDALE	52	—
7884	BROOKDALE UNIVERSITY PARK SNF (AL)	0.1%	47.1	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	66	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
7885	NORTH COUNTRY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	NY	MASSENA	140	—
7886	TOTAL REHAB MOORESTOWN	0.1%	47.1	C	NJ	MOORESTOWN	124	—
7887	ARBOR GROVE VILLAGE	0.1%	47.1	B	IN	GREENSBURG	83	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7888	MABANK NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	TX	MABANK	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7889	JEFFERSON HEALTH CARE	0.1%	47.1	D	MO	LEES SUMMIT	118	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7890	ALDEN VALLEY RIDGE REHAB & HCC	0.1%	47.1	C	IL	BLOOMINGDALE	207	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7891	LOUISVILLE HEALTHCARE LLC	0.1%	47.1	A	MS	LOUISVILLE	60	TREND CONSULTANTS LLC
7892	THE GARDENS OF ST. FRANCIS	0.1%	47.1	D	OH	OREGON	60	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
7893	Durham Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	47.1	C	NC	Durham	126	LBS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
7894	CROWNE HEALTH CARE OF GREENVILLE	0.1%	47.1	A	AL	GREENVILLE	118	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
7895	ARCADIA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	FL	PENSACOLA	170	ZBL PANHANDLE 7 LLC
7896	ALS WOODSTOCK INC	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	WOODSTOCK	42	LIONSTONE ALS OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
7897	Bastrop Lost Pines Nursing and Rehabilitation Cent	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	Bastrop	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
7898	HENRY REHAB AND NURSING	0.1%	47.1	B	IL	HENRY	81	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
7899	BRENTWOOD PLACE FOUR	0.1%	47.1	B	TX	DALLAS	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7900	Whisperwood Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	Lubbock	22	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1

Showing 7,851–7,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.