Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

8,151–8,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
8151	BROOKDALE SKYLINE	0.1%	44.6	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	82	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
8152	REGALCARE AT HOLYOKE	0.1%	44.6	B	MA	HOLYOKE	102	RC OPCO HOLDCO LLC
8153	DELMAR GARDENS OF MERAMEC VALLEY	0.1%	44.6	A	MO	FENTON	190	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
8154	SAGEBROOK NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	CEDAR PARK	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8155	BRADFORD HILLS NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	PA	TROY	200	—
8156	OAK RIDGE MANOR	0.1%	44.6	C	TX	BROWNWOOD	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8157	THE RESERVE AT RICHARDSON	0.1%	44.6	F	TX	RICHARDSON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8158	Martin Luther Care Center	0.1%	44.6	A	MN	BLOOMINGTON	137	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
8159	RESTHAVEN NURSING & REHAB CENTER, LLC	0.1%	44.6	D	LA	LAKE CHARLES	162	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
8160	ROCKET CITY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	AL	HUNTSVILLE	159	M MELB OPCO LLC
8161	BRICKYARD HEALTHCARE - PETERSBURG CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	IN	PETERSBURG	63	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8162	VANCREST OF ST MARY'S	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	ST MARYS	50	JOINT TOWNSHIP DISTRICT MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
8163	ADVINIACARE NEWTON WELLESLEY	0.1%	44.6	B	MA	WELLESLEY	110	—
8164	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MORGAN COUNTY	0.1%	44.6	C	TN	WARTBURG	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8165	Seneca Health & Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	B	SC	Seneca	132	CARESTRONG LLC
8166	THORNTON CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	D	CO	THORNTON	101	LONG PEAK OPCO LLC
8167	ROWLETT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	ROWLETT	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8168	FOUR SEASONS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	NY	BROOKLYN	270	—
8169	Great River Care Center	0.1%	44.6	B	IA	Mc Gregor	39	KEVIN PERRINJAQUET ESTATE
8170	Heritage Home Of Florence Inc	0.1%	44.6	B	SC	Florence	132	—
8171	REGENCY CARE CENTER AT MONROE	0.1%	44.6	B	WA	MONROE	92	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
8172	Avir at Temple East	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	TEMPLE	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8173	Nassau Rehabilitation & Nursing Center	0.1%	44.6	C	NY	HEMPSTEAD	280	EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
8174	SOUTH SHORE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	NY	FREEPORT	100	—
8175	Cabarrus Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.1%	44.6	D	NC	Concord	120	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
8176	REDBANK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALING	0.1%	44.6	C	NJ	RED BANK	180	SEAM NY 2020 TRUST
8177	BLUE ASH HEALTH & REHAB	0.1%	44.6	D	OH	CINCINNATI	64	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
8178	Good Samaritan Society - Blackduck	0.1%	44.6	A	MN	BLACKDUCK	30	SANFORD
8179	COUNTRY MEADOW REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	OH	BELLVILLE	48	BRAUNSTEIN BEARS 2016 TRUST
8180	BRIDGEWAY CARE AND REHAB CENTER AT BRIDGEWATER	0.1%	44.6	B	NJ	BRIDGEWATER	151	—
8181	Mission Point Health Campus of Jackson	0.1%	44.6	C	MI	Jackson	50	MISSION POINT MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
8182	COMMUNITY CARE NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	F	IL	CHICAGO	204	LAUREATE CHICAGOLAND HOLDINGS LLC
8183	The Greens at Gastonia	0.1%	44.6	C	NC	Gastonia	162	10 26 NATIONWIDE TR
8184	MASONICARE AT BISHOP WICKE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	CT	SHELTON	120	MASONICARE INC
8185	ALHAMBRA REHAB & HEALTHCARE	0.1%	44.6	B	IL	ALHAMBRA	57	WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC
8186	HILLVIEW COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	A	TN	DRESDEN	70	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
8187	CHARLESTOWN PLACE AT NEW ALBANY	0.1%	44.6	C	IN	NEW ALBANY	158	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
8188	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SULLIVAN	0.1%	44.6	C	MO	SULLIVAN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8189	ST VINCENT'S - A PROSPERA COMMUNITY	0.1%	44.6	B	ND	BISMARCK	97	SANFORD
8190	MACOMB POST ACUTE CARE CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	IL	MACOMB	80	E NEWHOUSE FAMILY TRUST
8191	AVAMERE REHABILITATION OF BURIEN	0.1%	44.6	D	WA	BURIEN	140	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
8192	FIESER NURSING CENTER	0.1%	44.6	C	MO	FENTON	47	—
8193	LAKE CITY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.1%	44.6	B	FL	LAKE CITY	113	FDZ CONSULTING LLC
8194	PREMIER AT PERRY VILLAGE FOR NURSING AND REHAB, LL	0.1%	44.6	C	PA	NEW BLOOMFIELD	118	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
8195	THE HEIGHTS OF TOMBALL	0.1%	44.6	B	TX	TOMBALL	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
8196	SABAL PALMS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	LARGO	244	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
8197	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ORLANDO	0.1%	44.6	A	FL	ORLANDO	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
8198	Madonna Manor	0.1%	44.6	C	KY	Villa Hills	60	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
8199	Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Whitehall	0.1%	44.6	D	MI	Whitehall	125	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
8200	TIMBERLANE HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.1%	44.6	B	AR	EL DORADO	106	RHC OPERATIONS INC

Showing 8,151–8,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.