Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

7,951–8,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
7951	AVIATA AT HARTS HARBOR	0.1%	47.1	D	FL	JACKSONVILLE	180	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
7952	AVANTE AT LEESBURG, INC	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	LEESBURG	116	AG HOLDINGS INC
7953	Coryell Health Rehab Living at the Meadows	0.1%	47.1	B	TX	Gatesville	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7954	STRONGSVILLE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	47.1	D	OH	STRONGSVILLE	99	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
7955	Golden Age Care Center	0.1%	47.1	A	IA	Centerville	46	STEGOTEK INC
7956	Wolfe County Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	47.1	A	KY	Campton	100	SEKY HOLDING CO
7957	ELDORADO REHAB & HEALTHCARE	0.1%	47.1	B	IL	ELDORADO	99	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
7958	Peak Resources-Cherryville	0.1%	47.1	A	NC	Cherryville	70	PEAK RESOURCES INC
7959	Delavan Health Services	0.1%	47.1	A	WI	DELAVAN	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
7960	The Pavilion at Kenton	0.1%	47.1	A	KY	Covington	82	—
7961	Vacaville Convalescent and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	47.1	A	CA	Vacaville	120	—
7962	GRANDELL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	NY	LONG BEACH	278	—
7963	MAIN STREET TERRACE CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	LANCASTER	50	—
7964	ALDEN MEADOW PARK HCC	0.1%	47.1	D	WI	CLINTON	94	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
7965	ENVIVE OF LIBERTY	0.1%	47.1	B	IN	LIBERTY	60	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
7966	ZIONSVILLE MEADOWS	0.1%	47.1	C	IN	ZIONSVILLE	167	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
7967	TUSCANY VILLAGE	0.1%	47.1	A	TX	PEARLAND	0	MEMORIAL MEDICAL CENTER
7968	NORTH BANK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	0.1%	47.1	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	120	—
7969	RUSHVILLE NURSING & REHAB CTR	0.1%	47.1	D	IL	RUSHVILLE	96	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
7970	VICTORIA GARDENS OF FRISCO	0.1%	47.1	F	TX	FRISCO	0	PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
7971	BRIGHTON CORNERSTONE GROUP, LLC	0.1%	47.1	B	KY	MADISONVILLE	40	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
7972	Iowa City Rehab & Health Care	0.1%	47.1	C	IA	Iowa City	89	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
7973	Oakhaven Nursing Center	0.1%	47.1	A	SC	Darlington	88	WILSON SENIOR CARE INC
7974	CLOVER HEALTH CARE	0.1%	47.1	D	ME	AUBURN	109	CONTINUUM HOME SERVICES INC
7975	Brown's Health and Rehabilitation	0.1%	47.1	C	GA	STATESBORO	63	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
7976	AVALON CARE CENTER AT NORTHPOINTE	0.1%	47.1	D	WA	SPOKANE	119	RELIANT PRO REHAB LLC
7977	Hillcrest Country Estates-Cottages	0.1%	47.1	A	NE	Papillion	48	HILLCREST HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
7978	LONGMEADOW HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	JUSTIN	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
7979	CREEKSIDE CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	0.1%	47.1	A	TN	MADISON	139	MD FRIEDMAN FAMILY 2017 TRUST
7980	GREENVILLE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	TX	GREENVILLE	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7981	BAY VIEW REHABILITATION HOSPITAL, LLC	0.1%	47.1	B	CA	ALAMEDA	180	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
7982	VI AT AVENTURA	0.1%	47.1	C	FL	AVENTURA	40	CLASSIC RESIDENCE MANAGEMENT LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
7983	CARRIAGE SQUARE REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	C	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	130	AMA HOLDINGS LLC
7984	William R Courtney Texas State Veterans Home	0.1%	47.1	A	TX	Temple	160	CARE INNS OF TEXAS TEMPLE LTD
7985	EDEN VISTA BURR RIDGE	0.1%	47.1	B	IL	BURR RIDGE	29	CHICAGOLAND SENIOR LIVING HOLDINGS LLC
7986	MARGATE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	MARGATE	170	VIERA MARGATE MEZZ BORROWER LLC
7987	SEASIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	A	FL	DAYTONA BEACH	192	BLUE SPRING HEALTHCARE PARTNERS LLC
7988	HERITAGE HALL GRUNDY	0.1%	47.1	A	VA	GRUNDY	120	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7989	HERITAGE HALL FRONT ROYAL	0.1%	47.1	A	VA	FRONT ROYAL	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
7990	ST JAMES HOUSE OF BAYTOWN	0.1%	47.1	A	TX	BAYTOWN	0	—
7991	Oak Hills Living Center	0.1%	47.1	D	OK	Jones	160	—
7992	Medina Valley Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	47.1	C	TX	Castroville	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
7993	SIKESTON CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	MO	SIKESTON	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
7994	LODGE NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	LOVELAND	120	CONCEPT REHAB INC
7995	BROOKDALE GREENWOOD VILLAGE	0.1%	47.1	B	CO	GREENWOOD VILLAGE	90	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
7996	EVERSTEAD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	47.1	D	AL	RUSSELLVILLE	50	GNH IRRV TR
7997	EAST PARK CARE CENTER	0.1%	47.1	B	OH	BROOK PARK	57	—
7998	YUKON KUSKOKWIM ELDER'S HOME	0.1%	47.1	C	AK	BETHEL	18	—
7999	VIVO HEALTHCARE WAUCHULA	0.1%	47.1	D	FL	WAUCHULA	79	NMJ HOLDINGS LLC
8000	NMMC BALDWYN NURSING FACILITY	0.1%	47.1	D	MS	BALDWYN	107	—

Showing 7,951–8,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.